Halicke: Figuring out the right formula for Smith's new offense

Just breaking down the Steelers' offense on paper, it should be better in 2024. The quarterback room was overhauled and has a much higher ceiling. The Steelers still have a phenomenal duo at running back. They have a budding star at receiver. And, this franchise has focused a lot of attention on rebuilding the offensive line through the draft.

But how can it all fit together? How can Arthur Smith put together the right formula to produce actual points, not just optimism?

Everything starts with the quarterback. And since Russell Wilson has "pole position" -- Mike Tomlin's words -- to start at quarterback, we'll look primarily at how he best fits in Smith's system and with the players Pittsburgh has.

First and foremost, Wilson is exceptional at throwing the deep ball. He always has, and he's still very good at it:

This is just a beautiful ball from Wilson. It doesn't take him long to see the Commanders go from a two-high shell to Cover 1. Then, he lets this go at his own 14-yard line on the left hash and Marvin Mims Jr. catches this in stride at the opponents' 40-yard line on the left sideline. That is still exceptional arm strength, but also with a great deal of touch.

Now, just imagine George Pickens, Calvin Austin III or Roman Wilson running these go routes. If defenses are stupid enough to play Cover 1 against Wilson on any regular basis, then Smith can dial this stuff up at will and stand a good chance to take large chunks out of the defense.

I was curious about how often teams deployed certain coverages against Wilson last season in Denver, a season in which he completed 66.4% of his passes for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Not too shabby of a season for a guy that Denver willingly ate tens of millions in cap space to boot out of town, especially when you consider Steelers quarterbacks have combined for just 25 touchdowns over the past two seasons.

Anyway, here are the numbers, via Pro Football Focus:

• Cover 0: 4.4%
• Cover 1: 17.4%
• Cover 2: 14.7%
• Cover 3: 30.4%
• Cover 4: 15.2%
• Cover 6: 10.2%

What's really interesting is these numbers aren't all that different from what the Steelers faced last season, where there wasn't a quarterback that was efficient at threatening defenses deep until Mason Rudolph took over:

• Cover 0: 3.9%
• Cover 1: 17.9%
• Cover 2: 15.8%
• Cover 3: 32.9%
• Cover 4: 11.8%
• Cover 6: 10.7%

Now, for the middle-field closed coverages (Cover 1 and 3), the Broncos faced that a tad less often at 47.8% of the time compared to the Steelers at 50.8%. This makes sense because not only do defenses need to better defend the outside deep ball against Wilson, he also doesn't throw to the middle of the field very often. That obviously means defenses can get away with playing middle-field open coverages (Cover 0, 2, 4 and 6) more often.

Here's what's really interesting to me. Wilson likes throwing the deep ball outside the numbers. So, that means defenses can best defend that when playing middle-field open so they can utilize more defenders over the top of routes. Wilson would tear up Cover 1 all day long and Cover 3 is susceptible to underneath routes, which is essentially where the defensive game is nowadays. Just take anything you want underneath, you're not beating us over the top.

But, if the Steelers face a lot of middle-field open, that would align perfectly with what Smith has previously done in Tennessee and Atlanta. His offenses have targeted the middle of the field at will. Look at these two heat maps from Ryan Tannehill in 2020, Smith's last season as offensive coordinator for the Titans:

PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS

This could put defenses in a pick-your-poison situation. Either way they choose to defend, the Steelers should have a strong way to play against it.

The catch here is Wilson does not target the middle of the field. Last season, Wilson only had 78 passing attempts over the middle. For context, only five quarterbacks that made at least 10 starts had fewer attempts to the middle of the field. Something's gotta give there. And, with Pat Freiermuth and Roman Wilson at the offense's disposal, those two could eat it up over the middle. Freiermuth is great at attacking Cover 2, Tampa 2 and other middle-field open looks, and Wilson could be a deadly YAC weapon on crosser like these he ran at Michigan:

Now, currently, the Steelers don't have an established threat to play on the outside opposite Pickens. Wilson will likely start off playing primarily in the slot as he did at Michigan. Austin is a candidate, and the Steelers have a slew of other candidates led by the likes of Van Jefferson and Scotty Miller, both of whom have played for Smith previously.

Either way, with the way the receiver room is currently constructed, defenses don't necessarily have to respect whoever's lined up opposite Pickens. If you need any proof, here's just one glimpse of what teams did against the Steelers last season when Diontae Johnson was out with an injury:

NFL.COM

The Raiders are in Cover 1 here while the Steelers are in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end). Just look at how much the one safety over the top is shaded over the top of Pickens. He's the only eligible receiver on that side of the field while there are four on the other side.

Nobody over the top of four eligibles. That's straight up disrespect to all four of those guys, and a health amount of respect for Pickens.

I'm not suggesting defenses would do this on a frequent basis. But, defenses might be operating under a similar mindset should Omar Khan not acquire an established X receiver to play opposite Pickens. Somebody will have to step up, and I would expect they would be given their opportunities. Defenses aren't going to let Pickens run wild. With him established as the current No. 1 guy, he'll get the extra attention.

Now, there's one big wrinkle to all of this. And, yes, it will also help determine what kind of coverages the Steelers will face: The bleeping running game.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are one of the most dangerous duos at running back. Both racked up more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage last season, one of only two duos to pull off such a feat in 2023. And with both guys entering the final years of their respective contracts, I'd expect both to run like they're pissed off at the ground.

Remember the win over the Seahawks last season? Even with a whole new offensive coordinator on board, I think that's what the Steelers want to do more than anything. As much as the Wilson's and Smith's strengths could put defenses in a bind, the Steelers could really put defenses in a conundrum the same way they did against the Seahawks.

When Seattle loaded the box to stop the run, Rudolph would hit them over the top with throws downfield. Then, when Seattle backed off to better prevent the deep ball, the Steelers tore them to pieces with both Harris and Warren on the ground. It didn't matter what Seattle did, they were going to be in the wrong.

And, with the way the Steelers addressed the offensive line in the draft, I feel this group is better equipped to run Smith's system. In Tennessee and Atlanta, Smith ran a wide zone system, which requires a lot of athleticism up front. The Steelers now have that in abundance after adding Troy Fautanu, Zach Frazier and Mason McCormick in this year's draft.

Pretty much, the Steelers now have an entire starting offensive line that are all athletic enough to execute any block asked of them. And, when you look at what he's asked his centers to do in previous offenses ...

... having that kind of athleticism up front matters. And, it's important to note that these guys aren't athletic little punks. They are maulers that seek out contact and have a bit of a nasty edge to their respective games. 

Though Smith has typically run more wide zone stuff in the past, I'm not entirely convinced it's going to be a situation in which he forces the players to adapt to his system. Rather, I'd expect more of him tailoring the playbook to the players' strengths. And, when it comes to running the ball, there's no doubt that Harris and Warren could both benefit from more gap/man concepts.

Warren's splits are painfully obvious as he averaged a respectable 3.91 yards per carry with a 46.3% success rate in zone concepts last season, but averaged 6.98 yards per carry and 51.5% success rate in gap/man concepts. 

For Harris, despite him being a better zone runner over the course of his pro and college careers, he absolutely shredded defenses with gap/man concepts after Matt Canada's firing last season. From the time Eddie Faulkner and Mike Sullivan took over offensive duties through the end of the season, Harris gained 269 yards on 58 carries in man/gap concepts, an average of 4.64 yards per carry. Most notably, Harris averaged 5.44 yards per carry with a whopping 75% success rate on Power concepts.

Smith wouldn't be the first offensive mind to alter his philosophy in recent years. Both Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay have strayed a bit from their wide zone usage in favor of gap/man concepts, and the Rams benefited from that last season with Kyren Williams finishing third in the NFL in rushing.

Any success the Steelers have on the ground will greatly benefit a strength in Smith's playbook and Wilson's play at quarterback: Good ol' play-action. During Smith's two seasons as offensive coordinator in Tennessee, the Titans used play-action on 27.7% of their passes in 2019, a healthy percentage, then dramatically increased that to 35.9% in 2020, the highest clip in the league.

When passing off play-action last season, Wilson posted 117.2 passer rating, completing 67.6% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and only one interception, while averaging 7.45 yards per attempt. His average depth of target on play-action was 9.3 yards, which is exactly two yards more than when Wilson was throwing without play-action. That fits right into Smith's philosophy of running first then testing defenses down the field with play-action.

FINAL THOUGHTS

In my humble opinion, the Steelers can be a productive offense in 2024. They have the personnel to score points. I believe the running game would be most productive running more gap/man concepts than zone. Defenses are better equipped to defend wide zone attacks nowadays, and Harris and Warren both showed they were most productive running in more gap/man usage. This offense will go as far as the running game takes them.

As far as Wilson goes, his ability in play-action and throwing the deep ball have me more than confident that he can be a good quarterback for Pittsburgh (notice I am not saying great or elite, but good). My biggest concern is his well documented tendency to avoid the middle of the field:

PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS

Freiermuth has to be a big part of this passing attack, and he's most effective in the middle of the field. Like I said before, something's gotta give.

I get it. Wilson isn't built to hang in the pocket and always play within the structure of the offense. He's made a potential Hall of Fame career out of making exceptional play after exceptional play outside the pocket. I'm just curious of how this is going to mesh in Pittsburgh. There's a quarterback that avoids the middle of the field like the plague playing in an offense in which the coordinator loves targeting the middle of the field.

But, as I laid out previously, this offense will tick as long as the Steelers can run the football. If they can do that, kinks can be worked out in the passing game. There's enough there to put together a winning formula. It'll be interesting to see what Smith cooks up for this group.