COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The Penguins' chances of making the postseason are slim at this point. With 75 points in the standings, they're seven points back of both the Flyers in the last wild card position with two games in hand, and the Capitals as the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division, albeit with the Atlantic Division's Red Wings and the Metropolitan's Islanders and Devils standing in the way. They're down to just nine games remaining in the regular-season schedule.
While the climb can at times seem insurmountable, they're really not that far out of it, especially given their games in hand.
Still, it's unlikely. As the season winds down and the Penguins appear set to miss the postseason by a small margin for a second consecutive season, one may look at all the games over the course of the season where the Penguins missed out on points by being unable to close out games -- squandered multi-goal leads, blown third-period leads, struggles in overtime, all that.
Saturday's 4-3 shootout loss to the Blue Jackets here at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio had those elements rolled into one, against one of the league's bottom-feeders at that. It's games like this one that add up and ultimately will play a major role in the Penguins' season ending early.
The Penguins allowed a shorthanded goal to Mathieu Olivier in the first period when Kris Letang misplayed the puck at the blue line and gave the Blue Jackets a two-on-one. It was the 11th shorthanded goal they've allowed all year, one shy of the league lead. But, they managed to recover. A Drew O'Connor one-timer from the right circle set up by Bryan Rust, and a Rust one-timer from the left circle set up by Sidney Crosby had the Penguins leading at the second intermission. A Rickard Rakell backhand shot from the slot 8:59 into the third period had the Penguins clinging to a two-goal lead with just over 11 minutes remaining in the game. They just had to hold on.
Kirill Marchenko responded nine seconds later with a wrist shot from he left circle as Letang was falling down in front of him, having gotten tangled trying to play the puck and break up Marchenko's scoring chance. Zach Werenski tied the game and ultimately forced overtime 2:39 later, blowing past rookie defenseman Jack St. Ivany off the rush and sneaking a shot between the blocker of Alex Nedeljkovic and the post.
"I think they got some momentum," Crosby said of what transpired. "We get the 3-1 lead and then they get the second one the next shift, and I thought they got a lot of momentum from that. We just had a hard time grabbing momentum after that."
Rust spoke of that first third-period goal after Rakell's, and said that it was a matter of not being "dialed in" after they scored. Then he was asked what exactly they need to do to dial in.
"Just pay attention to details," he said. "Those shifts after goals either way are big momentum shifts, and I think you just have to bear down and make sure things like that don't happen."
After a low-event extra frame in which the Penguins recorded one shot on goal and allowed two over the five minutes, the Penguins and Blue Jackets went to a shootout. Crosbynd Alexandre Texier had the only goals for their respective teams through the initial three rounds -- Rakell and Rust were stopped. Letang was stopped in the extra fourth round and Evgeni Malkin was stopped in the fifth. Damon Severson scored the shootout goal in the fifth round to secure the extra point in the standings.
The trend of late blown leads is nothing new. The Penguins have the fourth-worst points percentage in the league when leading after two periods at .741, having gone 20-5-2. The only teams worse at holding onto third-period leads are the Sharks, Blackhawks and Blue Jackets, who occupy three of the bottom four spots in the league's overall standings.
Going back to last season, this was the 16th time in the last two years that the Penguins have lost a game -- whether in regulation or overtime -- when leading at second intermission. For context, that equals the number of blown leads the Penguins had in Mike Sullivan's first seven seasons with the team combined, per historian Bob Grove.
"We've got to do a better job of staying aggressive but playing smart at the same time," Marcus Pettersson said of playing in the third period. "I think too many times this year when we gave up leads, we're kind of giving momentum away and just allowing them to play with the puck. They're going to get looks. This league's too good to just give the puck away and let teams come at you. So, stay aggressive, but stay smart is something we got to do a way better job of."
The Penguins had a chance to win the game had they gone 11 minutes without allowing two goals. Even if they couldn't do that, they had five minutes of three-on-three overtime to just score one goal against a terrible Blue Jackets team. Instead, they only got one shot off. Crosby was the brave soul who decided to take a shot, from 42 feet back in the slot 4:15 into overtime.
The Penguins' inability to score a goal in three-on-three overtime has been an issue all season. They've had 16 games hit overtime, and only scored goals in three of them -- Rust on Nov. 9 against the Kings, Pettersson on Jan. 27 against the Canadiens, and Erik Karlsson on Feb. 27 against the Canucks. The Penguins have lost eight games in the three-on-three portion of overtime, and had five reach a shootout. Of the five to end in a shootout, the Penguins have now gone 2-3.
Having 16 opportunities to score a three-on-three goal and doing it three times is ... bad. I asked Sullivan if the coaching staff has identified trends that have prevented the Penguins from closing out games in three-on-three overtime over the course of the season.
"Yeah, there are," Sullivan said.
I asked if he'd share what those are.
"No."
There are a couple of aspects where the numbers show where the Penguins fall short in the extra frame. When they actually lose in three-on-three, they haven't been getting great goaltending. Their collective save percentage in three-on-three is .704, the eighth-worst in the league. Their rate of attempted shots is the ninth-worst, and their rate of shots on goal is the eighth-worst.
I asked Crosby what he thinks the issues have been.
"I don't know," he said. "I mean, maybe we haven't been able to regroup. A lot of those times we've given up leads. So, maybe the team that's gotten back in the game has kind of rode that momentum into overtime. But we haven't done a good enough job in overtime, I think, the whole year. But obviously, it's a big point tonight."
His theory makes sense. If the Penguins are allowing late goals going into overtime, they're going in with momentum on the other team's side.
Strategically, or personnel-wise, there has to be something, though. The Penguins do practice three-on-three overtime over the course of the year, albeit not as often as the usual elements that dominate a practice like five-on-five, power play and the penalty-kill. I asked Crosby if he thinks the overtime struggles are something that could be addressed in a practice setting.
"It’s hard to get practice in right now," he observed. "But I think it’s just being aware. I mean, obviously, there's some chances on both sides in the overtime tonight, it goes to a shootout. So yeah, I mean, it's something that there's points to be had there."
Fun story. So, the Penguins do practice shootouts fairly often too. Usually it's quick -- a couple of guys who are typically shootout performers will take attempts as a transition between other drills. But on Friday, in the practice before the Penguins flew out to Columbus, they practiced a less-common, full-team shootout. Players divided into two teams, and Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jarry alternated in net every two or three shooters. Not a single player had scored on an attempt on nearly the entire team, then it came down to the last two shooters -- P.O Joseph for his team, and Jeff Carter for the other. Joseph scored on Nedeljkovic, Carter was stopped. The good news: The Penguins' goaltenders combined for a nearly perfect shootout against an entire team of skaters. The bad news: The Penguins' skaters were the ones not able to score.
The Penguins need to be better at holding onto leads. They need to be better at not allowing late goals. And if the game actually does get to overtime, they've got to be better at that too. None of this is new. These have been storylines all year, and the continued shortcomings are adding up. The points left on the table are likely going to keep them out of a playoff spot.
The Penguins managed to get some help around the league on Saturday, at least. The Capitals and Red Wings also lost in overtime, the Islanders and Flyers lost in regulation, and the Devils were off. Nearly everything went their way, but they weren't able to fully capitalize on those gifts.
There's no time to dwell. This was the first of a four-game road trip for the Penguins, with games against the Rangers, Devils and Capitals still to come. The trip could make or break the rest of the season. They've got to turn the page and look ahead to the next one.
"We need to win," Rust said. "Simple as that.
