Halicke: A deep dive into Smith's fit with the Steelers

After a not-so-lengthy interview process, Mike Tomlin opted to hire Arthur Smith, former head coach of the Falcons, to be his new offensive coordinator.

Smith checks a lot of boxes, but how exactly does his system mesh with what the Steelers already have on the roster? 

What we do know is, due to his two seasons as offensive coordinator of the Titans, Smith has the experience Tomlin desired. And, at 41 years old, he'll be the youngest offensive coordinator Tomlin's ever employed. But, as Art Rooney II laid out in his meeting this week with a handful of reporters, Smith will be expected to "work with this roster and be successful with it." 

In order to get a clearer look at how Smith can be successful in Pittsburgh, let's take a deep dive into Smith's coaching background, along with the positives and negatives of his system.

First, Smith's coaching resume:

• Head coach, Falcons (2021-23)
• Offensive coordinator, Titans (2019-20)
• Tight ends coach, Titans (2016-18)
• Assistant tight ends coach, Titans (2014-15)
• Assistant offensive line coach/Assistant tight ends coach, Titans (2013)
• Offensive quality control coach, Titans (2012)
• Defensive quality control coach, Titans (2011)
• Defensive intern/Administrative assistant, Ole Miss (2010)
• Defensive quality control coach, Commanders (2007-08)
• Graduate assistant, North Carolina (2006)

As you can see, Smith doesn't stem from the popular Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay trees. Those who were pining for the Steelers to interview and hire the 49ers' passing game coordinator, Klint Kubiak, will have to pour one out for him. However, before he was a head coach, Smith served as an assistant under several experienced head coaches, including Joe Gibbs, Jim Zorn, Mike Munchak, Ken Whisenhunt, Mike Mularkey and Mike Vrabel.

The bright spot of Smith's resume is undoubtedly his two-year stint as the Titans' offensive coordinator. Needless to say, it went very well, especially for Derrick Henry, who led the NFL in rushing in both seasons and won Offensive Player of the Year in 2020 with an astounding 2,027 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. With Smith running the offense, the Titans didn't just run the ball successfully, they also ranked 10th in scoring in 2019 and ranked fourth in scoring in 2020. They were able to put up points, as well.

In addition, Ryan Tannehill thrived under Smith after being a mediocre quarterback over his first six seasons, all with the Dolphins. In 2019, Tannehill stepped in when the Titans benched Marcus Mariota and went on to become the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year, completing 70.3% of his passes for 2,742 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions in 11 games, leading the NFL with 9.6 yards per attempt and a 117.5 passer rating. Tannehill followed that performance with another productive season in 2020, completing 65.5% of his passes for 3,819 yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also posted a very respectable 7.9 yards per attempt and had another passer rating eclipse the century mark (106.5).

Given the Steelers' current situation and roster construction, having a dominant rushing attack while helping a quarterback such as Tannehill post his two best seasons makes Smith a very interesting hire. However, his three years as head coach of the Falcons, his most recent work, can't be overlooked. Smith tried to bring a similar philosophy to Atlanta, but fell well short with three 7-10 seasons in a weak NFC South division. He couldn't repeat success with developing quarterbacks such as Mariota, third-round pick Desmond Ridder or free-agent signing Taylor Heinicke. Also, his handling of former first-round picks Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson was highly criticized.

However, Smith's work as an offensive coordinator certainly applies more in this situation. There's a big difference between being a head coach and being in charge of only one side of the ball. Obviously, how certain players are handled falls under Mike Tomlin. He's the one who decides who plays and who doesn't, and will also have a big say in how workloads are distributed. Smith is now relieved of a head coach's headaches and responsibilities. That's Tomlin's job, allowing Smith to return to what he's done best.

There's no question that Smith's tenure in Tennessee was a wild success. The Titans boasted one of the NFL's most efficient offenses during the 2019 and 2020 seasons:

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In regards to EPA (Expected Points Added), the Titans ranked fourth in EPA per play and dropback EPA, ranked second to only the Chiefs in overall success rate and dropback success rate, and ranked second to only the Ravens in rushing EPA and rushing success rate. That is one of the most efficient offenses in a multiyear stretch. Also, in case the analytics don't do it for you, remember that Smith's offense ranked 10th in scoring in 2019 and ranked fourth in scoring in 2020, averaging 30.7 points per game in the latter. After all, the offense's primary job is scoring. Smith's offenses did just that. That is why Smith became a commodity and was ultimately hired as a head coach during the 2021 hiring cycle.

But, how does Smith's system fit with the Steelers? 

Let's begin with the undoubted strength of Smith's previous work and the Steelers' offensive personnel, which just so happens to revolve around the running game.

The Steelers should benefit from Smith's run-heavy system. No, Smith won't be inheriting one true feature back like he had in Tennessee. The Steelers have, as Rooney put it this week, a "two-headed monster" with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. While neither have proved to play at a Henry-esque level, Harris and Warren both eclipsed 1,000 yards from scrimmage this past season. The Lions were the only other team to have two running backs accomplish that. The Steelers are set at running back with arguably the most potent 1-2 punch in the league.

One thing Smith brings to the table that should provide continuity with the existing players is usage of heavy personnel. The Steelers deployed a heavy helping of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) and 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) after Matt Canada was fired, and it played a big role in why the Steelers' running game took off during that time. The Steelers wound up as the league leader in EPA per play while using 13 personnel in 2023.

When Smith was offensive coordinator in Tennessee, the Titans used 12 personnel more than all but three teams in 2019 and lead the league in such usage in 2020. With 13 personnel, the Titans lead the league in usage in 2019 and ranked third in 2020. Multiple tight ends were a huge part of what the Titans did. That's no accident as they ranked third in rushing play percentage in both seasons under Smith.

In the running game, Smith's system predominantly uses a wide zone rushing attack, which is not all that different from outside zone. You could even classify them both as "perimeter zone," which I will the rest of the way. In 2019, Henry logged 289 carries in zone concepts to only 95 carries in gap/man concepts. In 2020, Henry logged 267 carries in zone concepts to 125 carries in gap/man concepts, which is a closer distribution, but still heavily favored zone.

Smith brought the tendency for perimeter zone concepts to his three seasons with the Falcons. Over those three years, 764 of the Falcons' 1,307 rushing attempts were perimeter zone, which is 58.5%. That's not even counting the 189 inside zone attempts, which goes to show how much Smith's system has relied on a zone rushing attack.

Why does all of this zone rushing talk matter? 

One big reason is Harris has predominantly been a better zone runner going all the way back to his days at Alabama. The Steelers had that in mind when Canada switched to predominantly perimeter zone concepts in 2022. And, Harris put up better numbers. In 2022, Harris averaged 4.09 yards per carry with a 48.9% success rate on zone concepts, compared to 3.24 yards per carry with a 39.8% success rate on gap/man concepts. And, prior to Canada's firing in 2023, Harris averaged 4.31 yards per carry with a 48% success rate on zone concepts, compared to 3.32 yards per carry with a 35.8% success rate on gap/man concepts.

I used this same clip in last week's installment of Chalk Talk, but it's worth re-using. This is Zorro, an outside zone concept, and it really epitomizes how well Harris can run in perimeter zone concepts. He knows how to read the second level of the defense to find the right attack point, and then finishes the run with the same physicality, anger and ferocity that Henry also possesses.

With Harris being a very similar style back as Henry, he could very much benefit playing under the same coordinator that fostered Henry's two most productive and efficient seasons. The Steelers invested a first-round pick in Harris. The organization obviously places high value on Warren, but Harris will continue to be the listed starter in this offense. And, while Warren is predominantly a better gap/man runner, he's improved as a zone runner over his two seasons with the Steelers.

All of this being said, there is a level of concern with all of this. The league has been exploited by the use of wide zone systems. Smith is a big part of that, as well as offensive gurus Shahanan and McVay. In turn, defenses across the league have pushed back so much that both Shanahan and McVay have recently relied much more on gap/man concepts in their systems. Just this past season, the Rams ran Duo (a gap/man concept) more than any other concept, and it bore fruit as Kyren Williams finished third in rushing.

Defenses are faster than they've ever been. That's not by accident. Not only are they better prepared to defend the pass, but they are better prepared to defend horizontal rushing attacks. Several teams have already begun using more gap/man concepts to attack defenses vertically as a way to push back and stay ahead in the cat-and-mouse game.

To that point, the Steelers' dominance in the running game down the stretch in 2023 coincided with a much higher usage of gap/man concepts. Of the 190 carries between Harris and Warren after Canada was fired, 102 were zone and 88 were gap/man. That's a much more even distribution than what they had before. And, both Harris and Warren feasted in the latter. Remember that Harris has predominantly been a better zone runner for several years. But, during this seven-game stretch, Harris averaged 4.64 yards per carry with a 58.6% success rate in gap/man concepts. He was a monster.

Why did the Steelers make the switch? Perhaps it better fit their personnel. The use of perimeter zone concepts requires superb athleticism on the offensive line, especially at the center position. Here's an example of a wide zone concept in Smith's system, and really watch the center (No. 67) make it all the way to the linebacker on the second level while running horizontally:

While Mason Cole came from zone rushing systems before signing with Pittsburgh, we have not seen this kind of athleticism on a consistent basis. If the Steelers were to switch back and commit to being a predominantly perimeter zone rushing team again, they would have to upgrade at center. The Titans had a great one in Ben Jones during Smith's tenure. There are always options in free agency, but it might be best to try and find young and athletic centers in the draft and let them grow in the Steelers' system. Perhaps Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnson?

We've spent a long time focusing on the rushing game, and for good reason. Smith's system matches the Steelers' current personnel in terms of being a run-first team. And, contrary to popular belief, having a successful running game matters in today's NFL. The Ravens, 49ers and Lions -- three of the final four teams in the playoffs -- all finished in the top five in rushing this season. However, what can Smith do for Kenny Pickett or any other quarterback in Pittsburgh? After all, Rooney was emphatic this week that quality quarterback play is a priority for the Steelers' new offensive coordinator.

One of the main reasons why the Titans were such a great offense in 2019-20 was because of the quarterback play Tannehill provided. It also helped that the Titans did a good job of keeping defenses off balance with a heavy usage of playing under center and utilizing play-action. In 2019, the Titans were under center more than all but three teams, and then were under center more than all but one team in 2020. Add on top of that that the Titans used play-action on 27.7% of their passes in 2019, a healthy percentage, then dramatically increased that to 35.9% in 2020, the highest clip in the league.

Tannehill didn't have to light the league on fire, but provide enough through the air to make defenses pay for when they oversold to thwart Henry and the rushing attack. As you read earlier, Tannehill was more than efficient. But, taking a closer look at Tannehill's game, it's easy to see how Smith helped foster his growth.

In 2019, 28% of Tannehill's targets were to crossing routes, slants, digs and posts. That doesn't seem like that high of a number, but compare that to 18% of his targets thrown to out routes and only 6% more to all other out-breaking routes. That means Smith wasn't afraid to use the middle of the field. The same can be said in 2020 as 32% of Tannehill's targets were thrown to in-breaking routes, compared to 25% of his targets were thrown to out-breaking routes.

Just take a look at all of that red in the middle of the field:

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Tannehill had a couple of quality targets in the passing game, including A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. However, the Steelers have more talent now. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens provide plenty of explosiveness and versatility at the receiver position, and Pat Freiermuth is a great target to use in the middle of the field. It would behoove the Steelers to add another quality player to the receiver room, especially one that can also help out in run blocking when the Steelers would line up in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), though Smith's offenses in Tennessee were near the bottom of the league in 11 personnel usage.

Of course, hiring Smith hinges on an awfully big risk with Pickett. Yes, Tannehill wasn't a great quarterback prior to his two stellar seasons in Tennessee, but he accomplished far more than Pickett has in two seasons. Pickett is very much a work in progress, with two glaring weaknesses that need fixed in order to truly grow as an NFL passer. Pickett's struggles with pocket presence are well documented, but Pickett's inconsistencies with in-breaking routes is alarming, as well.

Both Tomlin and Rooney have been publicly clear that Pickett must improve, and that there will be competition for him in training camp. The most likely scenario is bringing back Mason Rudolph. With the maturity and poise Rudolph displayed, he could provide quality quarterback play in a system that is under center more often than not and isn't afraid to use play-action. Should Rudolph sign elsewhere, perhaps the Steelers entertain the idea of reuniting Smith with Tannehill, who just so happens to be a free agent. Yes, he's older now. But, he has enough starting experience to push Pickett, and there's no denying his best years were under Smith.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There was a lot of doom and gloom from Steelers fans over this hire, which simply doesn't make any sense to me. The only thing that makes sense is those people were boom or bust on a young coach from the Shanahan or McVay trees. I even saw some people say that hiring Smith is a slight upgrade over Canada, which is just absurd.

Sure, I would have liked the Steelers to be patient and wait to interview the likes of Kubiak from the 49ers system. His days as the offensive coordinator of the Vikings really intrigued me, and could have aligned well with the Steelers' current personnel.

However, that doesn't mean this is a bad hire. This has a much better chance of succeeding than failing. Smith has some skins on the wall as an offensive coordinator. Yes, I have some concerns about how the rushing attack will be schemed, but those concerns can be put to bed with how Omar Khan and Andy Weidl transform this roster through free agency and the draft. As we've learned over the past two offseasons, this roster could look much different by the time players report to Saint Vincent College for training camp.

If the three years in Atlanta scare you, think about this: Throughout the history of this game, there have been plenty of examples of coaches who have followed this same road as Smith. Remember Dick LeBeau? How about Norv Turner? Or Todd Haley? All of those coaches were accomplished coordinators but couldn't replicate similar success as a head coach.

Maybe Smith is the next guy on that list.