The 2023 season was a step forward for the Pirates. They finally climbed out of the National League Central's basement, improved by 14 wins and are positioned for what should be the best season of the Ben Cherington-Derek Shelton era.
But with hightened expectations comes plenty of questions. This team is still far from a finished product, and while there are prospects and potential in the immediate future, there are still uncertainty.
So on the final day of 2023, let's take a look towards 2024 and the questions the Pirates will need to have answered before the new year is through.
10. What happens next with Ke'Bryan Hayes?
The past two years, the narrative around Ke'Bryan Hayes was that he was a future Gold Glove winner whose offensive metrics under-performed compared to his high exit velocities. He finally won his Gold Glove this season in addition to putting together an above-average offensive campaign in 2023, posting a .762 OPS and 105 OPS+.
Hayes got off to a slow start offensively last season, but heated up in June after he zeroed in on some movement and timing cues that helped him maximize that hard contact. In his 71 games played starting in June, he hit .307 with 13 home runs and an .862 OPS. Extrapolated over a full year, an offensive campaign like that would make him an All-Star.Of course, there is no guarantee he can keep that pace over 140+ starts.
We've seen the version of Hayes where he struggles offensively but is still an above-average player because of his defense. We've seen the version of him where he is an above average hitter and puts together a 4 WAR season. The Pirates have a lot invested in him and they need him to be an impact player. He was one in 2023, but it still feels like there is still untapped potential.
9. Is Jack Suwinski a building block?
There were times last year where Suwinski looked like an All-Star in the making. There were also some terrible slumps in between.
It's hard to be too upset with a player who hit 26 home runs, provided an adequate glove in center field and had a .793 OPS, but the streakiness was tough to weather through. How much of that was Suwinski just navigating his first full season in the majors, or is he just an inherintley streaky player?
Do the Pirates have their center fielder of the future? Is he a starting outfielder? Is he a platoon? The Pirates went into last year fully backing him, and I would expect that to be the case again in 2024. What will that faith yield?
8. Does Bryan Reynolds bounce back?
You'd be hard pressed to say that 24 home runs, a .263/.330/.460 slash line and a 113 OPS+ is a bad season. But considering that was Reynolds' output on the first year of the team's first $100 million contract, it leaves a bit to be desired.
If you look at Reynolds' peripherals, his expected stats were much better (.280 expected batting average and .490 expected slugging percentage). That's more in line with the on field production the Pirates are hoping for out of him, and while it's easy to just assume Reynolds' expected and actual stats will just even out in 2024, they haven't for two years now. He greatly outperformed his peripherals in 2022 and under-performed in 2023.
Reynolds did a lot of good things at the plate last year. He made solid contact, he didn't chase out of the zone too often, his strikeout and walk rates were fairly average and he posted the highest average exit velocity of his career (90.9 mph). The Pirates need him to be the big bat in their lineup. Will that approach yield better on field results in 2024?
7. Who takes over at second?
The Pirates have maintained that Oneil Cruz is still a shortstop, so write him into the starting spot there. Who will be his double play partner?
Liover Peguero took a big step forward last year on both sides of the ball, and it's starting to look like he would be better suited for second base than shortstop. Nick Gonzales is a recent first-round pick, but there are legitimate concerns if he can hit high spin pitches. Jared Triolo could potentially play himself into an everyday role, and second base is in his arsenal.
I can't see Peguero and Gonzales both being on the roster just for one of them to sit on the bench. They're good friends, but they could find themselves in a spring training battle for a job.
6. Are more extensions coming?
I reported in a recent Friday Insider that the Pirates plan on exploring extensions with their two All-Stars, Mitch Keller and David Bednar, next month. While that's far from a guarantee that a deal will get done, Keller has openly stated that he would like to stay here long term, and it's no secret that Bednar would love to keep playing for his hometown team.
Can they get something done? Well, it does sound like both sides are at least open to the idea, if not motivated, though I do see some hurdles.
For Bednar, he is entering just the first of his three arbitration seasons, and given the volatility of relievers and his injury history, there could be some hesitation on the Pirates' side since they aren't at risk of losing him yet. With that said, Bednar has proven to be one of the elite closers in the game, and the Pirates almost need an elite closer to save more than their share of close games if they are going to make the jump to being a contender.
For Keller, his monetary ask for a new deal last year was much higher than what the Pirates were thinking and talks stalled out right then. He has an additional year of arbitration that the Pirates can leverage in any negotations, so he can't expect to get his full market value now anyway.
There are plenty of extension candidates -- including players like Suwinski, Cruz and Henry Davis -- but I would focus on these two as the most likely to have significant discussions.
5. When do we see Paul Skenes?
It's hard to envision a scenario where Skenes is on the opening day roster. I understand why that may be annoying to some, but he only has 6 2/3 innings of professional ball under his belt and has never made a full start on a five-man rotation's amount of rest. He has plenty to still learn, and a chunk of that can happen in the minors.
Don't get me wrong, assuming he's healthy, Skenes will almost surely come up to the majors at some point this season. But when?
Could it be as simple as Skenes just needs to make 10 or so starts, show he can handle a major-league workload and then he's promoted? What happens if there is a hiccup or he struggles out of the gate? Do the Pirates dare push him forward to a higher level out of necessity or wait until he shows he can get hitters in the highest levels of the minors out?
The Pirates' rotation is thin, but Skenes is a potential midseason boost, but will that boost come in late May/early June, or perhaps sometime later like July or after the trade deadline? And speaking of that rotation...
4. Which starters step up?
Keller is a bona fide starter. Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales have had success in the majors and are looking to bounce back. After that, there are two big question marks in the Pirates' rotation.
Skenes will get one of those spots eventually, and Jared Jones is a top 100 prospect who should get the call midseason too. While Cherington is still looking to add to the group, right now, the last two jobs are likely split between some combination of Bailey Falter, Max Kranick, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras and Quinn Priester. Falter looked fine in his Pirates cameo last year and Kranick is finally healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, but the other three all had drops in velocity and disappointed for most of 2023. The Pirates simply cannot go 0-for-3 with that trio of young starters. Can any of them find that extra zip on their fastball and bounce back?
3. Does Oneil Cruz live up to the hype?
Cruz went into spring training last year saying his goal was a 30 home run, 30 stolen base season, if not 40-40. It's a lofty goal, but it seemed plausible. Few players in the league boast his raw tools, and after getting off to a slow start in the majors in 2022, he found his footing in the second-half of that season. There was plenty of reason to be excited for what was next.
That encore ended up being just nine games after he fractured his ankle on a collision at home. The reports on his recovery have been encouraging this winter, so will he be full strength come spring training?
Of the four Pirate shortstops who played at least 100 innings in the field last season, two are gone (Tucupita Marcano and Rodolfo Castro), Peguero is probably better suited at second base and Alika Williams is a backup at best unless his bat takes a huge step forward. There's a ton riding on Cruz, both offensively and defensively.
2. Can Henry Davis be a full-time catcher?
Cherington went into this offseason saying that Davis was going to work on being a catcher this winter. With Endy Rodríguez out for all of 2024, he should have the inside track for the everyday job. Can he handle that challenge?
Davis caught just two innings in the majors last year, but would have caught more had it not been for a late-season injury. As a result, we don't have a real answer of if Davis can handle a major-league staff and meet the defensive metrics the Pirates expect out of their backstops. I took a look at the little we do know in a recent Mound Visit, like that he did make strides with his receiving behind the scenes and he works well with pitchers. But did he improve enough with the glove, can he handle a drastic increase in innings caught and is he a real major-league catcher?
If there's any positive, it's that we should know by the end of the year if he is a big-league catcher or not.
1. Are these the right people for the job?
Shelton and Cherington have been building towards a shared vision these past four years, and with ownership giving them the benefit of the doubt through the earliest years of the rebuild, they are much closer to the team they want to be. But Shelton is now on what is effectively his second contract as both he and Cherington enter their fifth year at the helm.
If the Pirates don't show enough improvement this season, do their seats get hot?
It's year five and the roster churning of 2020-2022 should be behind them. Many of the players the Pirates have developed for years should be major players for them this year. The coaching staff is where they want it to be. It's fair to evaluate leadership now more on wins and losses rather than primarily culture and development.
If the team wins, then it's clear they had the right two people at the helm. If they lose, there could be some new faces in 2025.
