Halicke: Don't throw in the towel yet, but concern for Pickett is valid

There's a lot of talk regarding this Steelers team. More than anything, this team has been out-gained in all nine games thus far, yet they stand at 6-3 on the season. And, of course, the blubbering offense is a topic of conversation week after week, bringing all kinds of things into question.

Among those concerns is Kenny Pickett, whose progress has ... yet to really take off, despite being midway through his second NFL season.

Look, before everyone flips out about any criticism regarding Pickett, I'll remind everyone of the disclaimer that this offense is shackled by Matt Canada's offense. The concepts are boring and the playcalling is pedestrian and, at times, predictable. However, Canada does not deserve the whole part of the blame for what Pickett hasn't done with 22 NFL games under his belt.

One thing to remember is how NFL offenses are structured. There are concepts that are tailored to what Pickett likes to do. For example, Pickett loved running the shallow cross concept at Pitt. So, Canada calls that quite a bit in this offense. So, any time fans want to complain about the concepts that are frequently called, remember that above all else, playing to the quarterback's strengths is an important part of every offense. After all, the quarterback is the most important position on the field.

One concept that's getting really, really predictable to opposing defenses is the keeper/slide that Pickett apparently loves to run. Why? Well, it gets him moving and outside the pocket. He likes doing that. And, based on his inconsistency inside the pocket -- and his proneness to bail too quickly from the pocket -- it's in the offense as a potential layup for Pickett.

Here's one way the Steelers have run the keeper/slide, though it comes in a variety of formations:

NFL.COM

The concept here is get the quarterback immediately on the move with three options: 1) the flat 2) the over/crossing route 3) the deep option, which could be a go or comeback, depending on the coverage, but either way it's a deep option. There is also a fourth option as one of the tight ends on the play side stays in initially to block, then releases as a check down.

This play worked in preseason, as Pickett surveyed the defense and threw a strike to Diontae Johnson, his second option:

The problem is it's not preseason anymore. And, teams are well aware of the Steelers' proneness to running this concept. It's a go-to for Pickett, only now it's not surprising anyone anymore. 

One time in the Steelers' 23-19 win over the Packers, Pickett forced a dangerous throw to Johnson, threw it a tad behind him, and nearly had it intercepted:

Another time, I just don't know what Pickett sees here:

It sure looks to me as if George Pickens has enough separation from the cornerback chasing him and enough space for Pickett to drop a pass over the top of the underneath defender -- one of three that initially defended the flat -- that breaks off covering Najee Harris in the flat. He even has Darnell Washington as the fourth option check down. Instead, this turns into nothing, and takes a hit in the process.

I don't know if Pickett just doesn't trust his ability for higher-quality throws right now or not. But, another trend might help explain that, and also why any concern regarding Pickett is valid:

NFL NEXT GEN STATS

The middle of the field is a barren wasteland. I mean, not one attempt to the middle of the field. The only one that could have been close to the middle of the field from Sunday's win was a game-clinching completion to Pickens on third down late in the game, but an offensive pass interference call on Calvin Austin III negated it.

Now, a lot of Steelers fans will look at that graphic above and immediately blame Canada. And, to reiterate, he does share blame in this. However, Pickett shoulders more blame than most people think, and I've got two examples from Sunday that illustrates why:

The Packers ran a lot of middle field closed (Cover 1, Cover 3) on Sunday, and there was a play to be made against it here. With one safety over the top and the cornerback playing far off the ball, Miles Boykin is taken away on the deep corner. That option should have been crossed off by Pickett before the snap. Pickett stays with Connor Heyward on the out route for far too long. Pretty much, this play lives and dies by Pickett trusting Heyward to get open. That can't happen. What's awful about it is if Pickett bails on Heyward quicker, he could have seen Johnson streaking over the middle on the dig.

Here's another dig missed by Pickett:

The Packers are in Cover 3 zone here, and I don't know if Pickett was fooled by the linebacker shadowing Heyward prior to the pass or not. Either way, Pickens is open, regardless of what the linebacker does. Despite locking onto Pickens, Pickett just doesn't pull the trigger. He's quick to bail from the pocket and runs into a sack.

One final example, which really epitomizes a consistent issue for Pickett:

I mean, Pickett is locked onto Jaylen Warren so much here, the rest of the defense didn't have to do anything. And that sucks because Johnson beat the pants off his defender at the release and was streaking wide open to the end zone for a potential touchdown.

A lot of us, myself included, are very hard on Canada for being too predictable with his playcalling and how he telegraphs his plays. However, when Pickett consistently deadlocks onto his first read, and when he refuses to take any chances over the middle of the field, it makes the offense very, very predictable, as well. And the thing is, the two digs that Pickett either didn't see or didn't pull the trigger on aren't high-risk throws. The windows were open, especially for Pickens since it was zone coverage. 

When you couple these issues along with consistently bailing from the pocket prematurely and a tentative, anxious presence in the pocket, it's a recipe for dull, uninspired, boring quarterback play. This ... just ain't it. Especially not for a first-round pick.

Now, when the team rushes for 205 yards in a game and wins the time of possession battle, there's a much better chance of winning. And, to his credit, Pickett hasn't been turning the ball over. He's thrown 147 straight passes now without an interception, the longest active streak in the NFL. But, outside of being very good in the fourth quarter (101.5 passer rating), Pickett isn't doing much to put the Steelers over the top.

When it comes to his fourth quarter performance, yes, it's a big reason why the Steelers are fortunate enough to be 6-3. But, the defense is also a big part of that, too. Not only has the defense recorded game-sealing interceptions in the previous two weeks, the Steelers are out-scoring their opponents, 38-3, in the fourth quarter over the past five games. The three points might be more impressive than the 38.

The point of this isn't to bail on Pickett and claim "first-round bust" or anything close to it. Quarterbacks develop at different rates. Josh Allen didn't take off until his third season. And when he did, he turned into a runner up for MVP. Pickett absolutely has the tools to turn into a franchise quarterback. The issue is that the growth we witnessed at the end of last season has plateaued this season. And, despite playing in 22 games now, we still have yet to see Pickett put together a full four-quarter performance.

No, do not give up on Pickett. But, is there reason to be concerned about a lack of growth this season? Is there reason to be concerned about seeing the same issues week after week after week? Absolutely.