As the Pirates prepare for a pivotal 2024 campaign, it's clear that the area of the team that needs addressed the most this winter is the rotation. Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo kept the ship above water for the closing months of the season, but two pitchers does not make a rotation. There are some young guys in the mix too -- like Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester and Roasny Contreras -- but on the whole, the Pirates relied on openers and bullpen games too much down the stretch, and they need to add both quality and quantity to their rotation.
"We want to be really open-mind to how we can improve our starting pitching group between now and spring training," Ben Cherington said earlier this month. "You want to walk into spring training feeling like you have 10 [starters]. I don’t think I can tell you right now we have 10. I also think it’s within our reach between now and February to get to the point where we can say we have 10. Whether that’s external additions. Whether that’s continued growth from guys who are already here or just return to health. I think if we do our jobs well enough, we can get to that point in February to feel like we can say we have 10. We’re not there right now."
"We need to get deeper into our planning to figure out exactly the targets that make sense for us," Cherington continued. "It’s a different point in time, though. I think that means we can be open to maybe a different type of target. We’ll just have to see. Again, don’t want to lean on free agency exclusively as the answer to all of the things we want to do. I think we need to cast a wide net."
May I offer some suggestions?
I kept this list focused on players who are shorter-term commitments, like we've seen Cherington focus on in the past. So no Shohei Ohtani, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell or the top free agents. I also extended the search to free agents and trade targets, since the former is noticably thin this winter.
This isn't to say the Pirates have been connected to these pitchers (free agency doesn't open until after the World Series concludes), but it's a mix of pitchers I believe would be a good fit that is a realistic addition.
FREE AGENT TARGETS
RHP JACK FLAHERTY
A few years ago, Flaherty looked like a potential Cy Young in the making, but injuries hampered him in 2021 and 2022. He was healthy again in 2023, making 27 starts and pitching 144 2/3 innings, but finished with a 4.99 ERA. That includes a disappointing run with the Orioles after being acquired at the trade deadline, where he posted a 6.75 ERA and was demoted to the bullpen. At 28, he would be best served taking a one- or two-year pillow contract to rebuild value.
As rough as this past year was, his peripherals with his four-seamer were better than the actual results. In fact, a .335 expected wOBA and 20.8% whiff rate with the fastball were basically league average. Mix that with a really good curveball (.204 batting average against, 40.2% whiff rate) and there's a pathway to making Flaherty a solid starter again.
His best path for that is probably leaning on his breaking balls, and the slider is a big part of this equation. It was his best pitch for most of his career, but hitters had a .339 average against it in 2023. It had the same movement profile as before, but he wasn't able to get it to fall out of the zone. There doesn't appear to be an easy fix for getting this pitch back on track, but if he gets his slider again, Flaherty could theoretically regain All-Star form.
Flaherty doesn't seem too far removed from his best self (he had a 3.45 ERA over his last dozen starts with the Cardinals before moving to Baltimore), even if he hasn't been quite the same pitcher as he was in 2018 and 2019. I would predict that he is one of the most popular reclamation targets this winter, but if he is willing to lean into a breaking ball-centric approach, Oscar Marin would certainly be a fine pitching coach to bet on, especially since the Pirates haven't shied away from letting their other starters do that.
RHP KYLE GIBSON
This isn't the most exciting pick of the bunch, but Gibson is a high-floor guy who could serve well as a middle of the rotation or backend starter.
The Pirates were linked to him last offseason, and from what I heard, the team made a good impression while wooing him. He ultimately opted for the Orioles, who were closer to contention, where he posted a 4.73 ERA and 4.13 FIP over 192 innings for the eventual AL East Champions while doubling as one of their team leaders.
Gibson is an inning-eater, pitching at least 160 frames each of the last five seasons, with the exception of the abbreviated 2020 campaign. While the Pirates have several young pitchers with upside, Mitch Keller and Rich Hill were the only two starters who consistently went at least five frames just about every start. Some of that was by design late in the year with the abundance of openers, but the team can't put that much stress on their bullpen over the course of a full season. Gibson is one of those guys you can chalk up at least five innings for every game and give the middle relief a breather.
Plus, I believe Gibson could lower that ERA in 2024. I wouldn't say he's due for a breakout season at age 36, but he started throwing his sweeper consistently this year and it was nasty (.147 batting average against, .228 slugging percentage against). The Pirates aren't afraid to have their starters go with breaking ball-heavy approaches, so it would be interesting to see what happens if he upped its usage from the 18.5% mark he had this year. He won't blow hitters away with his fastball, but if he leans into becoming a junkballer, he's got a couple years left in this league.
TRADE TARGETS
LHP JOSE QUINTANA
There's an assumption baked in here that the Mets are looking to sell off some veteran players this winter. Max Scherzer let it slip in August that the Mets viewed 2024 as a transitory year, but that organization has been flipped on its head since then, with a new team president in place and a new general manager and field manager to follow. Could the Mets instead shoot for the stars again next year?
But if they are looking towards 2025 instead, Quintana would be a great trade chip. A rib injury sidelined him until July, but he quickly regained his footing, posting a 3.57 ERA, 3.52 FIP and above average run values with his fastball, breaking stuff and offspeed stuff. He'll be turning 35 this winter, but he's still got stuff left in the tank. His batted ball peripherals did get worse and his strikeout rate dipped below 20% for the first time in his career, but that could be a product of him being sidelined half the season.
The appeal of Quintana is obvious. He fits in very well to the middle of the rotation and is a clubhouse leader. Roansy Contreras in particular really looked up to him in 2022, trying to mirror his routine. He is one of those guys who will consistently give his team at least five innings and has the ability to post zeros and go deeper into games.
There are just two red flags. The first is the cost. The Pirates were interested in bringing Quintana back last winter, but it became clear quickly that he was going to get more lucrative offers elsewhere and they bowed out. He's under contract for $13 million in 2024, which is certainly high by the Pirates' standards, but the same amount Rich Hill and Austin Hedges signed for last winter. Are the Pirates willing to put that many eggs in one basket? The second concern is that Quintana doesn't come free in terms of acquisition cost. If the Mets are selling, they're going to want good prospects back. I doubt it would cost a top-tier minor-leaguer, but Cherington has not traded a top 30 prospect in his time with the Pirates. Of course the focus these last few years has been about acquiring as much young talent as possible rather than trade it away, but it's a bridge he's going to have to eventually cross for the Pirates to elevate themselves to contenders.
RHP SPENCER TURNBULL
If Quintana costs too much in terms of prospects or dollars, Turnbull is an alternative, even if his ceiling is probably a backend starter. Turnbull did not quite reach five years of service time this past season because of a late option to the minors, meaning he has two years of team control remaining before free agency. It's hard to imagine him getting much of a raise off of his $2.15 million 2023 salary after an injury-plagued season where he recorded a 7.26 ERA over seven major-league starts. That down year comes after missing a good portion of 2021 and all of 2022 because of a Tommy John surgery.
While his 2020 and 2021 seasons amounted to just 20 starts and 106 2/3 innings, there was a lot to like in those outings. Hitters had a .197 batting average against his four-seamer in that stretch and a .183 average against his slider, while also getting a 40.5% whiff rate on swings against the slider. I'm looking at those two pitches. The fastball was down a tick in terms of velocity and the slider about a mile and a half compared to 2021, but he still does good job killing horizontal spin with the fastball and averaged 40 inches of vertical movement on the slider last year. The pitches aren't flat and they both get good spin. Turnbull couldn't shake injuries last year -- and his rehab assignment late in the year didn't inspire much confidence -- but even at his worse, he still had stuff.
Turnbull is a non-tender candidate, so I would have to imagine the acquisition cost would be a fringe prospect at most. I wouldn't base my offseason pitching haul around Turnbull, but there is some upside and he is a fine option as the second or third starter acquired. I would also guess that his pitch profile could play well out of the bullpen if he doesn't pan out as a starter or if he gets bumped by a prospect midseason.
