Giger: Some hard truths about Franklin, Allar, Penn State's ceiling

ALTOONA, Pa. -- James Franklin is a good college coach, but he still cannot be trusted in big games.

This version of Drew Allar is not what we thought Penn State would be getting. This version is little more than a game manager who lacks game-changing ability and who, at this stage, seems vastly overrated.

Lastly, Penn State doesn't look like it will be winning a national title any time soon.

Those aren't hot takes. I hate hot takes, because they're usually short-sighted and disingenuous.

Those three things are, at this point, simply common sense conclusions. And if there are any Nittany Lion fans who disagree, you need to stop drinking the Kool-Aid and be honest with yourself.

Let's dive into all three aspects in the wake of Saturday's 20-12 loss at Ohio State, in which Penn State really embarrassed itself on a national stage with one of the worst offensive performances in program history.

1. Franklin's failure in big games is the program's No. 1 issue.

Penn State has good enough players. Not many teams that go up against the likes of Ohio State or Michigan can say that, because the talent gap is almost always substantial.

That wasn't the case this time around against the Buckeyes. A strong case can be made that Penn State has as good or better of an all-around roster this year, and yet one guy (Buckeyes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.) really kind of decided the outcome.

This game proved once again that Franklin and his staff are still not good enough on game day to get the job done against this level of competition. He's now 1-9 against Ohio State, 3-6 against Michigan and 3-16 overall against top 10 teams during his 10 seasons at Penn State.

The narrative has exploded once again since Saturday about how Franklin is good enough to win a lot of games and run a very, very good program, but not quite good enough to win the biggest games and get over the hump from great to elite.

I asked the coach about that Tuesday, wondering if there's anything he'd like to personally say about that narrative.

"I think it's more than fair to judge me and my staff for all of it, right," he said. "I mean, that's what it's about -- the good, the bad, the consistency, the lack of success in that game, all of it. That's totally fair to be judged by all of those things.

"I also think it's important to judge the entire body of work, all of it, which I don't need to get into right now because I don't want it to come off the wrong way. Yeah, I think it's totally fair to be judged based on all those things, the whole body of work, the good and the bad."

Later, Franklin was asked about how he internalizes losing big games with also needing fan support when it comes to the vast financial necessities of modern college football.

"Ultimately, it's always on me when things don't go well," Franklin said.

If the team doesn't win the big game, he added, "It is ultimately on me and my responsibility.  There's no doubt about that. There's no gray area about that whatsoever.

"Is it nuanced, and is there a lot of things that go into that that ultimately no one really cares about at that time? Yes. There's no doubt about it. At the end of the day, the most important thing is for me to take responsibility and do everything within my power to get it fixed."

I've been writing and talking for several years about whether Penn State going 10-2 but losing to Ohio State and Michigan is good enough for the fan base. Probably 95 percent of the programs in the country would be thrilled to frequently go 10-2, and being able to do that certainly puts Penn State and Franklin in one of the sport's top tiers.

But the elite tier continues to remain elusive.

It's a weird position to be in, no doubt. Penn State has so many things to be proud of as a football program, and so does Franklin, who has achieved a lot of success. But the byproduct of all that success is this neverending question: When will the program and coach take the next step to become one of the elites?

What if it never happens? Will that be good enough for fans?

What if this program's ceiling is 10-2, and that's just all there is to it?

A lot of people are asking that question this week about the ceiling, including this excellent article from The Athletic, and this one and this one.

I have always avoided using the word "fluke" to describe Penn State's stunning victory over Ohio State in 2016. The Lions made a great play with the blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown, and they deserve credit for that.

But even if I don't want to call it a fluke, the bottom line is that Frankling got very, very, very lucky in that game. Without that play, he'd be 0-10 against Ohio State, he would not have won the Big Ten title in 2016, there would have been no Rose Bowl appearance or incredible TD run by Saquon Barkley against USC.

The pinnacle of Franklin's entire career -- and the pinnacle of Penn State football over the past 18 years -- all came down to one gigantic stroke of luck. A miracle play, if you will.

You don't become elite by counting on miracles. The fact that Franklin hasn't beaten Ohio State since that crazy game is no fluke, either.

2. This version of Drew Allar is not what anybody expected.

He's supposed to be a superstar, a potential top five or even No. 1 overall NFL draft pick.

Everybody waited two years to see what he could do, and at this point, the answer to that has been extremely disappointing.

The one thing Allar does well is protect the ball. He hasn't thrown an interception in 223 pass attempts, which is remarkable.

But that stat is also very misleading, because the offense doesn't ask Allar to try to do very much or to even attempt throws that could be considered dangerous. Whether by design or his own decision making, Allar throws safe passes to parts of the field that won't provide big gains or risk turnoverrs.

That's the epitome of a game manager. And if all Penn State wants him to be is a game manager, then you can forget about Allar ever coming close to living up to the enormous expectations.

Now look, the wide receivers aren't very good. I've written literally 10,000 words on that this year, and that's a very big problem on this team. If those guys cannot get separation, then what is a quarterback to do?

So, Allar gets a pass in that regard. But only in that regard.

If you watch plays unfold, you can see he's not always solid in the pocket, his footwork is a mess at times and his accuracy is not good at all when he needs to make a throw into a tight window. Franklin was asked Tuesday about why so many of Allar's throws are to the sides, instead of to the middle of the field where it could lead to more big plays.

The specific question mentioned this highly unimpressive but informative stat: "11 percent of his targeted passes have gone between the numbers, over 10 yards."

"We've got to be able to attack the entire 53 1/3 width of the field and the entire 110 yards of the field," Franklin said. "We've got to be able to attack the entire field. If most of our production is coming in similar areas of the field, then it makes you easier to defend. There's no doubt about it.

"Whether it's throwing the ball on the perimeter from one sideline to the other, making the defense run from sideline to sideline and creating space that way, whether it's play-action pass and taking shots over the top of the defense, that's important for us to do. Whether it's getting the ball more into your playmakers' hands is part of it, as well, whether that's the tight ends, the running backs, receivers, whatever it may be."

Allar doesn't take shots down the field. We all know that. But he's also not taking many shots at all in areas of the field where you can expect big gains. And that's a gigantic problem, because again, it suggests that he's been reduced to being a game manager who's primary task it not to lose the game on offense.

Yeah, you can beat Illinois and Northwestern and Iowa that way. And you can beat a whole lot of teams with the sensational defense Penn State has.

But right now, playing this style, Penn State cannot expect to win a big game with Allar being a game manager. He's got to make winning plays, and a lot of them, rather than starting a big game 10 for 30 and having the offense go 0 for 15 on third down.

Allar has gone four consecutive games without throwing for 200 yards. That's almost impossible to believe, given his talent and recruiting hype, but that's where we are with this offense.

Ultimately, a big problem with Allar in this system is that he's not a running threat. At all.

Penn State runs an RPO offense, and the defense needs to be at least somewhat concerned about the quarterback taking off and running for that system to be effective. Defenses have no reason to be concerned about Allar running, so the entire premise of the RPO is basically going through wasted motions that won't amount to anything or any level of deception.

Here's an excellent discussion on that topic from the guys at Hardcore Penn State Football.

Everybody got excited about Allar coming to Penn State because he's got a cannon arm and can make all the throws. But he hasn't shown any ability so far to be able to make those throws in games.

He's not getting much help from his receivers, clearly. And the offensive line has been a disappointment. Even left tackle Olu Fashanu allowed a sack and five hurries against Ohio State, playing by far the worst game of his career.

So yeah, there's lot of blame to go around.

But Allar is the guy who's supposed to be a star. He's the franchise. He's the biggest reason for the national title hopes this year and next, before he heads to the NFL.

Based on what we've seen so far, all that NFL talk seems silly, because this version of Allar really isn't even a particularly good college quarterback.

3. The national title hopes seem far fetched.

Penn State was supposed to have this two-year window to compete for and perhaps win a national title, which would be the program's first since 1986.

But when you consider a handful of things, it's clear that the national title talk doesn't seem realistic.

First of all, there's all that stuff above about Allar. The Lions aren't winning a title with him playing like this.

But let's say Allar turns it on and lights it up next year. Well, he may not have the sensational defense that he can rely upon this year.

I fully expect Manny Diaz to be gone next year. That guy deserves a head coaching job as much as any assistant coach in the country.

If Diaz departs, you can forget about finding somebody else who will equal what he's done. Sure, Penn State will hire a good coach, but not this good.

Kalen King will be gone next year, along with Chop Robinson. That's two potential first-round picks. Other key guys will be gone, including Curtis Jacobs and Johnny Dixon. The defense could suffer a gigantic dropoff next season.

Fashanu will be gone, as well as several other key members of the offensive line -- Hunter Nourzad and Caedan Wallace. We're gonna be right back to where we've always been with regards to worrying about the O-line next year.

There's no telling if the poor wide receiver situation will be any better.

Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will back, and the offense should be pretty good, again as long as Allar develops they way everyone hopes.

The bottom line is that, of this two-year window with Allar, this year probably offered the best chance for the Lions to truly become an elite team that could compete for a national title.

The College Football Playoff will expand to 12 teams next year. Penn State should make the field, as like a 9-12 seed. The team might be able to win one game, but expecting anything more than that seems unrealistic.

Going forward, Penn State should be able to make the playoff most years, because again, the Lions can count on going 10-2 most years. But to be able to win it all would require the right quarterback, the right offensive and defensive coordinators and a whole bunch of stars on both sides of the ball.

Just like the Lions thought they had this year. And yet, we're once again talking about a massively disappointing loss in the biggest game of the year.