If Kyle Dubas and the Penguins are going to make an Erik Karlsson deal happen with San Jose, they're going to have to clear some serious cap space.
The 33-year-old defenseman has four years left on his contract that carries an $11.5 million cap hit.
Obviously, the Penguins can't take all of that on. PuckPedia's math currently has the Penguins $716,842 over the cap right now, though that's based on their own projected roster, not anything official. That also includes both Casey DeSmith and Alex Nedeljkovic backing up Tristan Jarry, and so a move like trading or waiving DeSmith alone would get the Penguins cap-compliant by those projections.
Still, there's no wiggle room, certainly not enough to take on $11.5 million. The Sharks could retain a maximum of 50%, or $5.75 million. A third-party team could play the middle man and retain 50% on that $5.75 million, which could take Karlsson's cap hit down to $2.875 million.
Paying one or more teams to retain salary on Karlsson would be costly from an assets standpoint, given the four years left on his deal. Even if the Penguins can make the best case scenario happen and get the Sharks and another team to retain salary, they still have to move money out to make it happen.
There are two high-salaried players who look to be easy candidates. There's Mikael Granlund, who has two years left on his contract that carries a $5 million cap hit. If the Penguins can't find a taker for a trade for Granlund, there's still another option. Once Drew O'Connor either signs his contract before arbitration, or goes through arbitration, a second buyout window opens up. The second window would last for 48 hours, beginning three days after O'Connor's settlement or award. A buyout of Granlund would free up $4,166,667 in cap space next season alone.
The other candidate that could make sense to be moved is Jeff Petry, especially given that both he and Karlsson are right-handed defensemen. With two years left on a deal that carries a $6.25 million cap hit, Petry is the Penguins' highest-paid defenseman and second-highest paid player overall, behind only Sidney Crosby.
Moving Petry out would free up a spot in the lineup and some of the cap space needed to take on Karlsson. A trade involving Petry would certainly have its challenges, but there are some options out there.
Petry has a 15-team no-trade list clause in his contract. He can eliminate nearly half of the league as potential trade partners for the Penguins.
There's no knowing now which teams are on that list for Petry, but it's reasonable to expect that San Jose would be on that list. Petry is from Ann Arbor, Mich., and still goes back home in the summers. Part of the reason Pittsburgh was on his list of approved teams when he was traded from Montreal was because of its proximity to his family and his home. It made it easy for his extended family to see his wife Julie and their four young sons. If proximity to Michigan is important, then San Jose probably has a good chance of being on Petry's list of teams to which he would not accept a trade.
Petry, at 35 years old and with only two years left on his current contract, probably wouldn't be OK with going to one of the league's bottom-dwellers either. San Jose is cleaning house and going full rebuild, and Petry likely wouldn't be around in San Jose long enough to see that through to the Sharks becoming contenders again. If he wants to win, San Jose isn't going to be on his approved list.
If Petry is to be moved, it would likely have to come in a separate deal entirely from the Karlsson trade, or as part of a three-team deal that has him going to that third team, rather than the Sharks.
Which teams might fit that bill? Without knowing for sure which 15 teams are on Petry's no-trade list, we can at least come up with a handful of teams that seem pretty likely to be on his approved list of teams, given what we know about Petry. An ideal team would be relatively close to Petry's family, and either be a playoff team now or a team on the cusp on making it to the postseason. Of course, they'd also need to have cap space to accommodate Petry's $6.25 million cap hit.
With all that in mind, here are some teams that would likely be able (and even willing) to take on Petry in a trade if the Penguins are to make a Karlsson deal happen.
RED WINGS
The Red Wings make a lot of sense. Too much sense, maybe.
Of course, Detroit is as close as you can get to home for Petry. And with the Red Wings missing the playoffs by just six points last season, they aren't too far off from being a playoff team again. With over $7 million in projected cap space, they could afford to take on Petry's entire contract as well.
Before the Canadiens traded Petry to the Penguins last summer, there were reports from TSN that the Red Wings were one of the teams that reached out to the Canadiens to inquire about Petry.
One issue is that the Red Wings currently have seven NHL-caliber defensemen under contract for next season -- the right-handed Moritz Seider, Justin Holl and Gustav Lindstrom, and left-handed Ben Chiarot, Shayne Gostisbehere, Jake Walman, and Olli Maatta. An additional move might be needed on Detroit's end to make that happen.
BLACKHAWKS
The Blackhawks aren't going to be a playoff team just yet, but with Connor Bedard now in the mix they could be on the cusp in the near future.
The Blackhawks have four defensemen who were full-time NHL players last season under contract in the right-handed Seth Jones, Nikita Zaitsev, and Connor Murphy, and the left-handed Jarred Tinordi. There are another three young left-handed defensemen who saw limited NHL time last season and could conceivably push for NHL time this coming season in Wyatt Kaiser, Filip Roos, and Isaak Phillips.
The Blackhawks are one of the league's younger teams, and have a number of young defensemen who could potentially come up through the system over the next two years. It could be a plus to bring an older, experienced defenseman like Petry in to take on more of a mentor role.
Projecting the Blackhawks' available cap space is tricky given the question marks surrounding which depth players make the roster, but there are scenarios where the Blackhawks could afford to take on Petry's full cap hit if needed.
SABRES
The Sabres' rebuild is over. After narrowly missing the playoffs by just one win last season, they're going to be looking to make a run this year.
The Sabres are one of the youngest teams in the league, with only the Blue Jackets being slightly younger. A lot of that youth is in Buffalo's blue line in 23-year-old Rasmus Dahlin and 20-year-old Owen Power, both of whom are left handed. Seven more defenseman round out the roster -- left-handed Mattias Samuelsson, Jacob Bryson and Riley Stillman and right-handed Connor Clifton, Erik Johnson, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Henri Jokiharju.
With nine defensemen, the blue line is already crowded in Buffalo. But aside from the top talent, the rest of the depth isn't particularly strong. Petry could be an upgrade over several of the current options.
The Sabres currently have anywhere from $5-6 million in projected cap space and likely would want to keep a little wiggle room, so they might not be able to take on the entirety of Petry's contract off the Penguins' hands if needed.
PREDATORS
The Predators are another team that just narrowly missed the playoffs last year and are still looking to be a contender.
Nashville already has seven defensemen under contract -- left-handed Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh and Jeremy Lauzon, and right-handed Tyson Barrie, Luke Schenn, Alexandre Carrier, and Dante Fabbro.
The Predators have nearly $8 million in projected cap space, and so would look to be a good candidate as a middle-man to either take on salary or a player like Petry, if they can find a spot in the lineup.
Plus, Nashville kind of owes the Penguins for the Granlund trade. Right?
BLUE JACKETS
The Blue Jackets were one of the league's worst teams last season, so that might automatically get them onto Petry's no-trade list. But the Blue Jackets are at the tail end of their rebuild, and so could still be a long-term fit for Petry if he wants to be on a team on the upswing.
If Petry wants to stay close to home, Columbus is as close as it's going to get after Detroit, too.
The Blue Jackets have six defensemen under contract -- left-handed Ivan Provorov, and right-handed Damon Severson, Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke, Nick Blankenburg and Adam Boqvist. Left-handed Tim Berni is a restricted free agent. With such a glut of right-handed defenseman, acquiring someone like Petry might not be a priority. But, he could still serve as a valuable mentor figure on the league's youngest team.
ANY OTHERS?
There are teams with ample cap space that seem likely to be on Petry's no-trade list. The Ducks could surely take on some highly-paid players as they struggle to reach the cap floor, but they would likely be on Petry's no-trade list for the same reasons that the Sharks would likely be on there. The Coyotes have around $9 million in cap space and a weak blue line with Sean Durzi being the No. 1 defenseman. But with the uncertainty surrounding the Coyotes' future, it doesn't seem like the type of team Petry would want to uproot his family for.
Reality is that moving Petry could prove to be pretty difficult. There just isn't a team out there that is sure to not be on Petry's no-trade list, has over $6 million in cap space, and a spot wide-open on the right side for him. If trading Petry is a necessary step toward a Karlsson trade, it might take something pretty creative to make happen.
