In an unexpected fashion, Jaylen Warren rose from an undrafted rookie to becoming the backup running back to former first-round pick Najee Harris in the 2022 season.
Warren toted the ball 77 times for 379 yards and a touchdown while adding 28 receptions (on 33 targets) for 214 yards. In a role where he wasn't the dominant ball carrier and hadn't earned a start, Warren still finished 11th in carries and 10th in rushing yards among rookie backs in 2022.
The coaching staff clearly likes something about him, as evidenced by the increase in workload given towards the end of the season. He rushed a career-high 12 times for 76 yards in the Steelers' penultimate game of the season against the Ravens, and his 11 carries two weeks prior against the Panthers gave him two games of double-digit carries out of the four to close the regular season. His previous high in carries in a game had been nine in Week 10, right after the Steelers' bye.
"I don't want to get into that 'been-here-done-that," Warren said during OTAs. "Always try to learn something new every day ... Just looking for new things, trying new routes, not being self-conscious about going throughout your day. Being locked into whatever, being where your feet is."
With Warren trending upward and the Steelers having a clear intent on running the ball under Matt Canada, what could Warren's 2023 look like?
Warren is projected to see an uptick in carries, yards, and touchdowns this season, according to data from ESPN. The model predicts Warren to have 113 carries for 497 yards and three touchdowns. That would equate to about 28.8% of the projected carries and 30.5% of the projected yards from Steelers running backs in 2023. For context, Harris' projections of 242 carries for 964 yards and six touchdowns would equate to 61.6% of the carries and 59.5% of the yards.
These projections would suggest a clear added involvement from Warren, and more than he had contributed as a rookie.
Warren accounted for 77 out of the 375 carries for Steelers running backs last season, or 20.5%, while Harris' 272 carries accounted for 72.5% of carries for Steelers running backs. Warren's yardage total accounted for 24.7% of the Steelers' running backs' rushing yards, while Harris' 1,034 yards in 2022 accounted for 67.4%.
Add it up, and Warren is -- analytically speaking -- projected to see about 8% more volume and account for about 6% more of the Steelers' rushing production this season.
"I would expect more out of everybody, not just one person," Harris said during mandatory minicamp. "We've got a lot of guys in that running back room who's going to be able to contribute, too. But to go with Jaylen, him coming in obviously helped me out a lot and the step is always what you want to see from Year 1 to Year 2. We're all excited for that. We all believe that he's going to make a big jump. Not only him but a lot of people in the room, too. This is a team sport, we've got a lot of good guys in that room right now, and we're all waiting to get that role and capitalize in that role and really take advantage of the roles that we have because I feel like that room alone is going to be the focal point of the offense."
All of the upticks from Warren's production would suggest a regression of sorts for Harris, at least as far as volume is concerned. Harris shouldered nearly three-quarters of the carries in 2022 despite dealing with early-season complications from a Lisfranc sprain sustained over the summer. It took Warren up until the final month of the season for him to see a double-digit-carry game and that will be unlikely to repeat in 2023, and that could stand to benefit Harris in the longterm.
