Nothing will be more important for the Penguins this offseason than figuring out what they're going to do between the pipes. That starts with making a decision on Tristan Jarry, who is a pending unrestricted free agent. His career inconsistencies make giving him another contract risky, but such is life when dealing with goaltending.
Kyle Dubas, hired as president of hockey operations on Thursday, already has a strong grasp on all of this.
"I can tell you exactly what we’ll do here," he responded when asked about the Penguins' goaltending situation during his introductory press conference at PPG Paints Arena on Thursday. "Having not been with Tristan every day, I’ll obviously rely on Andy Chiodo, who’s the goaltending coach, and Mike (Sullivan) in terms of what he’s all about as a person. I’ll probably try to take the chance to meet him myself and get to know him. It’s a big decision for the club."
The Penguins badly needed some fresh air breathed into the organization and they got it, as evidenced by a significant chunk of the fan base seemingly ready to run through a wall after hearing his opening remarks.
However, emotions are temporary. The time will come -- and it will be soon -- for Dubas to walk the walk. He's off to a great start by recognizing how high the No 1. goalie position should be on this summer's priority list, referring to it as "vitally important."
If the goal is to win another Stanley Cup with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, which it most certainly is, the decision on whether or not to bring Jarry back or look elsewhere for the team's starter pretty much has to be the right one.
Those who are Dubas skeptics point out that he did not do a good job of solidifying Toronto's goaltending during his five seasons as general manager. For the most part, that's true.
When Dubas took over with the Maple Leafs in 2018-19, he inherited Frederik Andersen's contract -- a deal signed by Lou Lamoriello -- featuring a $5 million annual cap hit through 2020-21 with a 10-team no-trade list. That was perfectly fine in Dubas' rookie season as a general manager. Andersen wasn't superb, but he performed above expectations and provided surplus value.
The next few years were very different. Andersen allowed a staggering 21.4 more goals than expected over the following two seasons, running through the end of his contract. Amidst his struggles, Jack Campbell was acquired from the Kings. That deal panned out for a while, but flipped on its head at the end.
Campbell played well in a timeshare during Andersen's final season in Toronto and then earned himself the starter's job in 2021-22. He was fantastic through several months, but ultimately crashed hard without recovering. He basically became unplayable in the latter stages. That left the majority of time in net to Petr Mrazek and Erik Kallgren, who allowed over 20 more goals than expected, combined. It was a mess.
Dubas traded Mrazek's contract and let Campbell walk to free agency that offseason. He then took a major gamble on Matt Murray and traded for him at a reduced price of $4.86 million per season, through 2023-24, after showing signs of life with the Senators. Injuries hindered his performance and limited him to just 26 appearances in the crease.
Luckily for Dubas and the Maple Leafs, he'd also nabbed Ilya Samsonov in free agency at just $1.8 million for the season. In Murray's absence, he saved 21.2 goals above expected in 42 appearances, which was good for ninth in the NHL, per Evolving-Hockey. He was a top goaltender on a value deal ... during the regular season. Unfortunately, he posted a sub-.900 save percentage in nine postseason appearances and lost the starting job.
So, what's going to be different this time? Well, there is the possibility it won't be. That's the nature of goaltending. Dubas acknowledged the position is "difficult to project and predict, and there’s a lot of variance year to year in terms of performance."
Heck, Sergei Bobrovsky wasn't even the Panthers' starter coming into the postseason and now he's on a ridiculous run. It's arguably the most important position in hockey, yet it's certifiably the most volatile.
With that in mind, the plan Dubas shared to address the position is exactly what needs to happen.
"Then, it’s going to be doing a very thorough evaluation of Tristan, where stands in the marketplace, get a real scope of who’s going to be available, whether that’s in free agency or trade," Dubas said. "And then, if Tristan is at the top of that mix or in that mix, because he’s familiar and you know him, it’ll be to try to establish a concept that can get done with he and his agent."
Going into next season with Jarry isn't appealing. I've pushed against the idea of doing so, but I've also warned that his injuries and up-and-down performance might have dropped his value to the point that he'd be worth rolling the dice on at a lower cap hit.
Jarry might actually be the best of the goaltenders set to become free agents this summer, even accounting for his flaws. Andersen, who will be 34 at the start of next season, would likely serve as a lateral move, at best. Adin Hill is a somewhat intriguing option based on his work in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but he's never started more than 25 games in a season. The rest of the crop largely consists of older, wilting goalies who don't inspire much confidence.
On the trade market, it appears as though two of the game's best in Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck might be available. Maybe even Jeremy Swayman (restricted free agent), too. Would any of them be worth shipping out futures assets to solidify the position? Is there a sleeper candidate to be dealt?
Every last bit of it will be considered.
Dubas isn't committing to anything, one way or the other. He's going to evaluate all avenues with a level-headed, informed approach, which is precisely how the situation must be navigated. There's no guaranteeing the end result, but the process here can't be argued with.
The Penguins' hockey operations department desperately needed more intent, purpose and thoughtfulness at the very top. Now they have it.
