The Penguins currently have seven forwards, six defensemen and one goalie from this season's NHL roster under contract for next season. Their raw projected cap space figure seems significant, but with as many spots as they'll need to fill, they aren't going to have a ton of wiggle room.
They have 10 players who are set to become unrestricted or restricted free agents this offseason. Let's take a look at each of them and whether or not the Penguins should consider re-signing them, grouped by position, then listed by their cap hit from this season.
FORWARDS
Jason Zucker, 31, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 78
G: 27
A: 21
P: 48
In the final season of his contract, Zucker finally became the player the Penguins hoped to be getting when they acquired him from the Wild. Perhaps the biggest factor was that he remained healthy, missing only four games. He led the team in 5-on-5 goals with 24, which was tied for 14th in the entire league. He had one of the highest individual impacts toward his team's ability to generate quality offense in the NHL, as the Penguins generated a team-high (by a wide margin) 3.81 expected goals for per hour when he was on the ice at full-strength.
It feels a bit bizarre after being one of his biggest defenders prior to this season, but I've been on the fence about re-signing Zucker. The reality is that the Penguins aren't likely to replace his character and passion with anyone set to be available in free agency. I know that much. I also can't ignore the fact that his availability has been an issue prior to this season, even though Taylor Haase has reminded me the two big chunks of time he missed were due to isolated injuries. There were, however, previous signs of his overall impact taking a hit, which wouldn't have been all that out of line with the age curve for wingers of his caliber. I also don't think it should be ignored that this was a bit of a personal "something-to-prove" season that happened to line up with a contract year. But again, his absence would leave plenty of tangible and intangible gaps that aren't likely to be replaced in free agency.
Ultimately, the term on his next contract isn't of much concern because of the Penguins' competitive window. It's all about the annual cap hit, in my eyes. It wouldn't surprise me at all if other teams are willing to give him a slight raise over the $5.5 million per season he was previously making, but I'd be hesitant with anything over $5 million per season if I was the yet-to-be-hired general manager of the Penguins. It's not that he doesn't deserve more, but the Penguins need to treat their cap space like gold at this juncture. That kind of money allows for the ability to land an impact player via trade, so if the Penguins do bring him back, they must be sure he can continue being one for them.
Nick Bonino, 36, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 62
G: 10
A: 9
P: 19
Bringing Bonino back as depth up front at the trade deadline for a low cost of acquisition and insignificant cap implications was a solid move, but he appeared in only three games with the Penguins due to a lacerated kidney. He still brings decent defensive impacts to the table at this stage of his career, but with the Penguins needing to pivot toward some youth throughout their lineup, I don't see much of a reason to bring him back when similar, younger players will be available. He should be able to find a role elsewhere as a fourth-line center for another season.
Danton Heinen, 28, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 65
G: 8
A: 14
P: 22
This season did not go the way Heinen or the Penguins had hoped after coming off a season in which he scored 15 goals at 5-on-5 despite averaging the least ice-time of regular Penguins skaters. He was still well worth the $1 million contract, but he was incredibly streaky after a red-hot start and even found himself out of the lineup as a healthy scratch on a number of occasions.
I disagree with the notion from many that he doesn't help the team in the slightest when he's not scoring and actually think he does quite a few of the little things that often go unnoticed, which would explain his offensive and defensive impacts remaining nearly identical from a season ago despite this year's lack of production. That said, I can understand wanting to shift gears as he is rather inconsistent and isn't overly physical or aggressive. Of course, they could do a heck of a lot worse than Heinen at a $1 million price tag. I'd wait to see how things shake out further up the lineup before deciding on him one way or the other, but it won't be the end of the world if he plays elsewhere next season.
Josh Archibald, 31, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 62
G: 6
A: 6
P: 12
I was dead-wrong about the Archibald signing last offseason. I wrote him off as depth fodder incapable of making much of a contribution, but he proved to be a very strong defensive presence and brought a bit of juice with his rambunctious, physical style. At times he even flashed the ability to make plays off the rush, though he was basically a non-factor offensively, otherwise. He did miss 20 games due to injury, which just comes with the territory of being a grindy fourth-line winger.
Like Heinen, I think the Penguins could do worse than bringing Archibald back at a $900,000 price tag, but he certainly isn't irreplaceable. I'd be more inclined to give a younger player a shot in that role. If that doesn't pan out, another Archibald can be acquired via trade for basically nothing.
Ryan Poehling, 24, restricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 53
G: 7
A: 7
P: 14
Poehling turned out to be quite a bit more than just a throw-in when Jeff Petry was acquired. It was a struggle for him to stay healthy as he dealt with a nagging upper-body injury, but when he was in the lineup, he brought a pretty solid game to the table, especially on the penalty-kill. He plays with a ton of pace and even clocked the fastest speed of any NHL skater this season. He did finish the year centering the third line, but for now he seems to be best-suited for a fourth-line role. Upon reflection, Poehling felt like he finally solidified himself as an NHLer and thoroughly appreciated how much his coaching staff believed in him.
This is exactly the kind of player the Penguins should be looking at to bolster their depth. Relatively young, mostly takes care of business defensively, has moderate offensive upside and possesses the physical tools required in Mike Sullivan's bottom six. He's a restricted free agent, so if the Penguins want him back, he'll be back. And it'll be at a really cheap rate. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
Alex Nylander, 25, restricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 9
G: 1
A: 1
P: 2
I'll keep this rather brief because I dove into Nylander's game and future with the team in last week's Drive to the Net. Essentially, he's anything but a proven commodity, but I'd have a hard time moving on from his offensive potential after seeing how many giant strides his game took on the forecheck, in transition defense and in the defensive zone.
He'll need to be more productive than the two points in nine games he produced if the Penguins have him in their plans for next season, no doubt. I just can't help but be intrigued by what he could do in a middle-six winger role while on a bargain-bin deal. Worst case, he's an adequate extra forward who isn't hurting the cap situation at all. He, too, is a restricted free agent, so he'll be back if the Penguins want him to be.
Drew O'Connor, 25, restricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 46
G: 5
A: 6
P: 11
O'Connor played a career-high 46 games this season while embracing his straight-ahead speed, most notably making an impact on the forecheck. His possession impacts weren't quite as strong as the prior season and he is a bit limited as a finisher and playmaker, but he is a quality, if unspectacular, depth piece. What stood out to me the most is that he was able to do his thing no matter who he was on a line with, including Jeff Carter.
Bringing O'Connor back seems like another no-brainer. He'll be cheap, he has proven that he won't hurt the team when he's out on the ice and, hey, they need as many young, quick legs as they can get.
DEFENSEMEN
Brian Dumoulin, 32, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 82
G: 1
A: 24
P: 25
Sadly, several significant lower-body injuries have turned Dumoulin into a shell of his former self. Although he just posted a career-high point total, he had the lowest on-ice goals share (42.6%) and on-ice expected goals share (50.6%) at 5-on-5 of all Penguins defensemen this season. Nobody on the team played more than he did at full-strength. The Penguins were minus-18 in goals during that time. His game stabilized in the latter stages of the year, but he was still a liability in his own end (both at evens and on the penalty-kill) far too often. That strikes me as a serious problem considering defense has always been the calling card of his game.
Dumoulin still has a place in the NHL, but it can't be as a top-pairing guy. One of the Penguins' biggest priorities over the offseason should be finding a left-handed defenseman to replace him, because they simply have no room for him on the second or third pairing. Both Marcus Pettersson and P.O Joseph are still under contract next season to fill out the left side of the second and third pairing and, even if Pettersson is bumped up to play with Kris Letang, Dumoulin is not a good fit next to Petry. And really, second-pairing duties aren't ideal for Dumoulin at this point, anyway. Let's just say they move on from Joseph or use him as a No. 7 to let Dumoulin play third-pairing minutes. His partner in such a scenario would be Jan Rutta. That won't cut it, either.
The Penguins wouldn't have won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017 without him, but all good things must come to an end. They'd be wise to turn the page on Dumoulin's chapter.
Dmitry Kulikov, 32, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
GP: 67
G: 3
A: 13
P: 16
Acquiring Kulikov was just as much about bolstering defensive depth as it was about getting Brock McGinn's $2.75 million cap hit off the books for the next two seasons. Like Bonino, Kulikov appeared in only a handful of games after the trade due to an injury. I don't think he played poorly in those games, but I don't think he played well. Quite frankly, I basically view him as a left-handed version of Rutta.
He's had positive impacts in the past before disastrous impacts playing on the Ducks' top pairing for most of this season, but at his age and considering the need for a lefty who can play with Letang or Petry, I'm not seeing a fit here.
GOALIE
Tristan Jarry, 28, unrestricted free agent
2022-23 stats
24-13-7
SV%: .909
GAA: 2.90
GSAx: 1.1
Nothing will be more important for the Penguins this offseason than figuring out what they're going to do between the pipes, and that starts with making a decision on Jarry. After having one of the worst single-series performances of any goalie in the stats era when the Penguins played the Islanders in the first round of the 2021 postseason, he has done absolutely nothing to legitimately prove himself as the guy in two seasons since.
He turned in the best regular season of his career in 2021-22, but was unavailable for all but one game of the first round of the playoffs due to a broken foot. He then followed that up with an injury-riddled season in which he performed only slightly better than a league-average goalie. I've never been one to advocate for change for the sake of it, but I just don't see how the Penguins can run it back with him after so many letdowns at the most crucial times.
There's a case to be made that Jarry actually played his way into a spot in which he's a candidate for a cheap, short-term deal. I don't think the Penguins should be buying. Instead of making what would likely be a lateral move in signing a goalie from the free agent pool, like Frederik Andersen, I'd be looking for the team's next No. 1 via trade.
The Penguins have a number of free agents in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, as well. That includes players like Ty Smith and Valtteri Puustinen. A separate story on them will be coming soon.
