NEW YORK -- It's not anything new to state that the two players who have seen the biggest drop offs in their play this season are Jeff Carter and Brian Dumoulin. You already knew that.
Dejan had a column after the Penguins' 4-2 loss here in New York on Thursday about the pair, if you needed the reminder.
No, they're not the Penguins' lone problems. The blame for most losses, even most goals where they're factors, don't rest solely on their shoulders. They even do actually contribute in the occasional positive way, as with Carter ranking No. 6 in the entire league in faceoffs this season. But more often than not, the two have been two of the more weaker spots in the Penguins' lineup.
That's exceptionally true when they're on the ice together.
You probably could have guessed that the Penguins' on-ice results haven't been great when both Carter and Dumoulin are on the ice at the same time, but the actual results have been so much more stark than one might imagine. In almost every category you can think of, the Penguins' results are best when neither player is on the ice, then drop off to some degree when just one of them is on the ice, then nosedives when both players are out there together.
I'm talking about their results strictly at five-on-five -- obviously, Dumoulin is the Penguins' most frequent penalty-killer, and Carter is among the forwards on the current roster with the most penalty-kill time. It would be disingenuous (and just really poor practice with any advanced stats) to lump it all in together, given how often both players are out there shorthanded. Deployment matters, and using all-situation stats is just unfair and misleading.
We have enough of that five-on-five ice time to work with to consider these decent sample sizes, too. The Penguins have played 1,641 minutes at five-on-five this season with neither player on the ice, 479 minutes with Carter on the ice without Dumoulin, 916 minutes with Dumoulin on the ice without Carter, and 244 minutes with both Carter and Dumoulin on the ice at the same time.
With that all in mind, here's a breakdown of those results with both Carter and Dumoulin on the ice this season at five-on-five, some contributing factors that have to be considered, and what can possibly be done.
All of these stats are presented with a total count at five-on-five (for vs. allowed), with a percentage showing the ratio. Anything above 50% is good -- they're on the ice for more chances/goals for than against. Anything below 50% is bad -- they're allowing more than they're generating. To make things easier to see at a glance, I'll italicize the best and bold the worst results for each category. You might even start to see a little pattern.
SHOT ATTEMPTS
No Dumoulin or Carter: 1,799-1,570 (53.40%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 437-472 (48.07%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 978-882 (52.58%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 196-241 (44.85%)
UNBLOCKED SHOT ATTEMPTS
No Dumoulin or Carter: 1,345-1,117 (53.33%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 338-347 (49.34%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 716-650 (52.42%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 134-178 (42.95%)
HIGH-DANGER SHOT ATTEMPTS
No Dumoulin or Carter: 421-342 (55.18%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 96-99 (49.23%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 209-167 (55.59%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 39-65 (37.50%)
SHOTS ON GOAL
No Dumoulin or Carter: 951-887 (51.74%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 257-258 (49.90%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 510-475 (51.78%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 100-131 (43.29%)
EXPECTED GOALS
No Dumoulin or Carter: 91.91-74.81 (55.13%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 21.9-20.91 (51.16%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 45.08-38.91 (53.68%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 8.23-11.84 (41%)
GOALS
No Dumoulin or Carter: 84-71 (54.19%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 17-15 (53.13%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 39-38 (50.65%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 3-22 (12%)
GOALS FROM HIGH-DANGER CHANCES
No Dumoulin or Carter: 50-39 (56.18%)
Carter without Dumoulin: 8-11 (42.11%)
Dumoulin without Carter: 25-24 (51.02%)
Dumoulin and Carter together: 1-13 (7.14%)
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
As I said before, deployment matters. Carter, more than anyone else, has been deployed in a role that isn't exactly conducive to good on-ice stats, and that's mostly a result of his faceoff prowess. If there's a key defensive zone draw, he's the one taking it. When Carter and Dumoulin aren't on the ice, the Penguins are taking 59.29% of their draws in the offensive zone, because Carter does most of the heavy lifting in that area. Carter only sees 26.43% of his faceoffs come in the offensive zone. That's a massive change for him personally -- in his last two seasons with the Penguins' he's seen 40% and 43.17% of his faceoffs come in the offensive zone respectively. The last time in Carter's entire career that he's seen fewer than 40% of his faceoffs come in the offensive zone was in the 2007-08 season, and even then he still saw 38.77% of his draws come in the offensive end.
Obviously, bottom-six players in general have less of an offensive role. But that's not a factor here. For example, here is Dumoulin's shots on goal with and without both Danton Heinen and Josh Archibald, two players who have played on the third and fourth lines this season.
No Dumoulin or Heinen: 1021-965 (51.41%)
Heinen without Dumoulin: 187-180 (50.95%)
Dumoulin without Heinen: 534-528 (50.28%)
Dumoulin and Heinen together: 76-78 (49.35%)
No Dumoulin or Archibald: 1086-1025 (51.44%)
Archibald without Dumoulin: 122-120 (50.41%)
Dumoulin without Archibald: 537-537 (50%)
Dumoulin and Archibald together: 73-69 (51.41%)
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
The Penguins aren't exactly in a position to have the luxury of sitting guys.
There is no cap space without putting someone other than Dmitry Kulikov on long-term injured reserve -- Nick Bonino could go on long-term injured reserve if he's not expected back before April 4, but he might not be out that long. Jeff Petry was still being evaluated as of Friday afternoon, so there's no clue yet whether he might be out long enough to meet the 10-game. 24-day minimums for long-term injured reserve.
Entering Thursday's game, the only extra players were Chad Ruhwedel and Heinen Ruhwedel probably isn't an "extra" anymore, assuming Petry will be sidelined for Saturday's game. Sure, Heinen could get in for Carter, but that's not happening. The only options who have recent center experience at the NHL level but who are currently playing wing are Drew O'Connor and Ryan Poehling. Knocking O'Connor down to the fourth line to play center isn't the answer, especially given how frequently Mike Sullivan has noted that the coaching staff prefers him as a wing. Poehling has also been much stronger as a wing than a center this season, and has the worst faceoff results of any player the Penguins have used this season for more than three games, at 42.69%. That's a massive drop-off from Carter's 58.96%. That alone makes it not worth it.
Even if the Penguins had cap space to recall a player from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton capable of playing center, options are limited. Jonathan Gruden and Sam Poulin were both used as centers for a couple of games this season. Poulin was actually pretty good in a bottom-six center role, but he's really not an option at this point. He's only just now returning to Wilkes-Barre after a three-month absence for mental health reasons and hasn't played a game yet. Maybe he's in the conversation for a regular bottom-six center role next season, but not right now.
Whenever Bonino comes back -- and he is expected back before playoffs -- then there can be a real conversation about which forward sits, or which current bottom-six center gets shifted back to wing. Mikael Granlund has been moved to third-line center since Bonino's injury, and has fared alright in the role, given that he had played mostly wing with Nashville as of late prior to the trade. He's re-adjusting to being a center again, and looks more comfortable as the games go on, and is taking steps forward with getting those faceoff numbers up from the 43.26% he had in his limited time at center this season with the Predators.
The defense is the same story. Maybe when Kulikov is activated -- which can't even happen until there's a week left remaining in the regular season at the very earliest -- then there's an interesting conversation to be had about which left-handed defenseman comes out, if P.O Joseph is able to shake off these last two games and get going again. But even that's pretty far off, even if Kulikov comes back at the first chance possible. And even if there were cap space for a recall, options are limited. Ty Smith has been out for the last month with a facial fracture. Mark Friedman is the best they've got down there, and then it's a steep, steep drop-off after that.
Nobody is getting moved to the press box and getting to try the new jalapeño cheese-stuffed pretzels that the arena chefs brought in just before the trade deadline. Not now, at least.
All that can be done for the time being is managing the roles of either player during the game -- keep them off the ice in key situations, like close games in the final minutes. And definitely don't put them out on the ice together at all costs.
