North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Breakout picks for 2023

It's safe to say that Endy Rodriguez and Mitch Keller were the Pirates' two breakout players in 2022. Rodriguez was one of the minor-leagues best hitters and Keller rediscovered his velocity, added some new pitches to the mix and turned in his best season as a pro. They were a couple wins for Pirates' player development, giving them some impact players for 2023.

So who is positioned for a similar breakout in 2023?

Going based on conversations I've had recently with league sources and people who have watched these young players in action, I had compiled a list of four players -- two hitters, two pitchers, one in the majors and minors for both -- who I believe will be those breakout players this season. This is based off of what I have heard, the data that is available or has been obtained and other factors that signal growth. We start with the hitters.

MAJOR-LEAGUE HITTER: RODOLFO CASTRO

There's no guarantee Castro will be the Pirates' opening day second baseman, as Derek Shelton made it clear during a recent media availability that it's a competition. It's hard to imagine anyone besides Castro or Ji Hwan Bae holding that position early in the year, though. Perhaps things change midseason if Liover Peguero or Nick Gonzales earn a call up, but for those first couple months, something has to go wrong for Castro for him not to play.

You can divide Castro's season last year into two halves: His first stint in the majors and his second stint. The first was rough. He hit .197 with just a .565 OPS over 21 games played and was demoted back to the minors after not hustling. His second stint did not get off to a much better start after losing his cell phone mid-slide, but that was just a hiccup to what would end up being a strong finish.

In his 200 plate appearances after his call up on August 9, Castro slashed .247/.310/.478 with 10 home runs and three stolen bases. Going by FanGraphs' WAR calculations, his 1.1 WAR during that stint was only bested on the team by Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz (1.2 WAR each). It's an arbitrary start date, but the only National League second basemen who produced more WAR than him during those final eight weeks were Jeff McNeil and Tommy Edman.

That improvement was made possible by becoming more selective at the plate. He's always been an aggressive hitter, but he was able to cut down on the chases, and it had a noticeable impact on his results:

FANGRAPHS

The question here is can Castro build on this in 2023? We know he has pop, and it's not unreasonable to think that he and Cruz could be one of the best slugging middle infields in baseball But it's hard to make quality contact against bad pitches. He took a step forward last year and showed some growth. If he does that again, then that second base job isn't going to be open to a competition for long.

MINOR-LEAGUE HITTER: DARIEL LOPEZ

Lopez is young (he turns 21 this week), prone to errors in the field (he made 25 at various infield positions over 98 games last year) and has swing-and-miss problems (15% whiff rate). That all played a factor for why he was not added to the roster this winter, though it didn't seem all that likely that an A-ball infielder would be taken.

So why did I pick Lopez as the minor-league breakout hitter? Well, he maxed out at 109 mph for his exit velocity last season.

Like Castro, this is a simple case of can Lopez cut down on his chases. Last year, he chased 38% of breaking balls that were out of the zone and whiffed 18% of the time against the pitch. He was inconsistent against the fastball too and his average exit velocity was only ok (85 mph) despite occasionally registering some eye-opening numbers. But the word of mouth on him is really good. He's raw, but the potential is there.

He should make the jump to Class AA Altoona this year, which is probably the best place for him to be. Manager Callix Crabbe and hitting coach Jon Nunnally are two solid offensive minds, and the two oversaw some young hitters with swing and miss problems (Jack Suwinski, Matt Gorski) take a step forward last year. Lopez is a good candidate for a similar improvement.

If he clicks, his best comp is probably... Rodolfo Castro. I guess I'm buying into a type of hitter this year. Kind of goes against the speedier, more contact-oriented shift the league seems to want to make with the new shift rules.

MAJOR-LEAGUE PITCHER: COLIN SELBY

Late last season, I was told that Selby was one of the best relief pitchers who has passed through Altoona in a while. The Curve had some really intriguing bullpen arms last year -- Tahnaj Thomas took a step forward in his development, Tyler Samaniego was named the organization's relief pitcher of the year, J.C. Flowers has one of the best breaking balls in the system -- but Selby was the guy who stood out the most.

It seems safe to say the Pirates agreed, and they added the right-hander to the 40 man roster this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

A former 16th-round pick, the 25-year-old Selby took a big step forward in 2022, recording a 2.20 ERA, a nearly 30% strikeout rate and a 53% ground ball rate with the Curve. He did it with a fastball that sat around 96-98 mph and a breaking ball that averaged over 2,500 RPM of spin in the Arizona Fall League. He also has the ability to take some spin off of that slider to make it more of a cutter when desired, giving him another weapon based on matchups.

"I just wanted something that was a little harder, so the second half of last year, I started throwing this cutter that's sometimes a slider, sometimes not," Selby told me in a one-on-one late last season.

Selby had to journey through a Tommy John surgery and a transition to the bullpen, but he's been able to find a good mental head space through those challenges. He has minor-league options remaining, so I imagine he's going to bounce between the majors and minors. at least to start the year. Keep an eye on him when he gets that major-league opportunity.

MINOR-LEAGUE PITCHER: JARED JONES

Jones was an second-round pick who signed over-slot in 2020, and so far, he has flashed some great stuff with pretty pedestrian results. Last year he posted a 4.62 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 over 122 2/3 innings for Class High-A Greensboro, a very hitter-friendly environment.

That may explain why Jones had ugly home run numbers (1.4 HR/9) despite holding hitters to just an 85 mph average exit velocity, well better than average. Put him in a more neutral park like PNG Field in Altoona and that number, and his ERA, should go down.

The question with Jones now is does he have that third pitch. The report I got on him said the curveball has regressed. He still has a fastball that sits about 95 mph with a ton of spin (2,550 RPM), and his slider is still an above-average pitch that got a whiff 20% of the time last year. Those are two really good tools to work with, assuming he can locate them.

If he doesn't show that third pitch, then it might be worth exploring moving him to a bullpen role. The fastball and slider are good enough, I'm told, that he could be a late-inning option. If he finds that curveball again, or if his changeup develops, then he can be a viable major-league starting option.

I've heard the phrase "pitcher over thrower" a couple times this offseason, whether it was from Oscar Marin or Rich Hill, when talking about pitching ideologies. Right now, Jones is a thrower. There's a lot of development to be had, but his third full year of pro ball is a reasonable timetable to expect that next step. Also keep in mind that the breakout pitcher in the system last year was another fireballer who made the jump to Altoona, Luis Ortiz. Can it happen again?