ALTOONA, Pa. -- This is one of those deals where the picture above really tells the story.
As we sit here in mid-January, there's an amazing coincidence that the two college programs we cover most here at DKPS -- Pitt and Penn State -- find themselves in fascinating positions.
There are 363 Division I basketball programs. As of Friday's bracketology update, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Pitt as the 68th and last team projected to make the NCAA Tournament field, while Penn State is the first team out.
That's what you call ZERO margin for error. For both programs.
Pitt, which has lost two in a row, plays today at Georgia Tech. Our Corey Crisan is there in Atlanta, and you can follow along with the live file, plus ready Corey's preview about the Panthers' more favorable upcoming schedule.
In short, Pitt simply cannot afford to lose this game today. Georgia Tech is 8-8 overall, 1-5 in the ACC and buried at No. 147 in the NCAA NET rankings.
Pitt (11-6, 4-2 ACC) is No. 65 in the NET.
When you're on the bubble, you just can't lose to the No. 147 team. But it should be noted that Tech's lone ACC win was at home 10 days ago against No. 12 Miami, which is 14-2 overall and 5-1 in the ACC, so Pitt cannot take the Yellow Jackets lightly.
Crisan's story has an excellent breakdown of what Pitt needs to do coming up to remain on the right side of the bubble.
Penn State (12-5, 3-3 Big Ten) is coming off a tremendous performance in an 85-66 win over Indiana, the Nittany Lions' largest margin of victory ever against the Hoosiers. Penn State's next game is Tuesday at No. 18 Wisconsin, and the Lions have never won at the Kohl Center in Madison.
Anyone who has watched the Lions closely this season would tell you that they pass the eye test of an NCAA Tournament team. Not only that, they have the kind of weapons you need to win a couple of games in the tourney if they get the right matchups.
In all honesty, it's surprising that Lunardi has Pitt ahead of Penn State on the bubble, even if only by one measly spot. The Lions' NET ranking is 51st, which is 14 spots higher than the Panthers.
However, there's a key factor that's in Pitt's favor right now. The Panthers are 3-2 against Quad 1 competition, while the Lions are 1-2. We've seen in recent years that the committee loves Quad 1 victories, and right now, Penn State's lone win was that blowout this week of Indiana.
We wrote at the time of the two close losses to Virginia Tech in a neutral-site tournament and at Clemson that those could come back to haunt Penn State. The Clemson loss was in double-overtime, and that would have been a Quad 1 win had the Lions prevailed. The Virginia Tech game would have counted as a Quad 2 win, but it wasn't meant to be.
Penn State has a much more difficult remaining schedule than Pitt, with the Big Ten having more depth and quality teams than the ACC. The Lions must find a way to finish 10-10 in the Big Ten plus win one conference tournament game, and that should be enough to crack the field of 68, probably as one of the last four teams.
As mentioned above, both of these teams have zero margin for error. But the bottom line is both are still very much in control of their own destinies and can prove it on the court whether they deserve to go dancing or not.
