EL PASO, Texas -- Pitt's 2022 season concludes with perhaps the toughest matchup it will see in the 2022 season.
The 18th-ranked UCLA Bruins bring pop on offense and an NFL-style defensive front to the Panthers' eyes on Friday at 2 p.m. in the Sun Bowl, in a matchup which is laden with NFL-caliber talent and one which could vault the Panthers back into a top-25 ranking with a victory.
A win for UCLA (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12) would give Chip Kelly his first 10-win season in his five years as the Bruins' head coach. He won 10 or more games in each of his four seasons at Oregon before taking the step to the NFL and the Philadelphia Eagles for three seasons (26-21 record) and the San Francisco 49ers for a forgettable 2-14 mark in 2016.
A win for Pitt (8-4, 5-3 ACC) would bring some validity to what some would say is a down year after winning the ACC championship in 2021. Pat Narduzzi would gain his second season of at least nine wins over the last three years, and it would give him his second bowl victory in four years (2019 Quick Lane Bowl over Eastern Michigan).
Friday's game is the 15th meeting all-time between Pitt and UCLA, but it will be the first since Sept. 16, 1972, at Pitt Stadium. UCLA won that game, 38-28. The last Pitt win against the Bruins came the year prior, when the Panthers won 29-25 on Sept. 11, 1971, inside the LA Memorial Coliseum. Pitt enters Friday 5-9 all-time against UCLA.
The Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, will be the first neutral-site matchup between the teams.
What that in mind, who has the advantage in a breakdown of Friday's matchup? Let's dive in:
• Pitt passing offense vs. UCLA passing defense
Pitt ranked 79th in Football Bowl Subdivision in passing offense at 221.2 yards per game while scoring 12 touchdowns through the air. That was led primarily by Kedon Slovis, who is now at BYU and gives way to veteran quarterback Nick Patti on Friday. Patti has played in just two games and has attempted 20 passes all season -- all in the second half against Tennessee in Week 2 -- and will have a relatively depleted receiving corps to work with. Top receiver Jared Wayne registered 55 receptions for 1,012 yards and five touchdowns, and he became the fifth unique Pitt receiver ever to achieve 200 yards in a game, in his last appearance at Miami after Thanksgiving. Wayne caught 11 passes for 205 yards and three touchdowns against the Hurricanes.
But, there is a steady drop-off from there. Konata Mumpfield caught 51 passes for just 473 yards and one touchdown, and Bub Means hauled in 23 passes for 317 yards and a touchdown this season. Pitt is without the since-transferred Jaden Bradley and Jaylon Barden, as they have been for the final portion of the season, and their fourth-leading pass catcher among wide receivers entering the Sun Bowl is Gavin Thomson, who has caught just two passes this season. Tight end Gavin Bartholomew, whose usage remains a mystery to many, has 20 catches on the year.
This matchup, however, is still a good one for Pitt on paper. UCLA was one of the worst teams in FBS at defending the pass, ranking 120th with 275.7 yards per game allowed. The Bruins have permitted 24 passing touchdowns in their 12 games, and they have not scored a defensive touchdown while accumulating just 10 interceptions on the year. Their top defensive back is redshirt senior safety Stephan Blaylock, who is more prone to defending the pass than he is the run, with just one interception and zero passes defended recorded this season. Still, Blaylock was an honorable mention All-Pac-12 selection. UCLA can get to the quarterback, though, as the Bruins ranked fifth in the Pac-12 with 27 sacks.
"Nick's a veteran," Panthers offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. said during the coordinators' press conference on Tuesday in El Paso. "He's been at the University of Pittsburgh for a long time. He's a winner, he's a leader, his teammates respect him, his teammates believe in him. We are really excited -- I know I'm personally very excited to have coached him these last couple weeks as the starting quarterback. We're excited to see Nick go out there and lead us. Nick's been out there with Rodney (Hammond Jr.) and Jared and Gavin (Bartholomew) and all these guys all year, and not just this year, but some of these guys in the past. They have great belief in Nick, and I know Nick has great belief in them."
ADVANTAGE: Pitt
• Pitt rushing offense vs. UCLA rushing defense
This is where the REAL test for Pitt lies on offense. That is not to discredit either of the Panthers' running backs Hammond, Vincent Davis, or C'Bo Flemister, but this is more of a credit to UCLA and its front seven run by coordinator Bill McGovern, a former NFL coach who was on Kelly's staff in Philadelphia.
UCLA was 30th in FBS in defending the run, allowing 124.2 yards per game. It allowed just 16 rushing touchdowns and 3.74 yards per carry to opposing teams. Redshirt junior linebacker Laiatu Latu was a first-team All-Pac-12 pick after finishing second in the conference in sacks with 9.5 (but the Bruins did not get much production behind him in that regard), and his 11 tackles for loss tied for sixth in the conference. Senior inside linebacker Darius Muasau is the Bruins' leading tackler with 77.0 total stops. He was named to the All-Pac-12 second-team.
Pitt will be without superstar running back and ACC rushing title winner Israel Abanikanda, who is sitting out in preparation for the NFL Draft. Hammond is expected to see the lion's share of the work after rushing 84 times for 367 yards and three touchdowns in seven games.
"I'm really impressed with UCLA, and this one's a little close to my heart because their defensive coordinator Billy McGovern's a good friend of mine," Cignetti said. "He's a great coach. Coached with him in the National Football League. You see it show up on tape. Multiple fronts, multiple coverages, multiple pressures. They do a great job coaching. They're talented. Their defensive line is athletic, their linebackers can run, and they've got a secondary that does a really good job of covering. This is going to be a great game. This is what you look forward to at the end of the year: Playing a good opponent, and going out there and playing some ball."
ADVANTAGE: UCLA
• UCLA passing offense vs. Pitt passing defense
Narduzzi said it on Monday, and Panthers defensive coordinator Randy Bates did not deny it on Tuesday: UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson reminds them of Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham.
"He's a tremendous thrower, and he also creates on passes with his feet," Bates said. "I think he's a good runner, and they have some run plays, but I think he is a game breaker on broken plays where you're trying to sack him and he breaks free. You can't cover everybody and stop him at all times, so keeping him in the pocket and keeping him from making big plays with his feet on pass plays I think is really critical, so I think that's something we spent a lot of time on."
If anything to that tone holds true, Pitt is going to have a tall task in stopping the athletic dual-threat.
The redshirt senior Thompson-Robinson accounted for 293.0 yards of offense per game this season, in the split of 52.7 rushing and 240.3 passing yards per game. He was hyper-efficient in completing 69.8% of his passes -- fourth in the NCAA -- for 2,883 yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions this season. His passing yard and touchdown totals are career-highs. Redshirt senior receiver Jake Bobo was an honorable-mention All-Pac-12 pick (as was Thompson-Robinson) after catching 54 passes for 789 yards and seven touchdowns, all team-highs.
Much like Pitt's receiving corps, though, there is a steep drop-off from that point. Kazmeir Allen has 49 catches for 403 yards and two touchdowns, and no other Bruin has caught more than 37 passes. Pitt is without safety Brandon Hill on Friday, but the replacement in Javon McIntyre had an interception at Miami, and will be flanked by Erick Hallett II in his final game as a Panther. M.J. Devonshire (eight pass breakups, two interceptions), A.J. Woods (team-high 13 pass breakups, one interception), and the underrated Marquis Williams (two interceptions, one pass breakup) will be on the field to lock up the lack of the Bruins' depth and help keep Thompson-Robinson contained. The Panthers allowed 224.2 passing yards per game this season, but their depth and athleticism on the outside favors them here.
ADVANTAGE: Pitt
• UCLA rushing offense vs. Pitt rushing defense
"They have one of the premier running offenses in the country," Bates said. "I believe we have to stop the run, and that's what we try to do at Pitt. As usual, that is our number one goal."
With that being said from Bates, we have to look at former Michigan transfer and second-team all-purpose All-American running back Zach Charbonnet. He won the Pac-12's rushing title with 1,359 yards in 10 games, and his 14 rushing touchdowns were second in the conference. He led the NCAA in all-purpose yards per game with 168.0 -- four yards per game greater than Abanikanda -- while plugging in 321 receiving yards.
As Bates said, Charbonnet is priority No. 1 for the Panthers' defense, which will be going forward without unanimous All-American Calijah Kancey (shoulder), leading tackler SirVocea Dennis (opt-out), and two-time captain Deslin Alexandre (opt-out) on Friday. As a result, Shayne Simon is listed as the starting middle linebacker, Brandon George is expected to return after playing in just three games this season, and Tylar WIltz and Bangally Kamara will re-assume their starting spots at outside linebacker. Expect Dayon Hayes to roll at defensive end, with Haba Baldonado potentially playing after missing time with a leg injury sustained at Virginia.
Can the Panthers overcome losing their two best players from their front seven? Or will Charbonnet have his way?
"Calijah's a phenomenal player," Bates said. "When you get a consensus All-American like him, it's a tough loss. The thing that's nice is we've been playing without him for a while. He got hurt several weeks ago, so we actually played the Miami game without him. We've been working just as we do. The nice thing on defense is we rotate a lot of players, so Calijah wasn't the only starter that we have. We've got a lot of kids who've started a lot of games. A lot of depth there, but certainly he is a tremendous loss."
ADVANTAGE: UCLA
• Special teams units
Pitt place-kicker Ben Sauls has made 15 of 19 field goals and all 45 of his PATs this season. After starting the season by making 5 of 8 field goal attempts in Pitt's first three games, Sauls has missed just one field goal -- an inconsequential 54-yard try at Virginia. Sauls has made 3 of 4 kicks in between 20 and 29 yards, 5 of 6 from 30 and 39 yards, 6 of 7 from 40 and 49 yards, and 1 of 2 beyond 50 yards. His season-long is a 51-yarder converted against Duke.
Pitt has experienced a carousel of punters this season, with Sam Vander Haar, Cam Guess, and Caleb Junko all booting balls. Vander Haar has punted 29 times for an average of 39.0 yards, and 11 have landed inside the 20-yard line. Junko's average of 43.0 yards per punt leads the team, though he has punted just nine times. All three made the trip to El Paso and are listed on the team's depth chart.
Devonshire had the majestic punt return for a touchdown in the Backyard Brawl, but the Panthers did not return another punt or any kickoffs for touchdowns. Abanikanda was the team's primary kick returner, so expect Hammond and Davis to handle those duties Friday.
Nicholas Barr-mira doubles as UCLA's primary place-kicker and punter. He made 15 of 21 field goals and made all 58 of his PATs. He had a strong start to his season in converting 11 of 14 kicks, but over his last five games, Barr-mira has made just 4 of his 7 tries. His season-long is a 49-yarder made in Week 3 against South Alabama.
Barr-mira has punted just 22 times this season. He averages 43.7 yards per boot, and eight punts have landed inside the opponent's 20. He has punted five balls for more than 50 yards.
UCLA has not returned a kick or a punt for a touchdown.
ADVANTAGE: Wash
• Head coaches
This coaching matchup is a clash of styles at its finest. The hard-hitting defense of Narduzzi versus the high-powered offense led by Kelly. The pedigree of building winning and stable programs at points in their respective careers. The experience and backing of two historically sound and reputable football programs.
Narduzzi led Pitt to a surge in November, as the Panthers finished the month with a 4-0 record. That followed a 1-3 record in October. The Panthers opened the season with a thrilling 38-31 win over West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, and fell to now-No. 6 Tennessee in overtime, 34-27, the following week. Pitt had achieved a season-high ranking of No. 17 in the AP poll, which it carried from the preseason and after the win in the Backyard Brawl. The Panthers dropped to No. 23 in the AP poll following the loss to Tennessee. They have not held a ranking since Oct. 6, following a home loss to Georgia Tech. Pitt received four votes in the most-recent Associated Press Top 25 poll released on Dec. 4 and in unranked in the College Football Playoff poll going into the Sun Bowl.
Kelly led the Bruins to back-to-back home wins over ranked Pac-12 rivals this year. UCLA topped No. 15 Washington 40-32 on Sept. 30, and followed it with a 42-32 triumph over No. 11 Utah the next week. UCLA achieved a No. 9 ranking in the AP Top 25 following those victories, but fell back to No. 12 after losing to No. 10 Oregon in the next week.
Let's ask the Asylum this question: Would you rather have Narduzzi or Kelly on your sideline on Friday? Who gets the advantage? Sound off in the comments.
Bates and Cignetti met with media members for a press conference Tuesday morning at the Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham in El Paso. Listen to everything they had to say below. Bates begins the press conference, and Cignetti takes the lectern at the 6:00-mark of the embedded video.
McGovern spoke on the lectern on Tuesday afternoon. You can watch his press conference in the embedded video below.
THE SCHEDULE
Here is a detailed schedule of all of the happenings around Pitt football for the rest of this week in El Paso (all times MST):
• WEDNESDAY: Pitt practice, 11:40 a.m., Eastwood High School, El Paso; Post-practice availability, 1:10 p.m., EHS.
• THURSDAY: Head coach press conferences -- Narduzzi at 10 a.m., Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham conference room, El Paso; Battle of the Bands, 4-7 p.m., Freedom Crossing, Fort Bliss. (NOTE: Thursday is a closed walkthrough for Pitt. No media access permitted to the team.)
• FRIDAY: Pregame fan party, 8:30 a.m., Glory Field (near Sun Bowl Stadium); Panther Walk, time TBD; Kickoff, 12 p.m., Sun Bowl Stadium.
