It's difficult to imagine that the return of one non-quarterback player could have a season-altering effect on a team.
But, when T.J. Watt takes the field Sunday at Acrisure Stadium, it could very well give the Steelers a semblance of life they haven't had since he went down with a pectoral injury in Week 1.
"Yes, I am very excited," Watt said Friday at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. "It's been a long time coming. I feel very good about the week that I had. I'm excited to play. Excited to be back at Acrisure Stadium and get the fans involved."
For the past seven games without Watt, the Steelers have turned what was once a season that stood an outside chance of a playoff spot into what could be Mike Tomlin's first losing season in Pittsburgh.
After racking up five takeaways and seven sacks in the Week 1 win over the Bengals, the defense has only recorded five takeaways and eight sacks in the seven games that followed. Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith get far more attention from opposing offenses. And, on top of the struggles up front, the 29th-ranked Steelers' defense hasn't been able to blitz more often in Watt's absence because the secondary has been ravaged by injuries.
But, is the return of just one player enough to actually turn this season around?
"I hope so," Watt said. "I think everybody in here is trying to find a spark and trying to get into the win column."
Since he was drafted in 2017, the Steelers are 1-10 when Watt doesn't start. Over his past 63 games, Watt's recorded 66 sacks. Over his entire career, he's got 73 sacks in 78 games.
You've seen it for yourself -- over and over and over again. When Watt isn't sacking the quarterback, he's making tackles in the run game. When he isn't helping there, he's dropping back in coverage or batting down passes at the line of scrimmage.
Even when Watt isn't in the center of the play, he elevates the rest of the defense.
"It definitely changes everything with a guy like that," Myles Jack told me this week. "He may set the edge one time. He may fake like he's setting the edge and go underneath and make a tackle for loss like I saw him do against Cincinnati. He's very unpredictable. I couldn't imagine having to block a guy like that."
The return of just one player shouldn't be enough to turn a 2-6 team around. But, Watt isn't like any other player in football. Regardless of what anyone says anywhere else about Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett or any other defender in football, nobody else in this game brings the same impact that Watt does.
And what really makes the reigning Defensive Player of the Year special isn't just what he does in the box score. It's also the leader he's become.
"It's huge, to finally have the helmet back on and be out there on the field. Just to feel the emotion and feel alive again in the stadium," Watt said. "It's huge to be able to tap a guy on the head after he makes a good play, get guys celebrating, bring some juice, being some spark. Some energy is all that I can ask for when it's time to play some football, and I'm excited about it."
I remember scouring social media when Watt went down with his injury in Cincinnati. The sky was falling, understandably so. A torn pectoral muscle usually signals the end of the season for a lot of players, and the look on his face as he said, "I tore my pec" while walking off the field didn't provide much optimism.
I asked Watt about that moment and if he thought he might actually return to the lineup by this point in the season -- just eight weeks later, and not on any "pitch count."
"Of course," he said.
Wow. This guy is just built different.
"T.J. is who he is," Tomlin said Tuesday. "It’s not mystical, the things that he’s able to do, and so I don’t know that any of us are surprised with what he’s capable of getting done."
The Steelers' second half of the schedule begins with the 3-6 Saints. Even though the Steelers are technically underdogs, the spread shifted from 2.5 points to 1.5 with the announcement of Watt's return.
The endeavor to try and turn this season around will be a tall task. The schedule is far more light with the Ravens and Bengals being the only teams currently over .500 over the final nine games. And, the Steelers sit three and a half games behind Baltimore in the division with two matchups on the docket.
The naysayers will naysay, but a miracle turnaround is possible. And, there's no denying it wouldn't be possible without Watt. It wouldn't even be a thought.
In a more realistic scenario, the road to a miracle turnaround won't be overcome. A 2-6 hole is, in all likelihood, too deep of a hole to climb out of, even if they somehow manage to reel off wins in seven of nine games and avoid a losing season.
But, in this league, you never know. And the Steelers can't do it all at once. Just get a win at home over a beatable opponent, then move onto the next week.
At the very least, even if they fail, it resets the establishment of a winning culture on the South Side.
"I view every week as a fresh start because your resume means very little, what you’ve done to this point means very little, the most significant opportunity is the one that awaits us all," Tomlin said. "Whether you’re 2-6 or 6-2, coming off of a bye week or coming off of a short week, the windshield component is the big picture for us as opposed to the rearview mirror."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Steelers (-1)vs. Saints
• What: Week 10, regular season
• When: Sunday, 1:02 p.m.
• Where: Acrisure Stadium
• Weather: Cloudy 39°, 8% chance rain, 13-mph wind
• TV: FOX (national), WPGH-TV (local)
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Streaming: Steelers Nation Radio
• Satellite: Sirius XM 385, online 826
• Boxscore: DKPS
• Team media guides: Steelers | Saints
• Official game notes: Steelers | Saints
THE INJURY REPORT
• Steelers: CB William Jackson III (back) and CB Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) did not practice all week and have been ruled out. OLB Malik Reed (personal reasons) and G Kevin Dotson (abdomen) are questionable. CB Levi Wallace (shoulder), LS Christian Kuntz (ribs), LB Myles Jack (knee), DT Larry Ogunjobi (knee), DT Cam Heyward (vet rest) and S Damontae Kazee (forearm) were all on the injury report this week, but have no injury designation and are cleared to play.
S Minkah Fitzpatrick had practiced all week and not been listed on any of the injury reports, but was ruled out Saturday afternoon due to appendicitis. The news came with the announcement of Saturday's roster moves, which included Watt being official activated from IR, S Elijah Riley being elevated from the practice squad and Jackson being placed on IR.
• Saints: RB Mark Ingram II (knee), CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), C Erik McCoy (calf), G Andrus Peat (tricep) and LB Pete Werner (ankle) have been ruled OUT. DE Marcus Davenport (calf), S Marcus Maye (abdomen), DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (illness), S P.J. Williams (illness) are QUESTIONABLE.
THE KEY VARIABLE
The offense will have to make adjustments without Chase Claypool. Fortunately, they've had the bye week to give some time to think of how they will move forward without their former second-round pick.
"As it pertains to the offense, we spent a lot of time talking about how we’re dividing the labor up and who we’re choosing to feature and what components to play and how much we’re choosing to feature people," Tomlin said Tuesday. "Obviously, when you go to a trade circumstance, like we did with Chase, that creates a real avenue to have some of those discussions in terms of the distribution of playmaking and who works what areas of the field, etcetera."
Pat Freiermuth has become a very reliable target for either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, and his volume of targets should only increase without Claypool in the slot.
However, Steven Sims has continued to impress in any role he's been given. He's gone from a guy who made the final cut out of training camp to becoming the primary option in the return game. Even before Claypool was traded, Sims had multiple targets and carries at Philadelphia.
Now, Tomlin and Matt Canada are calling on him to become the primary slot receiver.
"He’s been a guy that’s made some plays when given an opportunity and when available," Tomlin said. "He’s electric with the ball in his hands. He flipped the field on us a few weeks ago in the kick game. So, we’re excited about giving him a continued exposure to see if that continues."
Jaylen Warren has turned some heads on the South Side, and he's set himself up for a larger role in the offense -- even with him saying his reps in practice haven't increased. Either way, the Steelers will look to improve in the run game, which has been very unreliable this season.
The Saints boast a stingy defensive front led by Cam Jordan, and Tyrann Mathieu makes things difficult in the middle of the field in the passing game -- an area of the field the Steelers have struggled immensely with trying to exploit.
The adjustments the Steelers made during the bye week will need to pay dividends right away.
"We’re ready to get going with the second half of the year. We’ve got nine games to go. There’s a lot of things we want to do better," Canada said. "We’ve got to minimize some mistakes and execute at a higher level at those key times for those plays to occur. I say that a lot, the players have said it, we’ve sat in there and looked at it. There are plays that are there, opportunities to make them. We’re a little bit off here and there. We can talk about the rookie quarterback or reps in camp; nobody cares. We've got to find a way to score more points."
THE HISTORY LESSON
With the Steelers and Saints in opposite conferences, it's no surprise there isn't much history here. The two franchises have only met 16 total times, with only five of them since the NFL realigned in 2002. The Saints hold a slim 9-7 lead in the series history, though two of the Steelers' victories have been by 21-plus points.
The largest defeat by either side happened in the last matchup prior to the 2002 realignment on Oct. 17, 1993. The Steelers thrashed New Orleans, 37-14, at Three Rivers Stadium, winning their fourth straight game after an 0-2 start to the season. Pittsburgh finished their second year under Bill Cowher with a 9-7 record, ultimately losing to Joe Montana and the Chiefs in overtime in the Wild Card game.
Since 2002, the Saints have taken four of five games, with three of the four defeats coming by only three points. The lone victory during this stretch came on Nov. 12, 2006, when the Steelers won, 38-31. Ironically, Pittsburgh was also 2-6 heading into that matchup, and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns en route to the victory. But, the day belonged to Willie Parker, who racked up 213 yards on 22 carries with a pair of touchdowns.
The most recent matchup with the Saints came on Dec. 23, 2018 -- a matchup that still leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of Steelers fans to this day. The 2018 season started with a tie in Cleveland, and the Steelers ended up in a difficult circumstance because of it.
Pittsburgh entered the game with an 8-5-1 record, holding a half-game lead in the AFC North. However, a division title was the only way either team was going to make the playoffs. But, with only two games remaining, a pair of wins over the Saints on the road and a home matchup against the Bengals would lock up the division title.
The Steelers and Saints battled back and forth throughout the afternoon, but the game is most remembered for two pivotal plays. The first came late in the first quarter. The Steelers led, 3-0, and forced the Saints into a fourth-and-1 situation at the Pittsburgh 34-yard line. New Orleans opted to try and convert for a first down. Drew Brees heaved a pass to Alvin Kamara in the end zone, but Joe Haden knocked the pass away. However, the referees flagged Haden for a very controversial pass interference (ironically, the Saints were later robbed by an even worse call for a missed pass interference that inevitably ended their season in the NFC Championship Game).
The second play came in the final minute of play. The Steelers trailed, 31-28, and needed yet another fourth-quarter comeback to either win or force overtime. Roethlisberger drove the Steelers downfield, which included a critical completion to Antonio Brown to convert fourth and 15. The Steelers were just outside Chris Boswell's range and need to get a bit closer. Roethlisberger completed a pass over the middle to JuJu Smith-Schuster, who then turned upfield and tried to break a tackle, but fumbled the ball away. Pittsburgh had no timeouts and no way to stop the clock, and lost a game they desperately needed.
The defeat dropped the Steelers to 8-6-1 while the Ravens upended the 11-3 Chargers. While Pittsburgh was able to pull out a victory against the Bengals in the final week of the season, Baltimore secured the AFC North title with a victory over the Browns. Pittsburgh missed the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
Teryl Austin said it best this week.
"I think anytime you have a great player, and the other team has to provide resources to protect from that player, it opens up some things for somebody else. And that's really what happens when you add T.J. to the mix; he's going to open things up," Austin said. "Cam is not going to get the protection slid to him as much. Alex won't get it slid to him as much. So now, all of a sudden, they're going to be maybe in some more one-on-one-situations that maybe they haven't been in the last few weeks. And that's really what happens when you have that. I mean, it's the same way when we’re planning for a great player, you try to make sure that he's not wrecking the game for you. So, you provide resources to help people and that opens up some other people sometimes and that happens. But that's really what he does."
Watt will make a huge impact up front. But, on top of that, Damontae Kazee's return from injured reserve finally gives the Steelers the three-safety look they've wanted to deploy all along. And, that's what they planned for until Minkah Fitzpatrick was ruled out of Sunday's game with appendicitis.
"I just think this era of specialization, particularly defensive specialization to match offensive personnel groupings, is a big component," Tomlin said. "In three-safety defense or big nickel, as a lot of people refer to it, it’s one of the things that’s in vogue to combat two-tight end personnel groups, particularly when one of those tight ends is a vertical up-field type and a guy that’s wide receiver like. So, we explored that some and it was an asset to us, and it’s reasonable to expect us to continue in that vein."
With Watt back in the fold, the Steelers won't need to worry about bringing as many pass rushers to pressure the quarterback. This gives the secondary more versatility in how they want to scheme coverages. Ideally, Kazee, Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds can all play closer to the line of scrimmage, and all three have the ability to play deep. That gives cornerbacks more freedom to stick in man coverage, and all three are good tacklers in case they need to help in run support.
Kazee's return couldn't come at a better time. The Steelers will have to wait just a bit longer to deploy the three-safety look. But, having Kazee fill in for Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over the previous choices when the star safety was forced to miss time. And, Watt's return shouldn't overshadow that.
10 DATA POINTS
• The Steelers' opponents prior to the bye week have a combined record of 43-26. The opponents for the final nine games of the season have a combined 33-44-1 record.
• The Saints are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense, and the Steelers are allowing an average of 5.9 yards per play of defense.
• The return of Watt and Kazee comes a great time. The defense has a great opportunity to pounce on the Saints' minus-10 turnover differential -- the worst in the NFL.
• The Saints are 5-1 in their last six games against teams coming off their bye week. However, the Steelers have won five straight games coming off their bye, and are 11-4 under Tomlin after a bye.
• Andy Dalton has not had much success against the Steelers during his career. He's only 3-13 against Pittsburgh.
• Freiermuth is fourth in the NFL among tight ends in targets per route ran. However, the Saints are holding opposing tight ends to 4.9 yards per target -- the best mark in the league.
• The Saints are 19th in the NFL against the run, and they allowed the Ravens to rush for 188 yards Monday night. This might be a good opportunity for the Steelers to finally get the running game going.
• New Orleans is right in the middle of the pack with 22 sacks, but they do it sending five or more pass rushers only 14 percent of the time. That's tied for the lowest mark in the NFL.
• The Steelers are on pace for only 30 sacks this year. That would be the lowest total by a Pittsburgh defense since they recorded only 19 sacks in 1988.
• Kamara is known to be a dangerous running back, but Hill is leading the Saints with 8.6 yards per carry.
THE FANTASY CORNER
Regardless of my poor performance in my weekly DraftKings lineup, I absolutely terrorized in my league this past Sunday. Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne Jr., Justin Jefferson and the Patriots' defense highlighted a 186.12 performance (half-PPR). Nevertheless, here's my lineup for Week 10 (with a $50,000 salary cap on DraftKings):
• QB: Justin Fields, Bears ($6,500)
• RB1: Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars ($7,100)
• RB2: Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($6,500)
• WR1: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs ($6,000)
• WR2: Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($5,900)
• WR3: Jerry Jeudy, Broncos ($5,700)
• TE: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($4,200)
• FLEX: Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($5,200)
• DEF/ST: Steelers ($2,800)
Fields has been trending in the right direction, and I even put in a waiver claim for him for my first-place team in my league. I like his value at $6,500. Etienne has taken full advantage of becoming the feature back in Jacksonville, and Pollard is thriving with or without Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup. Smith-Schuster has emerged as Patrick Mahomes' primary wideout, Kirk has been very consistent all season and Jeudy is trending upward -- even in a scary situation in Denver.
Freiermuth has already been a decent fantasy producer, and he'll likely see more targets with Claypool now in Chicago. Going with a second tight end in the flex seems like a bold move, but Ertz has put up double-digit points in DraftKings' scoring system in all but one week this season. And I'm buying low on a Steelers' defense that will be welcoming Watt and Kazee back into the fold. They may not put up 26 points like they did against Cincinnati, but a solid performance isn't out of the question with Watt.
