UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- I have always avoided calling it a fluke. That word seems a bit harsh and disrespectful to the players who did all the hard work to pull it off.
There was luck involved, no doubt, in Penn State's program-changing and stunning win over Ohio State in 2016. For instance, on this famous kick-6 play:
A big part of the luck was bad coaching by Urban Meyer, who not only decided to try a long field goal, he also rushed the whole thing with the play clock winding down instead of using one of his two remaining timeouts.
Another part of the luck was that Big Ten rules at the time allowed for Marcus Allen to come from the second level and still jump to make the block. That rule was changed just a year later, so now the play Allen made would be flagged for a penalty.
There also was this play pictured below: A missed call by the refs on Ohio State's last possession -- a pass interference by Penn State's Jordan Smith on receiver James Clark that would have added 15 more yards and kept the Buckeyes' hopes alive. Who knows what would have happened if the PI had been called. Even LeBron James tweeted about it at the time:
That was pass interference man!!!
— LeBron James (@KingJames) October 23, 2016
Larry Brown Sports
Put everything together, and it wasn't really luck or a fluke that Penn State won that game. In all honesty, it was a miracle, given how many things fell perfectly into place for the Nittany Lions.
Which begs the question: Is that the only way Penn State can beat Ohio State?
Now look, that might be overstating things, but you get what I mean. The Lions have lost nine of the past 10 meetings against the Buckeyes, and the only game they won came thanks to the craziest play in the program's history.
It might be safe to say, then, that the only way Penn State will beat Ohio State on Saturday is if another miracle occurs. In some kind of form -- be it luck, a fluke or something else we can't really predict.
We have discussed all week the ways in which the Lions, who are 15.5-point underdogs, might be able to stay close in this game. But there's a gigantic difference between staying close and actually winning the game.
Ohio State is the better team. Has better players. Has a better head coach. Has a better quarterback. Has a better offense. Has a better defense. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 and could win the national title, while C.J. Stroud is the Heisman frontrunner.
How could Penn State possibly win this game?
Well, here are five ways:
1. Force 4-5 turnovers. Pretty simple, to say anyway. Manny Diaz's aggressive defense has been outstanding at taking the ball away this season, and this is the game where it needs to pay off.
2. Hope that Ohio State is vastly overrated and/or not ready for this game. The Buckeyes opened with a win over Notre Dame, which we thought was a big game, but the Fighting Irish aren't very good. Since then, Ohio State's wins have come over unranked teams Arkansas State, Toledo, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Michigan State and Iowa. None of those teams are very good, and the lone road game was against a terribly disappointing Sparty team.
3. Have Sean Clifford play out of his mind. What if Clifford throws for 425 yards with five TDs and no interceptions? Yeah, yeah, I know, the odds of that are minuscule. About the same odds, maybe, as blocking a field goal and returning it for a touchdown to win, right?
4. Maybe Nicholas Singleton breaks off three 50-yard touchdown runs and goes for 250 yards.
5. Or, maybe James Franklin coaches the game of his life, toying with Ryan Day and proving that he is an elite coach while getting Penn State closer to the elite level he promised four years ago.
The bottom line is, we can analyze this game until we're blue in the face. We can talk about individual matchups, such as the great one between cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and Buckeye receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and what might need to happen here or there.
But let's be honest here: The only way for Penn State to win is for something crazy to happen.
Just like 2016.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: No. 13 Penn State (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (7-0, 4-0)
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Beaver Stadium (106,572)
• Weather: Sunny, 52°, 0% chance of rain, 2 mph wind
• TV: FOX
• Radio: Penn State Sports Radio Network
• Satellite: Sirius XM 83, online 957
• Media notes: Penn State | Ohio State
THE NOON KICKOFF
This is an interesting element to the game that hasn't been discussed as much as I would have thought this week. The past five meetings at Beaver Stadium were in prime time.
Penn State's wins over Ohio State in 2005 and 2016 came in whiteout games, which offer a phenomenal atmosphere and fantastic home-field advantage. Let me ask each and every one of you fans who frequently attend games: Have you ever been part of a great atmosphere at Beaver Stadium during a noon game?
I mean, these games are usually reserved for the likes of Kent State, Buffalo or bad Big Ten opponents. And let's face it, it's tougher to get fully jacked up for a noon game.
"I want to start by encouraging and thanking the fans from last week for how they came out and supported," Franklin said of the Minnesota game. "I'd like to start by encouraging them to do the same thing this week. It's going to be important that we have a significant home-field advantage."
I see it as a pretty big disadvantage for Penn State that this game is at noon, as opposed to at night. If you want to believe anything Urban "Liar" Meyer says, take note of what he said two years ago about the whiteout: "In my mind, that is a 10-point differential when you play in that kind of game."
Penn State sure could use a 10-point boost here, but instead, the game will kick off at noon. That is basically like handing Ohio State a gift.
“Well, no matter when you go into Penn State it’s going to be a challenge," Day said this week. "They do a great job with the atmosphere, and there’s still a handful of guys that went (there) in 2018, but not all of them. So, we went in 2020, it was different, it was COVID. But we know whether it’s a night game, an afternoon game, noon game, it’s gonna be a challenge. Their crowd’s gonna be in it, and they’ll play a factor.”
CLIFFORD'S BIG OPPORTUNITY
The Penn State QB had a big game at Ohio State last year, completing 35 of 52 passes for 361 yards with one TD and one interception.
This is the kind of game, after all of his vast experience, where Clifford could perhaps rewrite his legacy at Penn State. He was booed prior to last week's game against Minnesota, but if he could lead the Lions to an upset victory over the No. 2 Buckeyes, just think about how differently he may be viewed going forward.
“Played a lot of football, and a lot of guys who play that much football, they have so many snaps under their belt, they’ve seen so many different things and that makes them dangerous in and of itself," Day said of Clifford's experience. "But he’s tough, he’s really good throwing the ball, he’s accurate, he’s made a lot of plays in his career with his feet and his arm. And so any time we play Penn State and certainly with Clifford, we know that they’re really good and they can attack you a bunch of different ways.”
TWO REASONS
Alrighty, let's get to some football nitty gritty, without the miracle stuff.
Two reasons Penn State could win:
1. The Lions have an outstanding secondary, and Ohio State is not Michigan, so the Buckeyes rely heavily on Stroud throwing the ball. All eyes will be on Porter vs. Harrison, but the Buckeyes have other outstanding receivers such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Emeka Egbuka. It's gonna be tough for the Lions to stick with all of those guys, but if they can and maybe pick off a couple of passes, then it could change things in a big way.
2. I just don't think Penn State is going to be able to run the ball in this one, so Clifford must have a big game. And that is possible, as long as Mike Yurcich can scheme well and call the right plays. All it took to jumpstart the offense last week was to get the tight ends more involved, and that absolutely needs to happen in this one. More screen passes to Singleton or Kaytron Allen also could be a big help. Regardless, Clifford has to be sharp with his throws, efficient and be able to pick up some yards on the ground, as well.
Two reasons Ohio State will win:
1. The Buckeyes just have so many weapons. We can talk about Stroud and all the receivers, but they also have a terrific offensive line and running game led by Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. Ohio State can win this game going away if either the passing game or the running game plays great, and if both play great, then this will be a blowout.
2. The Buckeyes have an excellent defense, which will make things very difficult for the Penn State offense. The Lions need to stay on the field, win time of possession and keep Stroud & Co. off the field. That's easier said than done. Look for the Buckeyes to force a bunch of three-and-outs and to eventually wear down Penn State's defense.
PREDICTION
Ohio State 31, Penn State 20
The Lions usually keep these games relatively close, and I can see them doing the same here.
HOW TO BET THE GAME
Ohio State is favored by 15.5. Over/under is 61.
Go with Penn State +15.5, or better yet, buy the number up to +17. That looks like a tremendous play, again, given that the Lions typically keep these matchups close.
