Here we go.
Kickoff for the 2022 regular season is hours away, and the buzz for the Backyard Brawl has returned after a decade-plus layoff.
The defending ACC champion Pitt Panthers have the cliche target on their backs, and will begin their season with two hot matchups before an ACC primer which includes a Group of Five school and a Football Championship Subdivision school.
The oddsmakers have the Panthers at an over/under win total of 8.5, which seems low considering a title defense is on the line and there's a good pathway for Pitt to get back to the ACC championship game.
In July, I voted on the preseason ACC poll which was distributed after ACC Kickoff in Charlotte. Not only did I vote Carter Warren, Haba Baldonado, Calijah Kancey, and Brandon Hill as preseason All-ACC picks, but I also tabbed the Panthers to repeat as Coastal Division champions over Miami and North Carolina and face Clemson in the ACC championship game.
I have my reasons.
Let's go through Pitt's schedule and make some more predictions:
■ Sept. 1: vs. West Virginia (Thurs.), 7 PM
Talk about a season opener. The 105th edition of the Backyard Brawl has been consistently building in hype throughout the Panthers locker room, and the tensions from these blood rivals will soon spill over once again at Acrisure Stadium.
For as emotional and as heated as this rivalry can get, I'd expect it to be a little cooler on the field than in years past. Pitt has teased all fall camp that they want to run the ball, and this is a great opportunity for the running backs to find some footing early. The Mountaineers will go with J.T. Daniels under center, making this a former-USC-QB vs. former-USC-QB matchup, which adds a whole layer to this already storyline-packed game. West Virginia could open up its passing game on Pitt's cornerbacks, but Erick Hallett II and Hill are sure to provide coverage in center field to prevent too many downfield chances.
Winner: Pitt.
■ Sept. 10: vs. Tennessee, 3:30 PM
Tennessee's defense is not great.
The Volunteers surrendered 29.1 points per game last season to rank 90th in Football Bowl Subdivision, and they surrendered 48 points in their bowl game to a Purdue offense which couldn't hold a candle to what Pitt's was last season.
If there was a time for Kedon Slovis to really establish himself as the face of Pitt's program, it could come against this pillow-soft secondary. Tennessee allowed 421.7 total yards per game last season, and that included a Southeastern Conference-worst 273.2 passing yards per game allowed.
This could be a shootout, as Tennessee presents an offense which ranked second in the SEC at scoring at 39.3 points per game, but Pitt's defense should be the difference here (as in most games they'll win) in deciding an outcome.
Winner: Pitt.
■ Sept. 17: at Western Michigan, 7:30 PM
Revenge game!?
Are you ready for some #MACtion!?
Now, this isn't the wacky, insane Tuesday night affair that we've all come to know and love that is the "real" #MACtion, but this game presents more stakes than it probably should for the Panthers.
For this game and the next, I won't get too heavy into X's and O's. Pitt is Pitt. Western Michigan is Western Michigan. Get to Kalamazoo, take care of business as usual, and get out healthy.
Winner: Pitt.
■ Sept. 24: vs. Rhode Island, TBA
The intrigue here is that Rhode Island is Pat Narduzzi's alma mater.
Winner: Pitt.
■ Oct. 1: vs. Georgia Tech, TBA
ACC play has arrived, and the Panthers should be 4-0 at this point. Georgia Tech doesn't present much of a threat to send the Panthers to 4-1, as the program in Year 5 of a five-year overhaul -- 22 of its last 29 losses since the start of 2018 have been by double digits -- and is still looking for answers under Geoff Collins.
Winner: Pitt.
■ Oct. 8: vs. Virginia Tech (homecoming), TBA
Folks seem to like -- check that, LOVE -- Virginia Tech as a darling in the ACC this season.
However, this Hokies program isn't the one that won the Coastal in 2016. Last season, they were mediocre against mediocre, going 3-5 against teams that finished with five, six, or seven wins. While Virginia Tech might be on the rise -- I'm reserving judgment until I see more from first-year head coach Brent Pry -- that's all they are. It's not their time yet.
Winner: Pitt
■ Oct. 22: at Louisville, TBA
This is the first game I'm putting Pitt on any sort of upset alert, even after coming off an idle week. This SCREAMS "trap game" to me with North Carolina coming up the next week.
Louisville has offensive firepower, led by dynamic quarterback Malik Cunningham. I was asked in my most recent Live Qs last week about a team's offense which could matchup against Pitt. Here's what I responded with:
At a glance, Louisville had the No. 8 offense in the ACC last season, but Malik Cunningham is electrifying and can make plays with his arm or his legs. With Pitt's secondary, I think Cunningham and the Cardinals can find ways to put some points up, especially in a home game for Louisville.
I still feel that way. However, that could change with some strong showings from the Pitt secondary over the weeks leading up. I do think SirVocea Dennis and Co. at linebacker can contain Cunningham and his ability to get out of the pocket, which would be enough to limit the offense.
Fun bullet point on Louisville: four of their seven losses last year were by six points or fewer.
Winner: Pitt
■ Oct. 29: at North Carolina, TBA
This is the toughest matchup Pitt has through Halloween. Josh Downs (101 catches, 1,335 yards, eight touchdowns in 2021) is a special, special college football wide receiver, and while Sam Howell is gone from the program, coach Mack Brown seems to have a good deal of confidence in new QB Drake Maye.
Three of their top four wide receivers are back, including Downs, and Maye has been touted for his play-making ability out of the pocket. Running back British Brooks is a strong bruiser at 5-11, 225 pounds, and is taking over the main role with the departure of leading rusher Ty Chandler.
The defense has talent, and is looking to improve on its showing of allowing 32.1 points per game last season. By this point in the season, any kinks should be worked out, and this could be the Pitt offense's first test since the Backyard Brawl. I'm closer to 50/50 on this one than most might anticipate, especially with this being a road game in Chapel Hill.
Winner: North Carolina
■ Nov. 5: vs. Syracuse, TBA
Regardless of outcome at North Carolina, the matchup against the Orange is way, way more favorable for Pitt. Sean Tucker (who keeps one of the greatest in-season tweet threads I've ever seen) is one of the best running backs in all of college football and is undoubtedly going to have to be contained for Pitt to win.
Even then, if Tucker has a typical game, I don't trust Syacuse's defense much outside of cornerbacks Garrett Williams and Duce Chestnut and linebacker Mikel Jones to make enough plays to hold off Pitt's offense.
Winner: Pitt
■ Nov. 12: at Virginia, TBA
Another team with a lot of steam, especially given the hire of former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott as the Cavaliers' new head coach.
Brennan Armstrong led the ACC in passing (yes, even over Kenny Pickett) with 4,449 total yards, and he turned in a 31:10 TD-to-INT ratio. He completed 65.2% of his passes, which was good for fourth in the ACC and was a better clip than Armstrong, Howell, and Miami's Tyler Van Dyke.
But, Virginia has to play defense, as well. Virginia allowed 31.8 points per game last season and was ranked 121st in FBS with 466.0 yards allowed per game. The difference between what I said above about North Carolina and what I'll say about Virginia is that I believe North Carolina has the talent to make up for woes, and Virginia doesn't.
Winner: Pitt
■ Nov. 19: vs. Duke, TBA
Mike Elko was hired to fix Duke's defensive disaster, after it surrendered 517.1 yards per game (!) and 39.8 points per game last season. This is the ultimate "tune-up" opportunity for Pitt ahead of the battle ahead against Miami.
Winner: Pitt
■ Nov. 26: at Miami, TBA
This matchup has me salivating more than the turkey dinner I'll have on Thanksgiving Day in leading up to the regular season finale.
At this point in the season, I have Miami at three losses in the ACC against North Carolina, at Virginia, and at Clemson, which would mean Pitt would have already locked up the Coastal Division.
However, this could NOT be the case, and this game could have implications on the division champion, which would dominate the headlines across the nation on who will oppose (likely Clemson) in the ACC championship game.
Mario Cristobal is everyone's favorite coaching hire, and the national media has treated Miami as such by picking them as the preseason Coastal champion.
But, a coaching hire doesn't automatically make the Hurricanes the ACC favorite after going 7-5 overall and 5-3 in the ACC last season. Miami lost to Virginia and North Carolina, and had a woeful first half in a loss to Florida State last season. Does coaching make all the difference in all of that from last season?
As far as the matchup goes, Pitt's usually dominant defensive line could have its way with the Hurricanes, and the Panthers offense shouldn't have issue with putting up points. This could be, as the great Lee Corso would say, closer than the experts think.
However, if my hypothesis on where the standings should lie is true, then this game will be more about Pitt getting in and out of Miami Gardens, Fla., healthy in preparation for the ACC Championship. Is that the sexy headline? No. But is it the headline Pitt would gladly take?Absolutely.
Winner: Miami
So, there you have it. I have Pitt at 10-2 and 6-2 in the ACC, which I believe can be enough to get back to the ACC championship game as Coastal champion. What do you think? Leave your predictions in the comments, and let's have a friendly discussion.