North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Which pitches should Pirates throw?

In the most recent Podcast To Be Named Later, I got to geek out about pitching with Max Kranick. In our discussion about the takeaways he had from last year, he brought up that he would like to throw his changeup more in 2022. Kranick is not going to be the only pitcher who makes that their new season resolution. It’s a pretty common one for pitchers, and while some are able to follow through, many revert back to a pitch mix that’s more familiar to them.

That conversation inspired this Mound Visit and what pitches on the Pirates staff are maybe being underutilized. That doesn’t mean overthrowing one particular pitch because hitters had a low batting average against it. There is such a thing as diminishing returns.  But maybe a pitch has some encouraging peripherals that are worth exploring, or that maybe it could take the place of a pitch that isn’t playing as well.

So who could use a pitch mix shakeup?

SINKER: WIL CROWE

Even though he led the Pirates in starts last year with 25, I wouldn’t count on him being in the opening day rotation. Ben Cherington said he would like to target more starting pitching whenever the lockout ends. Even if the Pirates don’t bring in anyone else, they have internal options. José Quintana signed to be a starter. Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson are two former top 100 prospects in a pivotal year of their careers, so they need looks in the rotation (more on them layer). The Pirates gave up Jacob Stallings to acquire Zach Thompson, who they believe is a major-league starter. He needs reps in that role. Between them and a collection of other starters – like JT Brubaker, Kranick, Miguel Yajure, Dillon Peters and Roansy Contreras – Crowe looks like a reliever to start next year.

If he does go to the bullpen, a new role is a perfect opportunity to reevaluate his pitch mix and usage. He has a good changeup and throws it a decent amount of the time (18.1%). The actual results were ok (.261 batting average, .457 slugging, .336 wOBA), but the expected stats were better (.245 xBA, .417 xSLG, .317 xwOBA). Overall, Baseball Savant said his changeup was four runs better than average.

So why isn’t the changeup the pitch that Crowe should emphasize more? Because I think it would do better playing off his sinker than the four-seamer.

A shift away from the four-seamer would probably be beneficial for Crowe anyway. Going by Baseball Savant’s run value, his four-seamer was 16 runs below average, the fifth-worst total for any pitch in baseball. The sinker wasn’t great, but allowing 0.3 more runs than average per 100 sinkers thrown (RV/100) is immensely better than the 2.1 RV/100 his four-seamer had.

In fact, the change started happening last season, with Crowe changing his fastball mix around mid-August.

It didn’t translate to better overall results down the stretch, but he had two of his best starts of the season down the stretch. The changeup also has a similar spin direction to his sinker with similar downward movement. Changing his fastball usage could not only get rid of a weakness, but emphasize a strength.

The Pirates try to identify what a player’s “unicorn” is and work to make it the best it can be. If Crowe’s changeup is his unicorn, he needs a fastball to play off of it. Of the two, the sinker looks like the better option for him.

CURVEBALL: BRYSE WILSON

Instead of just referencing Wilson, let’s take a dive into what’s going to be a pivotal season for him.

A few years ago, Wilson was a top 100 prospect, with evaluators thinking his stuff will take one more step since he was only 21 and pitching in the upper levels. So far, it hasn’t, which is why the Braves were willing to flip him at the trade deadline for Richard Rodríguez.

Out of all the pitchers on the Pirates’ staff, Wilson would probably benefit the most from a serious pitch mix overhaul. For someone who throws in the low 90s and doesn’t get a ton of spin, he is extremely fastball reliant. He threw his fastball 42.7% of the time and his sinker 19.9%. Nearly two-thirds of his pitches were fastballs, while he threw his curveball for 11.5% of his pitches.

In his last prospect evaluation from FanGraphs, his curveball was his highest graded pitch and the only one to get a "plus" 55 grade. His .267 xwOBA on the pitch was 70 points lower than any of his other offerings. His spin direction mirrors his fastball, so while he doesn’t get a ton of spin, it can lead to tunneling:

All of those are good signs and what you look for in a potentially good major-league curveball. Despite all of that, he’s a fastball-first guy in the majors. He can move those fastballs around the zone, which is a positive, but it just doesn’t have the zip to be the type of pitch he can lean on for 60-seomthing percent.

Last year, Wilson ranked in the bottom 5% in whiffs and strikeout rate. It’s an incredibly small sample size, but in the two games with the Pirates where Wilson threw his curveball the most – August 8 and Sept. 6 – he put up two quality starts with 11 strikeouts over 12 innings. We probably shouldn’t put too much into that, and those days Wilson said the increased curveball usage was just part of the scouting report, but he needs a way to miss bats when his back is against the wall.

Some more breaking stuff could go a long way for him. Last year, he threw his slider just 5% of the time too.

SLIDER: MITCH KELLER

Keller is the rotation’s wild card this upcoming season. It would be a huge boost for the unit if he is able to cement himself as a permanent member of that starting five. Of course, we said the same thing last year, but the point remains the same. A rebuild goes a lot smoother with Keller becoming a key contributor.

I’ve already written a blurb on Keller in an earlier Mound Visit this winter, focusing on his decrease in fastball velocity last season and some ramped up, looser arm movement in his final start of the season. It looks like he’s built on those mechanical tweaks this offseason, and there’s plenty of video of him throwing at his offseason facility with extra heat on his fastball:

Of course hitting 98 mph in a facility is not the same as hitting 98 mph in a game, but for someone who never reached that velocity last season, that’s a good sign.

An improved fastball would be huge for Keller. How should he complement it? We’ve seen him shift away from his curveball in favor of his slider (which is slowly trending to being more of a cutter). Looking at the results, it’s easy to see why. Something happened to that curve, going from a .133 batting average and .179 wOBA in 2019 to a .452 average and .457 wOBA in 2021.

Keller is going to need both of his breaking pitches because the changeup is only a show me pitch. Until that curveball gets back to his rookie form, the slider could be the pitch to lean on. It gets good vertical movement, averaging about an inch and a half more drop than the league’s average slider. If that extra velocity Keller found in the training facility translates into games, then his slider-cutter would play up because of the increased velocity separation between the two pitches.

The fastball is going to be the bedrock for Keller, but the breaking pitches will ultimately make or break his 2022 season. He threw his slider a good amount in 2021, 24% of the time, but he could probably increase that a bit more, at least until the curveball clicks again.