ALTOONA, Pa. -- The two best teams -- by far -- in the country will play for the national title Monday night when SEC powers Alabama and Georgia battle for a second time this season in the College Football Playoff championship game.
This year, the CFP selection committee got it right in the end. The four teams that deserved to be in the playoff made it. Then the lesser two -- Michigan and Cincinnati -- got destroyed, making for some pretty boring national semifinals. Alabama breezed past Cincy, 27-6, and Georgia clobbered Michigan, 34-11.
Somewhat surprisingly, Georgia is favored by 3 points over Alabama, despite the Tide pounding the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game a month ago, 41-24.
There is a ton of talk about expanding the playoff, despite the fact that this season proved that's not really necessary. Not, that is, if the goal is to actually find the best team.
But here's the thing: Finding the best team really is NOT the reason for expanding the playoff. It never has been.
If you truly want to find the best team, a very strong case can be made that, in most years, a playoff really should only include two teams. More often than not, the old BCS system -- which everyone seemed to hate -- actually did see the two teams that were most deserving get picked for the championship game.
OK, so two was never enough for anybody's liking, so the CFP came along in 2014 and expanded the playoff to four. Here are the the teams that have won the title during the CFP era, plus what they were seeded and who they beat in the championship game:
2014: 4 Ohio State (beat 2 Oregon)
2015: 2 Alabama (beat 1 Clemson)
2016: 2 Clemson (beat 1 Alabama)
2017: 4 Alabama (beat 3 Georgia)
2018: 2 Clemson (beat 1 Alabama)
2019: 1 LSU (beat 3 Clemson)
2020: 1 Alabama (beat 3 Ohio State)
As you can see, there have been a couple of instances where the No. 4 seed won the title. That's actually been good for college football, because it shows that in some years it would be possible for there to be more than just one or two great teams followed by a divide between everyone else.
That's just not the case this season, however, with it being Alabama and Georgia and then ... a big drop to everyone else.
Still, talk of expanding the College Football Playoff remains, and I'm sure we'll hear a whole lot about it this offseason -- even after a year in which the current system absolutely got things right.
Because again, the goal of those who want an expanded playoff is NOT to find the best team.
Let's not kid ourselves. The goal is to make more money. And you do that by keeping more fans interested by having more teams playing in more playoff games. All of those extra games will provide TV networks with more inventory, so that they can make more money, which in turn will filter even larger sums down to the teams and conferences.
That's why the College Football Playoff absolutely will expand in the coming years. I have no doubt about it. There just will be too much money at stake, plus everyone has fallen in love with the idea that having more teams in the field is a good thing.
I do NOT love that idea. I have always believed that college football has the greatest and most meaningful regular season in all of sports, and I don't want it to be watered down by having a playoff so large that a bunch of two and even three-loss teams can get in.
Nevertheless, nobody wants to hear that argument, and I have resigned myself to the fact that the playoff will indeed grow.
But by how much?
Let's take a look at the possibilities.
SIX TEAMS
This is my preference, if in fact an expansion is inevitable.
There are three major pros for going to six:
1. It would protect the integrity of the regular season, meaning it still would be very difficult to make the top six and would require an outstanding record.
2. If the five power conferences wanted to make sure their champion gets an automatic bid, this would cover that. Then there would be one at-large bid, which could conceivably go to a Group of 5 team, if one was worthy. Now, for the record, I am totally against having automatic qualifiers from the Power 5 leagues. Because there will be some years when a given conference simply does not have a team good enough to make it, and they shouldn't be gifted a spot if, for instance, their champion has 2-3 losses and is down in the rankings.
3. Here's a big factor for me in this scenario: The top two teams would get one bye. That's only fair if, like this year, you have two teams that clearly have separated themselves like Alabama and Georgia. Why should they have to play an extra game -- which probably would be a blowout -- and risk getting a key player injured? Give those teams a bye, then you'd get down to a final four.
Alas, I have seen ZERO push for this scenario, so I'll admit I'm dreaming here. Going to six simply would not add enough TV inventory that would generate millions of dollars more, therefore it just ain't happening.
EIGHT TEAMS
It bothers me that so many people have just ignored this possibility and jumped straight to the 12-team bandwagon.
Eight is probably the best number, all things considered. Here's what you'd get:
1. A total of seven playoff games, more than double the current number of three. That's a hell of a lot more money that could be made by everybody with four additional games each year.
2. The regular season still would matter, for the most part. It's extremely difficult to make the top four, with Power 5 teams really being able to lose no more than one game. When you go to eight, two losses would not eliminate most teams. This year, for instance, No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Baylor and No. 8 Ole Miss all had two losses and still would have made an eight-team field. Most years, you'd expect at least a couple of two-loss teams to make the final eight. In 2020, Florida was No. 7 and had three losses, which to me is a big problem.
I just hate the thought of a three-loss team getting into a playoff. But it will happen, because ...
12-TEAM FIELD SEEMS INEVITABLE
Why? Just think of it this way. Take it away, Mel Brooks!
That "Spaceballs" clip never gets old.
In this case, the merchandising is the previously mentioned inventory. That's the fancy way of saying more games on TV, which the networks will salivate over because they can sell more ads and make a crapload more money. A 12-team playoff -- assuming the first four seeds get a bye -- would mean 11 total games. This story from last summer valued a 12-team field at $1 billion per year, up from the current $600 million with four teams.
To hell with the regular season. You'll have multiple three-loss teams get into a 12-team playoff in a lot of years. And certainly 4-5 teams with two losses will get in.
That's where we're headed, though. TV networks want it, conferences seem to want it, ADs seem to want it, and coaches definitely want it.
Take, for instance, James Franklin. He hasn't yet reached a College Football Playoff in a four-team field. But if it had been 12, Penn State would have made it each year from 2016-19, as the Nittany Lions were in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings. Think about all the leverage coaches could gain by saying they've made it to a playoff, and they all want that possibility.
There's also this notion that an expanded playoff will somehow "save the bowls!" That seems to be a rallying cry, since the first couple of rounds would take the place of traditional bowl games and make them more meaningful.
I guess. Yeah, those handful of bowl games would be more important. But the other 87 bowl games each year -- or whatever ridiculous number they wind up having -- will still be essentially meaningless.
We probably will see another strong push for a 12-team playoff this offseason, then it appears the 2024 season will be the first time it could be implemented under current TV contracts and scenarios.
16 TEAMS
No no no no no no no no no no!!!!!!
Absolutely not.
I cannot tell you how much I would hate this possibility. You'd have some freaking four-loss teams in a playoff, which in my opinion would ruin the whole damn sport.
NEVER!
PODCAST: It's already been a busy offseason for Penn State. We take a look at all that's happened so far, what will be coming up soon and discuss some Nittany Lion basketball, as well.
