KANSAS CITY, MO -- One thing you can say about the Steelers in 2021, they certainly know how to hang around.
Part of the reason for that is the overall mess that is the AFC playoff race, but after Week 15's events, the Steelers' lone path to the postseason is now likely the one goal they set out to accomplish at the start of the season anyway -- win the AFC North.
Though the Steelers won last week, beating the Titans, 19-13, at Heinz Field, they only improved their lot in the AFC hierarchy by two spots, moving from 11th in the AFC standings to ninth.
But the AFC North? Well, that got a whole lot more interesting with the Steelers' win coupled with losses by the Ravens and Browns and a win by the Bengals.
Cincinnati now sits in first place at 8-6, leading the division based on tiebreakers. But they host the Ravens (8-6) at Paul Brown Stadium. The Browns, meanwhile, fell to 7-7 with their loss. The Steelers sit at 7-6-1, a half-game behind the leaders, but only a half-game out of last place, as well.
"The whole AFC feels like it's kind of a jumbled mess at times," said Ben Roethlisberger. "I think our division could be argued as one of the toughest in the NFL. We’re constantly beating each other up and playing some -- you know our competition that we're playing this year. Obviously, we had the No. 1 (hardest) schedule. I'm not sure what the other guys had but it's not easy out there."
It won't get any easier this week as the Steelers travel to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Chiefs.
Kansas City (10-4) owes the Steelers a debt of gratitude. The Steelers' win over the Titans last week kept Tennessee from taking over the No. 1 spot in the AFC playoff field, giving it to the Chiefs, instead.
Perhaps the Chiefs may unwittingly and certainly against their will could repay that favor this week, largely because of COVID-19 issues. Kansas City has been beset by players going on the Reserve/COVID-19 List over the past week and a half, with a number of starters, including All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce going on the list earlier this week. Hill was activated Saturday, while the Chiefs hold out hope for Kelce.
The Chiefs also could be missing the entire right side of their offensive line as guard Kyle Long and tackle Lucas Niang also were placed on the list.
“We’ve gone through this for two years now, so anything is possible, and we get it," said Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. "The next guy has got to be ready to go. They’ve given us opportunities to replace people with the number of practice squad and elevations. So, we just go next man up and roll and hope those guys get better. It’s the same way on the other side with the fellas, they’ve got to stay prepared too.
"They don’t know when they’ll test back in, so they’ve got to be ready to go that way too. It’s a crazy thing that’s in motion, fluid as you’d say, so we’ve just got to hang with it and make sure everybody prepares themselves and is ready to play.”
To Reid's point, not only are the Chiefs dealing with having some key members on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, the Steelers have to prepare as if they will face not just Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but with his full complement of weapons and offensive line, as well.
The adjustment then comes Saturday if any or all of those players are ruled out.
"We've got to take care of the ball. We've got to score points," Mike Tomlin said. "The 19 points that we scored last week, I don't think it's realistic to think that that's going to be enough to get out of the stadium with a victory this time around, particularly just given their recent outputs and what's transpired with them this year. I think they've lost four games. I think three of those four games that they lost, the opponent has scored more than 30 points. That's a blueprint, if you will, of a traditional way of winning the game."
Can the Steelers do that? Well, they've scored 30 points just once, that coming in a 41-37 loss to the Chargers last month. Slow starts have been an issue.
And with a young offensive line playing at Arrowhead Stadium -- one of the loudest venues in the league -- and a Kansas City defense that has allowed 13.3 points per game during its current seven-game winning streak, things won't get any easier.
"They're the best team we've seen this year," Keith Butler said.
Add the COVID-19 issues into the equation -- the Steelers are missing some players of their own in offensive tackle Zach Banner, linebackers Devin Bush and Marcus Allen, running back Anthony McFarland and defensive tackle Isaiah Buggs -- and this game is a great unknown.
But, as this season has shown, you have to continue to stay light on your feet.
"This year, we just got to keep fighting," Roethlisberger said. "We don't know, we can't control it. So, we just have to be ready for anything."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Steelers (7-6-1) vs. Chiefs (10-4)
• When: 4:25 p.m., Sunday
• Where: Arrowhead Stadium
• Forecast: 62°, 22% chance rain, 12-mph wind
• TV: KDKA, CBS (national)
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Streaming: Steelers Nation Radio
• Satellite: Sirius XM 382, online 826
• Media notes: Steelers | Chiefs
THE INJURY REPORT
Steelers: LB Buddy Johnson (foot, out), DE Chris Wormley (groin, out), TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion, out)
Chiefs: No Injuries
THE COVID LIST
Steelers: LB Devin Bush, LB Marcus Allen, OT Zach Banner, RB Anthony McFarland, DT Isaiah Buggs
Chiefs: OT Mike Remmers, LB Nick Bolton, DB Rashad Fenton, G Kyle Long, OT Lucas Niang, DB Armani Watts, PK Harrison Butker, TE Travis Kelce, WR Greg Dieter, P Tommy Townsend
THE KEY VARIABLE
Can the Steelers score enough points to compete with the Chiefs? At times this season, they've shown an ability to score points -- largely in the second half. At other times, the offense has been more limited.
With rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth sidelined because of a concussion suffered last week against the Titans -- his second in a month -- the Steelers will be missing their second-best scoring option. Freiermuth's seven touchdowns are second on the team to fellow rookie Najee Harris, who has nine total scores.
It also could allow the Chiefs to focus more on taking Diontae Johnson out of the game.
Johnson has been Roethlisberger's favorite receiver this season by far. His 135 targets this season are 50 more than the next closest Steelers player, Chase Claypool with 83. But the Titans made sure to shade the safety over the top of Johnson last week, limiting Johnson to just five targets.
He finished the game with five receptions for 38 yards and also gained 10 yards on an end around, but the Steelers can't allow their No. 1 receiver to be taken out of the game so easily.
"(They were) doing some extra stuff, 22-man stuff, putting two people on him," Roethlisberger said of Johnson. "Even if they weren't necessarily doubling him, it's like, guys kind of lean in or looking. There were times that he was open that I missed him, and you hate that because you don't get those opportunities too often. And so that's on me to take advantage of a really good football player when he gets those one-on-ones or you know, beats a guy."
The Steelers also need more out of their other receivers. Claypool has been rotating possessions with James Washington the past two games. Washington had three catches on five targets last week for 36 yards. Claypool and Ray-Ray McCloud combined for one catch for 12 yards on five targets.
That has to improve for the Steelers to have a chance to win this game.
So, too, does the rushing attack.
The Titans limited the Steelers to 35 yards on 17 carries last week, their lowest rushing output of the season. Harris had just 18 yards on 12 carries.
The Steelers know they have to stick with the running game against the Chiefs.
"With a team like this, you say ‘okay, if you possess the ball that helps’, but they can score really fast and do some amazing things," Roethlisberger said. "We just have to be smart and play our game and that's going to be the key no matter what's happened."
Kansas City allows 115.6 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry, the second-highest per carry average in the league behind the Steelers. The Steelers can't allow their running game to get gummed up as it was a week ago.
The Steelers aren't going to blow the Chiefs out. They don't blow anyone out. But they're 7-1-1 in games decided by eight or fewer points.
But that's a skill, as well.
"They're the best in the business at it. Our guys respect that," said Reid of the Steelers. "They won more close games than anybody in the National Football League right now. We respect that. On tape they play hard, they are aggressive, well coached. Both sides of the ball, special teams. We understand the challenge there."
THE HISTORY LESSON
The Steelers in 1999 weren't a good football team. That had been proven time and again during a tumultuous season that saw them pull into Arrowhead Stadium Dec. 21, 1999 at 5-8 after a 5-3 start.
Kordell Stewart had been sacked four times, intercepted another and generally played poorly. Bill Cowher had seen enough and benched Stewart for the final five games of the season, relegating him to the wide receiver meeting room in favor of going with Mike Tomczak.
Tomczak didn't fare much better and it was the veteran quarterback who led the Steelers into Arrowhead Stadium to try to snap what had become a five-game losing streak.
Tomczak got the Steelers off to a good start, throwing a 12-yard touchdown pass to Troy Edwards on the opening possession, but the Chiefs answered immediately, as Elvis Grbac threw a 15-yard TD to Tony Gonzalez to tie the score.
The Steelers regained the lead at 10-7 on a Kris Brown field goal on their next possession, but things turned south from there.
Brown had a 49-yard field goal attempt blocked, then, after the defense held, Tomczak was intercepted and Donnie Edwards returned it 28 yards for a touchdown and a 14-10 lead for Kansas City.
Grbac then threw a second TD to Gonzalez, this one from 2 yards out to give the Chiefs a 21-10 lead before Tomczak moved the Steelers into field goal range just before the half ended and they trimmed the lead to 21-13.
The score stayed there throughout most of the third quarter as the teams traded punts until Derrick Alexander went 82 yards on an end around to push Kansas City's lead to 28-13 with just over three minutes remaining in the third quarter.
Tomczak was then intercepted on the opening play of the fourth quarter by Edwards and again on Pittsburgh's next possession by Eric Warfield.
Former Steelers running back Bam Morris added insult to injury at the two-minute warning, plunging into the end zone from 10 yards out to make it 35-13 before Tomczak tossed a touchdown pass to Bobby Shaw with 40 seconds remaining and the Steelers failed on a 2-point conversion to make it 35-19.
Tomczak was 23 of 46 for 278 yards and two touchdowns, but was intercepted four times. Jerome Bettis rushed for 63 yards and Richard Huntley 37. Edwards led the Steelers with five receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown, but had a couple of drops on his 11 targets, and bristled in the locker room when asked about them.
"I didn't drop (expletive)," Edwards said when asked about it.
The Chiefs had 218 yards rushing, bolstered by Alexander's 82-yard run. But Morris hurt his former team by posting 71 yards on 17 carries, while Tony Richardson added 57 more yards on the ground. Gonzalez had 6 catches for 93 yards.
The loss was the sixth-straight for the Steelers, the longest losing streak for a Cowher-coached team. They would win the following week against the Panthers to break the string, but were blown out by the Titans in the final week of the season to finish 6-10 and a second-consecutive season outside of the playoffs.
GETTY
T.J. Watt pressures the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes during their only other meeting in Week 2 of the 2018 season.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
The 2018 NFL MVP, Mahomes has only faced the Steelers once in his career. And that came in his second start of his first season after taking over for Alex Smith.
Nobody knew just how deadly Mahomes could be at that point, but he gave the Steelers an up-close look in a 42-37 shootout win at Heinz Field, throwing for 326 yards and six touchdowns.
Kelce and Hill were big parts of the offense that day, as Kelce caught 7 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns, while Hill had 5 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown. Sammy Watkins added 6 receptions for 100 yards and a score.
Mahomes might give up a lot to have Watkins available right about now.
Hill has 102 receptions for 1,178 yards and nine touchdowns this season, while Kelce is at 85 for 1,062 yards and seven touchdowns. With neither available this week, Mahomes' receiving corps now becomes Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson. They have combined for 103 catches for 1,105 yards, but just six touchdown catches.
Exactly half of Mahomes pass attempts this season have gone to that duo, and they have scored half of Kansas City's receiving touchdowns, while account for 54 percent of the team's receiving yards and 48.9 percent of the team's catches.
"We have other guys that will step up and take on those roles," Mahomes said. "In part, a receiver here, a receiver there, running backs, tight ends and we’ll find a way to make up for the production that we’re missing.”
Even though the Steelers haven't played Mahomes in a while, they have played a bevy of talented quarterbacks since last seeing him over three years ago. They face the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP, twice per season and have done a good job defending him.
And they plan to take a page out of their defensive scheme against Jackson, a feared runner, to try to defend Mahomes. The difference is that when Jackson breaks the pocket, he's doing so primarily to run. Mahomes gets out of the pocket looking to pass.
"We just have to make sure that we contain him in the backfield," safety Terrell Edmunds said. "And then from there, just make sure we plaster and stay on your man because he can make those throws all over the field. He's the type that can run. And when he thinks that you're sleeping, he'll throw it right over your head."
The Steelers feel Mahomes is more dangerous when rolling to his right. But they also know he has the arm strength to make throws rolling left, as well. In fact, they feel he's at his most dangerous when he gets out of the pocket.
"There's not an angle on the field he can't throw, and he can make you pay different volumes," said Heyward. "We don't say enough about the skill pieces he does have, but the mobility, the arm strength, accuracy. He's the all-league quarterback that can do it all."
But he's shown some flaws this season. Mahomes has already thrown a career-high 13 interceptions this season. And it's been the less-familiar opponents that have hurt him.
Mahomes has 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions in five games against AFC West opponents this season and has averaged 303.6 yards per game in those contests.
He has 17 touchdown passes and nine interceptions in nine games against non-AFC West opponents and averaged 281.6 yards passing per game.
The Steelers obviously fall into that latter category. And after a slow start with turnovers, they've forced six in their past two games. If they can keep that turnover train rolling, they'll have a chance to win this game.
If not, well, it's going to be tough, even if the Chiefs are at less than full strength.
"It's a combination of everybody just doing their job," said safety Minkah Fitzpatrick of the turnovers. "Doing the little things that we practice throughout the week, like punching out the ball, like reaching when you're rushing at the quarterback, putting pressure on the quarterback, all the things that we worked on throughout the week coming to fruition."
THE TEN DATA POINTS
• The Chiefs lead the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 52.7 percent. The Steelers allow a 38.9 conversion rate, 13th-best in the NFL.
• Despite its explosive offense, the Chiefs are just 17th in red zone offense, scoring touchdowns at a 59.3 percent clip. The Steelers allow a touchdown just 49 percent of the time in the red zone, fourth-best in the NFL.
• The Chiefs have turned the ball over 13 times in their four losses this season. They have 25 total turnovers, second-most in the NFL. The Steelers have forced six turnovers in their past two games.
• The Steelers average 6.9 yards per offensive touch -- rushes plus completions. The Chiefs average 7.9 yards per offensive touch.
• Fitzpatrick has 102 tackles, while Joe Schobert has 98. They can become the first Steelers duo since Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Clark in 2013 to both record 100 tackles in the same season.
• Chris Jones leads the Chiefs with seven sacks despite appearing in just 11 games. The Chiefs have 24 sacks as a team. They have allowed 25. The Steelers are second in the NFL with 41 sacks, three behind the Vikings.
• Harris' 62 receptions are tied with Chase Claypool for the most by a rookie in Steelers history.
• Kelce has 540 receiving yards after the catch this season. That's more yards after the catch than all but nine tight ends have in total receiving yards this season. He has 1,066 receiving yards overall, meaning more than half of his yards have come after the catch. More than half (55.6 percent) of Kansas City's passing yards come after the catch.
• Watt's .91 sacks per game are the most in NFL history for players with at least 70 games played.
• The Chiefs allow just 4.1 yards per punt return this season. They average 11.5 yards per punt return.
THE FANTASY CORNER
I finished in the money again for a fourth-straight week with 133.00 points, which was a good week for last week's low-scoring games. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Christian Kirk were my biggest hits. We'll go for a fifth-consecutive week in the money this week. Remember, I'm building a fantasy lineup using Draft Kings and a $50,000 salary cap.
Quarterback: Joe Burrow, Bengals ($5,600) -- The Ravens pass defense is a unit you want to play against, even though the Bengals haven't thrown the ball much lately.
Running back: David Montgomery, Bears ($5,700), James Robinson, Jaguars ($5,900) -- I'm going with the same starting duo in the backfield I had last week. Both were solid, if unspectacular. But both have great matchups again this week, Montgomery against the Seahawks, Robinson against the Jets.
Wide receiver: Diontae Johnson, Steelers ($7,500), JaMarr Chase, Bengals, ($7,100), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions, ($5,600) -- After a slow week, Johnson should find more success against the Chiefs. Chase could feast against the Ravens secondary and stacks with Burrow. St. Brown is an absolute bargain at $5,600, which makes him chalky, but I'll go with the chalk.
Tight end: Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($5,100) -- Goedert is a huge part of the Eagles passing game, which makes him a bargain at $5,100.
Flex: Justin Jackson, Chargers ($4,200) -- With Austin Ekelar going on the COVID-19 List late in the week, Jackson is in line to get 15 to 20 touches against the Texans. Yes, please.
Defense: Dolphins ($3,000) -- I'll take the Dolphins for $3,000 in what should be a low-scoring affair, especially with Ian Book making his first career start at QB for the Saints.
