ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State has six wins and three losses, but how many times have the Nittany Lions actually been beaten this season?
If that seems like a strange question heading into Saturday's huge showdown against Michigan, then follow along.
Penn State was pounding Iowa, up 17-3, when quarterback Sean Clifford was knocked out of the game early in the second quarter. The Lions wound up losing, 23-20.
Still, don't you think it's reasonable that the Penn State players actually believe they're better than Iowa and would have won that game rather easily with Clifford?
Yes, Penn State lost the game. But do you think the players themselves actually believe they were beaten by the Hawkeyes? Or do they feel they were beaten by the circumstances?
OK, so now let's move on to Illinois. Clifford was a shell of himself in that game, unable to move very well or throw the deep ball. He was probably about 60-70 percent max, and who knows, maybe even less than that.
The Lions lost the notorious game in nine overtimes, 20-18. But again, do you think the Penn State players actually believe the Illini are better than them? Isn't it realistic to believe the players themselves may feel like they weren't beaten by Illinois, but rather beaten by the circumstances?
Ohio State beat Penn State, 33-24. The better team won. No question there.
What's the point of all this? It's about perception vs. reality.
And about confidence.
THE ESSENTIALS
• What: Penn State (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) vs. Michigan (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten)
• When: Saturday, noon
• Where: Beaver Stadium
• Forecast: 41°, showers possible
• TV: ABC
• Satellite: Sirius XM 83, online 83
• Box score: ESPN
• Media notes: Penn State | Michigan
The perception from the outside is that, at 6-3 but with two very costly losses, this season has already turned into a disappointment for many Penn State fans who believe the team may not be all that good.
Raise your hand if you feel that way.
However, this Penn State team is, in all honesty, one play away from being 8-1, with only a close loss at Ohio State in a game that was 27-24 entering the fourth quarter. If Clifford hadn't gotten injured on that play at Iowa, don't we all believe the Lions would have won that game and the Illinois game?
Again, the players have every reason to feel that way. So, from a confidence standpoint, no matter how the outside world views everything, the actual members of the football program still have to have a lot of confidence that they are, in fact, a really good team.
Does any of this really matter? Well, yes, because of the confidence factor. Don't forget that we're talking about 18- to 22-year-old kids here, and confidence is always a big factor with them. Just because the outside world has lost confidence in them because of poor performances in losses doesn't mean that the players themselves are lacking confidence.
Saturday's game against No. 6 Michigan will give us a lot of answers about this Penn State team. The contest will provide an opportunity for the season's biggest marquee win to date -- a win that would keep alive hope for a 9-3 season and really good bowl game, quite possibly even the Rose Bowl.
Is Penn State good enough to beat Michigan with a healthy Clifford? Can the offense finally run the ball? Can the defense stop the run against a team that's really good on the ground? Or will the Wolverines come in and expose Penn State's numerous issue and pull out a comfortable victory?
Here's my game breakdown:
OFFENSE
Penn State: It's basically been all or nothing for the Lions, who need big plays to score, usually from Clifford to Jahan Dotson. The running game has been an embarrassment this season, and Clifford has thrown an incredible 99 passes over the past two games. But Keyvone Lee did rush for 134 yards in last year's 27-17 win at Michigan, so maybe there can be some hope there. One big factor is whether Clifford can or will take off and run some. The offense is at its best when he's a threat to run, but that just hasn't been the case since his injury. Here's what Clifford said about running when asked Wednesday:
“I feel like I’ve not been involved as much in the rushing game, but I don’t know if I would say that was due to injury or any external source like that. I think it’s more we’re putting up numbers in the passing game. I feel extremely confident in the pocket right now, getting a lot of protection, guys getting open downfield. That’s kind of also influencing it. I feel there are some plays that I can make outside the pocket, and when they’re there, I’m going to make them. But I’ve also grown up a little bit, and I’ve understood that standing in the pocket and waiting that extra half second or two, there’s going to be guys coming open."
Michigan: The Wolverines have big questions at running back as Blake Corum is questionable with an injury. He's the second-leading rusher with 778 yards and averages 6.0 per carry with 10 TDs. Third-leading rusher Donovan Edwards (139 yards, 6.3 ypc) also is questionable with an injury. If Corum especially can't go, it could change a lot of things for the Wolverines, who would be content with running and running and running. Leading rusher Hassan Haskins has 829 yards rushing, averages 5.0 yards and has scored 10 TDs.
Quarterback Cade McNamara is solid but hasn't been asked to do too much in this offense. He's thrown for 1,666 yards with nine TDs and two interceptions while competing 62.5 percent. Depending on the status of Corum and Edwards, offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, a former Penn State assistant, may have to have McNamara throw the ball a good bit more. Although something tells me Michigan's running game will be just fine.
Advantage: Michigan
DEFENSE
Penn State: I'll keep this short and sweet. Red zone. I think Michigan will move the ball and have a good number of scoring opportunities, and so Lions must continue to excel in the red zone and force the Wolverines to settle for field goals.
Michigan: The Wolverines know Penn State can't run the ball and will game plan accordingly. They probably won't even have to load up the box to stop the run, meaning they'll be able to keep an extra man or two in coverage to try and slow down Penn State's passing game.
Advantage: Let's call this one even
COACHING/INTANGIBLES
Penn State: Go back and read all of that stuff at the top of the column again. That's intangible stuff I'm talking about there. The Lions have a lot of reasons to still be confident, even if fans and media may not be all that confident in them. James Franklin needs this game. Badly. A win here, and 9-3 or 8-4 is still possible. That's not too bad. But if the Lions lose, then lose at Michigan State, that's 7-5. That would be a massively disappointing record for a team that once was ranked No. 4 in the nation. Franklin's desirability factor for other jobs would take a hit, and he would lose more leverage at Penn State when it comes to being able to ask for the moon as far as more resources.
Michigan: Jim Harbaugh has a chance to win his first Big Ten title this season, so he needs this game to stay alive. It obviously would take a win over Ohio State in two weeks to make that happen. If the Wolverines win the Big Ten, they would go to the College Football Playoff. So they clearly have a great deal of motivation here. Harbaugh tends to get overly conservative with big games on the line, so don't be surprised if that happens again and he costs the team with a questionable decision or two.
Advantage: Michigan
PREDICTION
Penn State can't run the ball, so I can't pick the Lions in this kind of game. If by some miracle they do get the running game going, then sure, they can pull this out. But I just don't see it. Michigan 23, Penn State 20
PODCAST: Check out our game preview podcast below with me and Jarrod Prugar.