North Shore Tavern Mound Visit: Five breakout prospect candidates

On Tuesday, minor league baseball finally returns.

All four of the Pirates’ affiliates -- Class AAA Indianapolis, AA Altoona, High-A Greensboro and Low-A Bradenton -- are going to get started on the same day, and there’s a lot to get excited about this year.

Because whether or not the Major League club succeeds or fails in 2021, the focus is on the future and building a talent pipeline. Alternate site camps, remote coaching and instructional leagues can only go so far, and are hardly a proper replacement for actual games.

This is an opportunity for just about everyone to leave a mark. To show that they overcame the odds of the pandemic and actually got better over these past 20 months since their last proper game.

So who looks like they’re about to break out?

For the sake of variety, I’m going to be focusing on prospects who are outside the franchise’s top 10 or top 20. Yes, if Tahnaj Thomas proves he can pitch a whole season as a starter with his upper-90s stuff, that would be huge. He’d become a unanimous top 100 prospect. Even players in that pantheon, like Oneil Cruz, have a lot to prove and are still waiting for a proper “break out.” 

But they’re already on the radar. People have high expectations for them. Who else could join them?

Here are five guys to watch in 2021:

RHP MICHAEL BURROWS, GREENSBORO

Burrows has already been the subject of his own Mound Visit after he started getting more movement on his pitches by using a prototype tool. Now it’s time for him to use it in games.

Talking to Burrows this offseason, he told me that the old regime had him working down in the zone because all of the pitchers worked down in the zone. It was based on overarching philosophies rather than what would actually benefit the player. 

There are a handful of pitchers with high-spin fastballs in the system who could benefit from this change in philosophy -- Max Kranick, Steven Jennings, Santiago Florez -- but there are a couple factors that made me choose Burrows.

One is the increased spin efficiency, thanks to working with Clean Fuego. That was in the first Mound Visit. Second, he also has a high-spin curve, averaging about 2,800 RPM, which should tunnel off those new high fastballs. 

But what’s really intriguing is the increase in velocity, revving it up to the mid-90s more consistently:

This could be a big year for him with those two pitches, and that’s what he really leans on.

“I don’t want to be a guy who is a jack of all trades,” Burrows told me in October. “I would rather be a master of two pitches and still get that third offering, but I really want to hammer my fastball, curveball. I want those to be elite and have those every day when I show up.”

Burrows is going to be part of a very talented, very crowded group of starting pitchers in Greensboro. He’s going to have to show a third pitch in order to stick in the rotation, but if he doesn’t, he would probably do very well out of the bullpen, perhaps in a multi-inning role. 

The old regime liked Burrows enough to go way over slot value to sign him in 2018. The new regime could help him reach his potential.

RHP NICK GARCIA, BRADENTON

The Pirates certainly didn’t shy away from taking less experienced pitchers in last year’s draft. First-rounder Carmen Mlodzinski didn’t really start pitching until his senior year in high school, fourth-rounder Jack Hartman gave it a shot after a failed college audition as an infielder.

And Garcia originally went to Chapman University as a third baseman, but eventually transitioned to the mound.

I really liked last year’s draft class, and Garcia was a big reason why. Teams were hesitant to pick a converted infielder from a Division III school, but the Pirates got their man in the third round. They looked beyond just his lack of experience and his school and saw the stuff.

The fastball sits in the mid-90s with strong spin, and should play in all quadrants of the strike zone. It’s a good foundational pitch, and one that should carry him through the minors if nothing else.

He has two breaking pitches that are still fairly early in their development. He has a slider, which has evolved from a cutter, his original breaking ball from when he was learning how to pitch. It still leans a bit on the cutter side, so while it has good velocity (about 85 mph), it doesn’t have a lot of spin. It’s got more run than drop.

He also has a curve, which breaks at a 2-to-8 axis. This is the newer of his two breaking pitches, and it seems like there is more room to grow here. Getting that break closer to 1-to-7 would go a long way. He has the breaking pitch that gets run. He needs one that leans more on vertical movement. If he doesn’t get it, he could have difficulty getting lefties out. Everything would be breaking in on them. The changeup is a work in progress, too.

If he had a better pedigree, Garcia might have gone at the end of the first round in last year’s draft. He has a plus fastball and two potential average breaking pitches, and is still developing. He could get better. Right now, a middle of the rotation ceiling seems fair, or maybe a late-inning reliever. He’ll start in Bradenton rather than the Gulf Coast League, indicating the Pirates are ready to push him.

RHP TRAVIS MACGREGOR, ALTOONA

Perhaps this would be more aptly titled as “MacGregor better break out this year.” Not only did he not pitch in a game last year, he missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Like Garcia, there’s a certain level of mystery about what the Curve are getting here.

“You certainly get a renewed passion for it,” MacGregor said about the process during the Curve’s media day availability Sunday. “I was close to the end of that rehab period and was like, ‘OK, I can smell games coming again.’ When COVID hit, that hurt. I took a little bit of a take a step back and in my head the thought process was, ‘OK, this is more healing time. I’ve got to continue to attack my work days and know there's light at the end of the tunnel.’ So a continued push through the rehab is how I addressed all that.”

Despite the long layoff, I had an industry source tell me this winter that they were surprised nobody took him in the Rule 5 draft this winter. If the hype I’ve heard about him is true, then it certainly would have been in the realm of possibility.

He’s shortened up his motion and delivery, taking some pressure off that arm and elbow. The fastball is sitting 93-96 mph, up from the lower-90s from before the surgery. He’s ditched the curveball to focus on just a slider, which he is excited about.

“It's the best the breaking ball has ever done for me,” MacGregor said. “I've been super-excited about that and our coaches have been thrilled with it. I'm pretty excited to be able to present that to hitters this year and see what happens.”

The Pirates are slotting MacGregor into the Curve’s rotation, so he’s got one more shot to stick as a starter. If he’s healthy and can refine his control, he has three pitches that look like they should be major-league average. Even after being sidelined for two years and never really breaking out before the injury, MacGregor still has a real shot of being a good backend of the rotation starter or a good bullpen hand.

And if he does have a good year, the Pirates will definitely have to add him to the roster or lose him in the  Rule 5.

1B/3B ALEXANDER MOJICA, BRADENTON

It’s pretty clear which hitters have the most raw power in the Pirates’ system: Cruz and Mason Martin.

Even at just 18, Mojica might just be third.

I don’t want to dive into 2019 Dominican League stats with Mojica, though they were outstanding.

Instead, just focus on the swing:

It’s short and sweet, stroke. Not too long, not a lot of moving parts. Good control of his body. Quick hands. Obvious potential for power. Lots of good things here.

And again, he dominated in the Dominican League, but was that his true ability or simply him just being bigger than anyone else? I’m inclined to believe the former, but until he actually gets into games, we won’t know for sure.

Mojica plays third right now, but will probably slide over to first as he continues to grow. He’s a hitter. He’s going to have to show he can hold his own in the field too, but at 18, just being a pure hitter is fine. This is more of a 2022 problem, because while the designated hitter seems inevitable in the National League, it’s not guaranteed.

He’s going to get his first crack stateside this summer. He’s very raw, but the hit tools are there. If it translates to Bradenton, then the Pirates could have a good insurance plan at first in case Martin doesn’t pan out.

OF CANAAN SMITH-NJIGBA, ALTOONA

Smith-Njigba is one of four players the Pirates got back from the Yankees in the Jameson Taillon trade. While pitchers Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure were the headliners in that deal, internally, the Pirates were very high on both of the position players they got back as well. They weren't just throw-ins in their eyes. 

Smith-Njigba was given his first taste of major-league spring training this year, and to be fair, it didn’t go great, going 1-for-14 with five strikeouts. Don’t judge him off what was effectively a series worth of at-bats, though. There were some ugly swings, but he also showed that he had a good feel for the zone:

He’s been praised for swinging at good pitches, and he has real power that started to translate into games in 2019. The problem is the number of whiffs and ugly swings. There are a lot of moving parts here, including the big leg kick, which might be throwing off his balance. Going back to spring, it seemed like his back leg would give out when his timing’s off.

After seeing how major-league hitters struggled to get their timing down in 2020, it would be safe to assume that we should see that throughout the minors in the early parts of this year. I think that’s what happened in spring training, but Smith-Njigba has had a whiff problem. He swings at good pitches. It’s about getting the bat to the ball and consistently putting his body in a good position to hit.

I’m anticipating Smith-Njigba to be a bit of a frustrating at times, but the raw tools are there and should start to translate over a full season. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up leading the Curve in extra-base hits this year, even though Cruz and Martin are going to start in Altoona. He could make a case to join the Pirates as soon as next season, and it’s quite clear the big team could use some outfield help. 

He took a big step in Class A with the Yankees in 2019. The Pirates are being aggressive and having him skip High-A this season. They’re high on him. If he can find a more consistent rhythm in an everyday role, he could continue to be fast tracked to the majors.

The other position player that came over in the Taillon deal, infielder Maikol Escotto, is an honorable mention for this list. Solid raw power, and he has potential to stick in the middle infield defensively.