PHILADELPHIA -- Tristan Jarry isn't the NHL's best goaltender. That'd be the most recent Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck, a workhorse in Winnipeg.
Jarry isn't the best goaltender in the new East Division, either. That'd be Tuukka Rask, a Vezina finalist and a decade-long fixture in Boston.
Heck, as long as I'm hacking this into sub-categories, Jarry might not even be the best young goaltender on the ice tonight when the Penguins christen their 52nd season against the Flyers, since the archrivals will start Carter Hart. That kid's already entering his third season here, all of 22 years old, and his future just keeps brightening.
And yet ...
There's at least modest evidence that Jarry might not be far off. From any of these guys. Or anyone.
See, funny thing happened in Pittsburgh last winter, at least as I saw it: While we were all fussing over Matt Murray's latest streak or slump or slow glove hand, Jarry not only overtook Murray for the Penguins' starting job -- on indisputable merit, it should be added -- but also subtly ascended into the NHL's top 10 in the three most appreciated goaltending statistics:
• Save percentage: .921, 9th
• Goals-against average: 2.43, 9th
• Shutouts, 3, tied for 8th
And while a single season is always a small sample size, Jarry's role within the abbreviated 2019-20 schedule wasn't, having logged 33 of his team's 69 games. He ranked 35th in games played, 17th with 20 wins. That's barely half of Hellebuyck's 58-game haul, but it's not like Jarry was one of those backups who pops atop one of these lists undeservedly.
Now look closer: His save percentage wound up a single tick behind Hellebuyck's .922, his goals-against average wound up a single tick behind Hart's 2.42, and the only goaltenders matching or topping his shutout rate of one every 11 games were Hellebuyck, Marc-Andre Fleury, Elvis Merzlikins and Jaroslav Halak.
That's some serious company, if only, to repeat, for a single season.
But here's the thing: Jarry's just 25 years old himself. And even though it took him a little longer to reach Pittsburgh than he -- or Jim Rutherford, for that matter -- would've liked, he's very much arrived. With a feeling that it's foundational, while at the same time that there's still a significant space between the top of his helmet and his ceiling.
His coach has seen it.
“I think Tristan has the ability to be a real impact goaltender for us,” Mike Sullivan spoke at the training camp that concluded yesterday in Cranberry. “He’s really talented, and I think the evolution of his game has come a long way in the time he’s been a Pittsburgh Penguin. I think the sky's the limit for him. I think he has the ability to grow in every aspect of his game.”
“I think he’s played enough and, like any goalie, you love when you see that they're poised back there and confident,” Sidney Crosby said. “He showed that last year.”
His newer teammates, maybe not coincidentally, speak even more glowingly, unfamiliar with flaws earlier in his professional career.
“He’s a world-class goalie," Jason Zucker said. "He’s incredible. I think he’s going to have a great year this year."
Hey, don't dismiss it. All it'd take is a slightly extended sequel of what he just achieved.
And, as Sullivan stressed on his own, there's been an "evolution" in which Jarry did "come a long way." He was a second-round pick in the 2013 NHL Draft following a spectacular run with Edmonton of the WHL but, once in the system here, always was beset by inconsistencies. He'd visibly be the most athletic goaltender on the ice in any setting, including when he'd share a rink with Murray or Fleury ... after which he'd allow one softy, then another, then another, and before long he'd blend into the background.
After a couple years of watching Murray and Fleury raise the Stanley Cup, then Murray taking the No. 1 job, then seeing journeyman Casey DeSmith come along and earn an NHL contract a couple years ago, it'd seem that finally did it: Jarry showed up for training camp in the fall of 2019, discarded his one-way ticket to Wilkes-Barre and dominated drills, scrimmages and exhibitions to such a degree that Rutherford and Sullivan had no choice but to demote DeSmith instead.
Soon thereafter, Jarry was an All-Star, Murray was a Senator, and DeSmith's now his backup.
Here's the wild part, from this perspective: Jarry's easygoing to the extreme, engaging with everyone, soft with the smile and laugh ... and basically nothing at all like how I'd envision anyone being before burning down the village the way he did.
Sullivan gave it a shot when asked about this, replying, "He’s a competitive guy. He wants the net. He has a quiet confidence about him."
Not surprisingly, Jarry fended off a barrage of similar questions through camp, as if fending off a power play.
On his mindset, now that he's No. 1: "My mindset is still the same, I want to get better every day, and I want to challenge myself to be a better goalie every day."
On his goal for this camp: "Just trying to get better every day."
On what kind of workload he expects this season: "Nothing's really been said. We're going to see how it goes."
You betcha.
Sullivan was more successful, I thought, when asked specifically about Jarry straightening out his career, observing, “Tristan deserves a lot of credit for that. He’s worked extremely hard to get to the point where he’s at. I know he takes pride in his game and his work habits. For me, that’s the most important thing when it relates to Tristan: He’s really matured both on the ice and off the ice in establishing the necessary work habits that give him the opportunity to have success when the game occurs.”
Well, here we are again. A game, finally, is about to occur, followed by 55 more in another abbreviated season. With the additional quirk this time that the Penguins and all teams won't stray from their newly formed divisions.
Which leads me, at long last, to this: If Jarry's among the best two or three goaltenders in the East, tell me, please, how the Penguins wouldn't finish in the top four and make the playoffs.
I know, right?
Both of the East's goaltenders with a better save percentage last season, Rask and Halak, play in Boston. So, huzzah for the Bruins, but what's it say for the rest of the division?
Similarly, Rask, Halak and Hart were the only ones ahead in goals-against average.
Want to go advanced?
Here's a fun one: The average distance of a goal allowed by Jarry was 20 feet, 13 inches. Ten qualified NHL goaltenders had even shorter distances, including Hellebuyck, but none is employed in the East.
Trust me, this is so much more important than so much of what'll get discussed here and around the Penguins' broader world tonight, meaning cool stuff like this:
Everyone loves goals, and Pittsburgh loves 'em more than most. Four decades of marquee talent will spoil any city.
But this season will be defined, at least if it goes well, by how the Penguins defend. By how dedicated their forwards are to playing-the-right-way puck aggressiveness and responsibility, by a defense corps that legitimately runs nine deep and, above all, by the dude in the mask.
If he loses the hunger that gained him this role, if he lapses back for whatever reason, none of the rest matters. Not Sid or Evgeni Malkin. Not the fast additions, notably Kasperi Kapanen. Not the change in coaches. Not the possible resurrection of the power play.
None. Of. It.
Concurrently, should Jarry fare as all concerned are hoping, I can't see how the Penguins fall out of the top four. I really can't.
I don't take the Devils seriously at all, so it's really seven teams vying for four spots. The Sabres get their fans all geeked up every summer, presumably because this was the offseason in which Jack Eichel got really mad you guys, but they've also hit the links early every spring now since 2011. There's some talent there, but it'd take a ridiculous uprising for Buffalo, so let's reduce it to six teams vying for four spots.
This, of course, is where it gets hard.
The Islanders reached the Eastern Conference final before falling to the eventual champs, the Lightning, and that comes with respect. The Bruins are right at that level. The rebuilding Rangers contended before even they'd expected, and now they've added Alexis Lafreniere to Artemi Panarin and others, not to mention -- finally -- needed new blood in goal after Henrik Lundqvist's exit. The Capitals are getting older and, curiously, seem to be embracing that by adding Zdeno Chara and others. Regardless, they're still a threat. The Flyers ... eh, we'll see, because they've got youth and speed but still rely far too much on Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek.
Tough, tough, tough.
But let's talk goal.
The Islanders have Semyon Varlamov, who's as mercurial as anyone at the position and feeds off the Barry Trotz bubble in front of him. The Bruins have Rask and Halak and are better than anyone in the crease, meaning anywhere. The Rangers dethroned their King for a couple kids, Alexandar Georgiev and Igor Shesterkin, both promising but neither proven. The Capitals shipped out Braden Holtby, which still makes no sense to me, and will turn to Ilya Samsonov, veteran of 26 whole NHL games. The Flyers have Hart.
Which goaltenders would an impartial witness rate above the 2019-20 version of Jarry?
This, my friends, is the variable.
As Zucker worded it regarding Jarry, maybe without knowing to what extent it was true, “He can be a big impact player for us.”
The puck drops at 5:38 p.m. here inside Wells Fargo Center.