The Pirates, like many teams, will be looking for pitching this offseason. It is hard to imagine them competing in 2020 without adding a legitimate arm into the mix, and while they can dream of someday having a pitcher like Gerrit Cole, they have to be more realistic.
Like always, they have to spend their money wisely and find value players. Pitchers with good peripherals that should help them overcome mediocre results, need a mechanical tweak or had health problems.Simply put, they need to find a No. 2 or 3 starter for the price they would pay a No. 4 or 5. Fortunately for them, this year's pitching class is not as top heavy as it has been made out to be. While this is hardly an exhaustive list of all the starters the Pirates could end up considering, this Mound Visit will focus on some of the most undervalued free agent pitchers available.
To be clear, there is no indication the Pirates are interested in any of these pitchers at this time. They may never be. Interim general manager Kevan Graves will not be allowed to make a splash in free agency, so there is no way a player can be connected to the team until the next GM is hired. This is just an examination of some pitchers who will not get as much fanfare but can still make an impact for their new team.
RHP Kyle Gibson
Gibson was considered a candidate for a qualifying offer, but the Twins opted to not extend it to the 32 year old. To be fair, $17.8 million is a large sum of money to give to a pitcher who finished with a 4.84 ERA.
Gibson was once considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and while he has not lived up to those lofty expectations, he had carved out a nice career as a ground ball pitcher through the 2017 season. Things started to change for him in 2018 and he started getting more whiffs and strikeouts than ever before, elevating himself into an impact player.
However, Gibson had some health problems in 2019. He dealt with gastrointestinal issues during spring training due to E. Coli he contracted while volunteering in the Caribbean. He dealt with inflammation all season long and started losing weight rapidly in July. He was eventually placed on the injured list on Sept. 1 with ulcerative colitis. The ailment made it difficult for him to sleep, which was a big reason for his drop-off in August and September.
But before that drop-off, Gibson was having a fine season. Let's take a look at his stats through Aug. 3 compared to his 2018 campaign:
His ERA and xwOBA were a little higher, but basically every other metric is right in line with his breakout 2018 season, if not a bit better. Gibson's legs gave out in the dog days of August because he was not sleeping and he was lighter than usual. It was a freak illness that was bad for his market but good for teams looking for a value priced middle of the rotation arm.
Gibson is going to be an interesting case in this winter. Even after a rotten finish and a down year overall, he is still one of the top free agent pitchers available. A two year deal worth about $20 million would be the most likely outcome, but he could be a candidate to take a one year, "show me" contract so he could go for a bigger multi-year deal next winter. It also seems just as plausible that he tries to get a third year now, even if it means a lower AAV. Would a team even offer him that third year given his age and Tommy John and shoulder injury history?
But consider this: Steamer projects Gibson to be worth 2.9 fWAR in 2020. Zack Wheeler, the most desirable starting pitcher on the market besides Cole and Stephen Strasburg, is projected to be worth 3.1 WAR. FanGraphs' crowdsource forecasts Wheeler to get a four year, $72 million deal and Gibson a two year, $20 million contract. Which one would you rather have at those prices?
LHP Martín Pérez
Another Twins pitcher to consider. Pérez had an uninspiring 5.12 ERA over 165.1 innings, and while that is noticeably higher than his 4.66 FIP, that FIP is not exactly great, either. However, there is a lot to like about Pérez and his untapped potential.
Let's look at his stuff first. Pérez morphed his slider into a cutter in 2019 and it served him well. It became his go-to pitch, using it 30.8% of the time because hitters could not square it up. Batters hit .214 against it with an anemic .260 xwOBA. He also relied on his changeup more and got much better results with it. His curveball also gets a good amount of spin and might be an underutilized asset. Even with some concerns with his four-seamer and sinker, he has three potentially plus pitches at his disposal.
He also got a ton of soft contact last year. He ranked in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and the 93rd in hard hit percentage. That soft contact was why he finished with a .304 xwOBA, which is quite good for a starter and a lot better than his ERA and FIP would indicate.
Last year, batters had a .337 wOBA against Pérez, representing a 33 point difference between his actual and expected results. That is significant, as it was the largest gap between actual and expected results among the 108 pitchers who faced at least 500 batters last year. It is tough to say which pitchers are "lucky" or "unlucky", but a case could be made that Pérez was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball last year.
There is some debate on which predictive tool is better, xwOBA or FIP, but it is undeniable the two correlate. To illustrate this, I graphed out both metrics using pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title last season. While most pitchers hovered around the trend line, Pérez was an outlier.
The quality of contact he allowed was comparable to pitchers with a FIP around 4. That may not sound too impressive, but Pérez is an inning eater. Extrapolate that FIP over 180 innings and he becomes a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher.
The Twins turned down a $7.5 million 2020 option on Pérez, so it is hard to see him signing for more than that. He has never really clicked in the majors, but he throws strikes and gets soft contact. He may be closer to breaking out than the back of the baseball card would indicate.
LHP Alex Wood
Wood was one of the game's most underrated lefties from 2014-2018. Out of left-handed pitchers who tossed at least 300 innings in that five year window, he ranked eighth in ERA (3.03), eighth in FIP (3.43) and 13th in bWAR (11.4). He did not have a bad year in that stretch, either, being a reliable hand in the rotation and the bullpen.
But 2019 was a different story. Wood was traded from the Dodgers to the Reds last December and things went south fast. He started battling back troubles in late February and did not make his first start of the season until July 28. When he did finally reach the mound, he allowed 11 home runs in seven games and finished with a 5.80 ERA before being shut down with back problems again.
While the back injury was clearly the main cause of Wood's struggles, he also made a weird mechanics change to his delivery last season. Here he is in 2018, hitting his target with a fastball on the low, outside corner for strike three against Joey Votto. Pay attention to his feet during his delivery:
That was delightfully simple. He gets set and makes one stride towards the plate. There is only step involved, and it's to home.
Now here is Wood last August against the Pirates. Here, he missed the glove and Kevin Newman walked. Again, watch his feet:
For starters, he has a different set position. Now he is directly facing home and he takes three steps during his delivery: One to set his plant leg, one to get on the rubber and his step towards the plate. The Reds did some great work last year to improve their pitching staff, but Wood was their most notable miss.
Wood also had a lower arm slot last year, especially with his fastball. It's not clear whether this is a product of the new delivery, the back injury or both, but it's unmistakable:
It's risky to sign a player with back problems, but Wood will almost certainly have to take a one year, incentive laden deal this offseason. That makes him a very low risk pickup, at least from a financial standpoint. If he is healthy and adopts his old mechanics, he could go back to having a mid-3 ERA and FIP.
Honorable mentions
Jerad Eickhoff: He has experienced numbness in his fingers at times over the past few years and has failed to live up to the promise he showed in 2015 and 2016. However, he has added a ton of spin on his fastball, curve and slider, which makes him intriguing. He's a long shot, but he could be worth a look on a minor league contract.
Rick Porcello: The 2016 Cy Young winner just had the worst season of his roller coaster of a career. He has bounced back from bad years before, but there are some serious red flags for his future, including decreased spin and vertical break on his fastball. Still, he has the ceiling of an ace and will sign for far less than that would reflect.
Danny Salazar: Injuries have limited Salazar to just four major league innings over the last two years, and, unsurprisingly, they were not particularly good. There was a time not that long ago that Salazar stood right aside Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer in heading the Indians' rotation. Those days are gone, but there may be some quality major league innings left in that right arm. His best course of action would probably be to have a showcase later in the offseason, and every team should attend.
Data from Baseball Savant and FanGraphs. Graphic from Brooks Baseball.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Nov. 5: What would a dejuiced ball mean for hitters?
Oct. 22: What would a dejuiced ball mean for pitchers?
Oct. 15: How Kuhl could break big
Oct. 10: The lesson from Cole/Glasnow
