STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- With just 36 games left in the long-ago lost 2019 season, the PBC is playing out the string, and there are several Pirates pitchers who are now actively auditioning for roles on the 2020 club.
Just as we did in highlighting a few hitters doing the same, today we'll turn our attention to the mound, pointing out the two most obvious auditions, bringing to light the cases for and against the hurler, summing things up with the "one thing" he'll have to do to nail down his spot on the team's 2020 Opening Day 25-man.
STEVEN BRAULT
Brault has looked great since returning from injury, but his newfound 2019 effectiveness has stretched long beyond that in reality. In fact, the entire picture that Brault has painted in 2019 of himself as a starter is an intriguing one:
Click/Tap to enlargeA 3.45 ERA while striking out 8.4 hitters per nine certainly seems to be a solid foundation for a starting pitcher. Does the left-hander have enough in his bag to build upon it?
The case for: The answer lies in just how well Brault's fastball can continue to play. Though he threw more cutters/sliders in last night's eventual loss to the Nationals than he has in some time, Brault's increased use of the four-seam fastball has been the key to his mini-renaissance:
Click/Tap to enlargeThe Pirates like to remind us all that "establishing fastball command" is the key for any pitcher, but, well, in Brault's case, the team's brass is absolutely right. Now that he has harnessed his fastball, it's something his other pitches can play off. If last night's usage and results -- Brault collected 10 whiffs on those 32 cutters/sliders -- are a harbinger of any sort, Brault may now have a repertoire that will hold up as a starting pitcher.
The case against: In 2018, Brault carried SP/RP splits that were a near mirror-opposite of what they are in 2019:
Click/tap to enlargeIn an admittedly small split, Brault seemed to be much less sturdy as a starter in 2018. Sample size limitations are in play here, but this is something to consider.
Something else to consider that is sample-size proof: The control. Brault has walk rates of 11 percent and 13.8 percent in 2019 and 2018, respectively. Those are obviously less than desirable figures. What will happen if the fastball command suddenly leaves him again?
The one thing: With Jameson Taillon's 2020 absence leaving a huge hole in the team's rotation, the road is clear for Brault to take this late success and run with it. A lot can happen between now and the end of next season's time in Bradenton, but if Brault continues to use fastball command wisely, he will set himself up as a favorite to take a rotation spot when camp opens.
DARIO AGRAZAL
Any luster surrounding Agrazal was dulled over his last three major league starts, in which he pitched to an 8.36 ERA in just 14 innings. In giving up seven home runs across 18 hits in that span, he managed to take a .244 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) rating and render it worthless. Perhaps we were all waiting for the other shoe to drop, yet Agrazal got some excited again when he came back to the big league club in short notice and pitched two sterling innings of relief. Though admittedly coming in garbage time against the Nationals in the Pirates' eventual 11-1 loss, the appearance nevertheless reminded us what we like about Agrazal.
The case for: Despite that three-start stretch of futility, Agrazal carries a hard-hit rate of just 27.9 percent as per Statcast, well below the league rate of 37.4 percent and better than 97 percent of MLB relievers. Without the benefit of sturdy sample size, I'll stop short from saying that this is a marketable skill for Agrazal. But, it is worth noting that this rate comes in an era where league-wide reliever hard-hit rates have increased every year from 2016's 30.5 percent up to today's mark.
Does this mean that Agrazal has some devil magic in his stuff? Not exactly, but all of his pitches move well, opening up the entire strike zone for him to utilize.
The case against: But then again, Agrazal's lack of amazing stuff forces him into the zone at 52.5 percent of the time, with everyone else in the league landing at a 49.9 percent clip. Agrazal attempts to offset his need to attack the zone constantly by utilizing the edges of the zone, which he does at a 43.2 percent rate (league number for this is 39.1 percent), but he carries a .393 wOBA on those edges, easily the highest of all Pirates pitchers who have thrown at least 50 pitches this season.
The one thing: Without established swing and miss stuff, Agrazal will need to prove that his ability to induce soft contact is no fluke. To get there, he'll have to mix and match his pitches well, while utilizing eye-level and location changes. In other words, he'll have to accumulate more outings like Tuesday's to be in the mix for a swingman spot in 2020.
MORE MOUND VISIT
Aug. 21: Hitter auditions
Aug 19: Reynolds walks this way
Aug 15: Stratton the spin doc
Aug 13: A sputtering offense
