Jordan Lyles' 2019 season is a perfect reflection of the Pirates' starting rotation overall: Historically dominant out of the gate, and historically hittable ever since.
He salvaged his career as a reliever last year by revamping his pitch mix -- four-seam fastballs high in the zone, hammer curves at the knees -- and appeared to translate those results to an expanded starting role with Pittsburgh this spring. Signed to a one-year, $2.05 million deal over the winter, he was touted as one of the biggest free agent bargains in the game and another example of the Pirates finding value from a veteran pitching reclamation project.
And then, he hit the wall. Hard.
Already nearing his innings pitched total from last season (75 frames in 2019, 87.2 in '18), Lyles has been crushed since late May while also dealing with a lingering left hamstring injury. Over his first eight starts, spanning 47.2 innings pitched, Lyles had a 1.89 ERA with 9.3 strikeouts, 3.2 walks and 0.9 home runs per nine innings pitched. His fielding independent ERA (FIP) -- a more accurate measure of pitching performance that's based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed -- was 3.34. Since then, Lyles has lasted just 29.1 innings in seven starts. He's still missing bats (10.1 K/9), but he has lost the strike zone (4.6 BB/9) while serving up a staggering 2.5 home runs per nine frames. Lyles' ERA over that seven-start stretch is 10.13 (second-worst in the majors among pitchers with 20+ innings pitched since mid-May) and his FIP is 6.14. Even in a rotation stretched too thin by injury, Lyles must have a short leash at this point.
Let's take a closer look at the differences between a dominant Lyles, and the guy getting drubbed over the past couple of months.
In terms of pitch type, nothing drastic has changed for Lyles. During his superb start to the 2019 season, he threw fastballs about 50 percent of the time and curveballs about 31 percent. He also mixed in the occasional slider and changeup (thrown about 9 and 10 percent, respectively). Since late May, Lyles has thrown his fastball a little more often (56 percent) and a little harder (93.1 mph, compared to 92.2 mph). He's still dropping plenty of curves (31 percent), and showing hitters slightly fewer sliders (7 percent) and changeups (7 percent).
What has changed is the effectiveness of those offerings. According to Fangraphs, Lyles' fastball was worth +1.4 runs more per 100 pitches thrown compared to an average MLB pitcher during his first eight starts. Since then, it has been -1.4 runs below average. His curveball was +1.5 runs above average per 100 pitches early on, and -2.8 runs below average per 100 since then. His slider was effective in short doses in April and early May (+4 per 100 pitches), and wretched ever since (-5 runs below average). Ditto for his changeup (+0.5 early, -5.3 since late May).
So, none of Lyles' pitches is working lately. But let's dig a little deeper. What has changed about those pitches -- particularly on his two most important offerings? Through his first eight starts, Lyles' fastball averaged about 4.6 inches of horizontal movement in on right-handed hitters compared to a pitch thrown without spin. His heater "rose" (dropped less) 9.5 inches compared to a no-spin pitch. During his difficult stretch, Lyles is averaging 3.9 inches of tail in on righties and 9.3 inches of vertical movement. The spin rate on his fastball has dipped from 2,185 revolutions per minute to 2,151 rpm, according the MLB Statcast. Essentially, Lyles is throwing his fastball harder -- but that extra zip has come at the expense of movement. And his harder, flatter fastball is getting hammered. Lyles had a .316 opponent slugging percentage against his fastball through early May, and a .613 slugging percentage since then.
With his curveball, the good version of Lyles averaged about 9 inches of drop in the zone compared to a pitch thrown without spin. Over the past two months, he has averaged 8.3 inches of drop. His spin rate on the curve has declined from 2,517 rpm to 2,495 rpm. It's a similar story to his fastball: The pitch isn't moving as much. Lyles limited batters to a .241 slugging percentage on curves while dominating, and .651 since then.
With his two bread-and-butter pitches, Lyles has lost movement and spin as the innings have piled up. That decline in stuff and performance, coupled with some injury concerns, naturally raise the question of whether Lyles should return to a bullpen role. Maybe, in shorter stints, his pitches would regain their movement and he could get back to being an asset for a team that still has designs on contending for the NL Central.
That could be a winning approach, despite how thin the Pirates are in the rotation. Maybe Lyles would be a good "opener" or multi-inning reliever.
But here's one complicating factor: Lyles hasn't exactly shut down batters from the start this year. Check out his on-base-plus slugging percentage (OPS) against by time through the lineup. He has struggled mightily when facing batters for the first time in a game, settled in while navigating the lineup for a second time, and faded as his pitch count climbed:
Considering that Lyles hasn't thrown more than 100 innings in a season since 2014, and that his career high is just 141 frames, the Pirates' best bet is to shift Lyles back into a relief role or have him piggyback with someone like Steven Brault. But for Lyles to succeed in any role moving forward, he'll need to stop being a punching bag right after taking the mound.
MORE PIRATES
• Frame job: When it comes to pitch framing -- the subtle art of stealing strikes on pitches located on the fringes of the strike zone -- the Pirates have two players at the opposite end of the spectrum. Jacob Stallings, at least so far, is awesome at expanding the zone for his pitchers. Elias Diaz? Not so much. According to StatCorner, Stallings is getting about +1.7 more called strikes per game compared to the average catcher. That's the fourth-best rate among all backstops who have received at least 1,000 pitches, trailing only Max Stassi (+3.0 per game), Austin Hedges (+2.1) and Tucker Barnhart (+1.9). That stat considers extra called strikes on pitches thrown outside of the zone (a good thing), as well as called balls on in-zone pitches (bad). Despite limited playing time, Stallings' pitch-framing has saved +3.1 runs above average. Diaz, by contrast, gets -1.8 fewer called strikes per game compared to the average catcher. That's second-worst in the majors, ahead of just Isiah Kiner-Falefa (-1.9). Diaz's pitch-framing has cost the Pirates -12.2 runs, per StatCorner, which translates to about one win in the standings. With Francisco Cervelli possibly taking off the chest plate for good and the Pirates lacking quality catching prospects, Stallings has at least solidified his roster spot. As for Diaz, he'll need to rediscover his 2018 power stroke or make serious defensive improvements to be a good long-term starter.
• Up a Crick: Kyle Crick's 2019 season is a high-wire act that would make The Flying Wallendas squeamish. While Crick's ERA is 3.41, his FIP is 5.33. Crick is still missing bats, with a career-high strikeout rate (27.1 percent of plate appearances). But his walk rate has doubled from 2018 (9 percent) to 2019 (18.8 percent). Crick is throwing fewer pitches within the strike zone (50.2 percent in '18 and 45.6 percent in '19, per Fangraphs) and getting hitters to expand their zones less often (29.8 percent chase rate in '18, 28.9 percent in '19). His fastball is at the heart of his control woes. Crick threw his four-seam fastball in the zone 54 percent of the time in '18, and just 49.8 percent this year. His chase rate on the four-seamer has dipped from 29.7 percent to 18.8 percent. Crick has one of the game's nastiest sliders, but he won't survive with just one pitch for long. He has to re-discover his fastball.
PENGUINS
• Extending Sully: Penguins bench boss Mike Sullivan recently earned a four-year contract extension, one that will presumably make the two-time Stanley Cup champion among the game's highest-paid coaches. Sullivan has traversed a bunch of S-curves during his career, going from Bruins wunderkind coach to John Tortorella's right-hand man to Baby Penguins leader to Penguins savior. Sullivan boasts a career .637 points percentage in Pittsburgh, which ranks behind only Dan Bylsma (.668) all-time and places just ahead of Scotty Bowman (.628). With 174 regular-season victories, he could soon surpass Eddie Johnston (232) and Bylsma (252) for the all-time record. And, if the Penguins turn in a strong 2019-20 season and avoid another Islanders-style disaster, he could snatch the franchise's all-time playoff wins record, too (he has 38, which trails only Bylsma at 43). Of course, the frequent mentions of Bylsma drive home how quickly perceptions of NHL coaches can change. Sullivan will always have a special place in Pittsburgh. But if he can eke out another Cup as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang get older, Sullivan will reach a level of reverence so far reserved for only Chuck Noll among Pittsburgh coaches.
• So long, Cullen: Matt Cullen has finally -- we think -- decided to retire, ending a 21-year NHL career defined by championships, leadership and longevity. With 1,516 regular-season games played, Cullen ranks 16th on the NHL's all-time list and second among American-born players (Chris Chelios is first for U.S.-born skaters at 1,651 games). Cullen skated a grand total of 22,991 minutes during the regular season (21st all-time). He's also one of just nine NHL skaters to play more than 200 games after his 40th birthday (222), and one of only 12 to rack up more than 70 points while doing it (73). Now that Cullen is retired, Boston's Zdeno Chara (42) is the game's ultimate graybeard. Unless someone signs Jaromir Jagr (hey, a guy can dream, can't he?)
• Shorty problem solved? The 2018-19 Penguins gave up an infuriating number of short-handed goals (15, tied with the Bruins for the most in the NHL and up from just three shorties allowed in 2017-18). You could make the case that Pittsburgh alleviated part of its short-handed goal problem by trading Phil Kessel. Though a lethal scorer with the man advantage, Kessel did have the third-most power play giveaways (21) among all NHL skaters in 2018-19. He committed 4.7 giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time on the power play, up dramatically from 2.5 in '17-18, 2.1 in '16-17, and 1.46 in '15-16. That said, Kessel wasn't the only one who was a little careless with the puck on the PP. Evgeni Malkin's giveaway rate on the power play climbed to 3.4 per 60 minutes from 2.5 in '17-18. Even the captain slipped up a little--Sidney Crosby had 3.1 giveways per 60, compared to 2.6 the previous season. Fixing the team's short-handed goal problem requires collective improvement from the team's stars, not just one trade.
STEELERS
• Snell's top gear: Steelers fans seem pretty excited over fourth-round running back Benny Snell, who racked up a school-record 3,873 rushing yards at Kentucky with a punishing style. But there are concerns over the bruiser's top-end speed, which only intensified when he turned in a 4.66 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine. For fans who think Snell is more like James Conner (who himself ran a 4.65 40 at the Combine) than, say, Frank Summers, here's an encouraging stat: Snell broke off 39 rushing plays of at least 10 yards during the 2018 college season. That ranked 12th in the nation among major college programs. He ranked in the top 30 in the country the year before, too, with 35 runs of 10+ yards. Snell doesn't have breath-taking straight-line speed, but he can make some splash plays.
• Picking up the pace: While the Steelers endured a disappointing 2018 season overall, the offense did boost its scoring average from 25.4 points per game in 2017 (eighth in the NFL) to 26.8 (tied for sixth). And they did it while giving defenders less time to rest. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers averaged 27.6 seconds between offensive snaps last year (15th in the league), compared to 28.3 seconds the previous year (20th). There was a bigger difference in their offensive pace in the first half between 2017 (28 seconds, 15th) and 2018 (27 seconds, seventh). The Steelers increased their points per game during the first half from 13.5 in 2017 to 14.8 in 2018. During the second half, their points per game total declined from 12.8 in '17 to 12.0 in '18.
• Pick up the pace, part 2: One possible reason for the team's more up-tempo offensive play in 2018? Their love of the no-huddle. According to NFL Savant, the Steelers took an NFL-high 12.4 percent of their snaps out of no-huddle formations in 2018. They gained an NFL-high 1,168 yards in no-huddle formations, and ranked fourth in the game among teams in yards gained per no-huddle snap (6.95) behind the Saints (13), 49ers (7.4) and Rams (7.1). With a younger, less-experienced set of receivers, will the Steelers still be able to rely as much on the no-huddle in 2019?
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Triple-A taters: The home run-hitting surge of 2019 isn't confined to just the majors. This year, the Triple-A-level International and Pacific Coast Leagues switched from using a minor league baseball to a smoother, smaller and springier major league ball. The result? an influx of fireworks. In 2018, International League clubs belted an average of 0.8 home runs per game. This year, they're averaging 1.25 homers per game (a 56 percent increase from the previous year). It's the same story in the Pacific Coast League, where teams went from hitting 0.94 home runs per game to 1.44 per game (a 53 percent increase). I hear the MLB baseballs are pricier than the minor league balls. With so many of them getting crushed into bleacher seats, parking lots, backyards and whatever else lies beyond the outfield fence, be glad you're not on the hook for that bill at the end of the season.
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