STATE COLLEGE, Pa. -- I am absolutely sick of hearing that BABIP -- Batting Average on Balls In Play -- is in any way predictive of how a hitter might be due for regression or progression toward some nebulous "mean." Forget exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA or other metrics that can predict a hitter's ability to land a hit much more accurately ... we have a simple roll-up metric that can tell us if a hitter has been lucky or unlucky, flaws be damned!
I mean, I am really just utterly tired of it, if you couldn't tell:
I say we take BABIP, load it into a rocket, and shoot it into the sun
— Jason Rollison (@jrollisonpgh) June 29, 2019
OK. Now that I've properly vented, let me tell you why I loathe it.
I must confess that this argument stems from a minority -- a vocal one, but a minority nonetheless -- who quickly point to Bryan Reynolds' BABIP of .442 as a surefire sign that he will regress to something more akin to a normal rookie rather than the trailblazing, contact-oriented dynamo he has shown to be thus far.
Let's get one thing right. That BABIP will regress. .442 is simply an unsustainable figure. I'm surprised it has remained that high for this long. But there are reasons for Reynolds' high mark that show that it is well-earned. At least for now.
First, let's start with the fact that Reynolds' average exit velocity is only 5 miles per hour better in his hits than his outs:
Here, we see each Pirates hitter with at least 50 plate appearances, plus Jacob Stallings (49) and Jose Osuna (48). Giving this look helps us put BABIP in the proper context.
On the one hand, we can use BABIP to inch toward stating that Kevin Newman might be benefiting from a bit of luck, with his hits not having a much higher average exit velocity than his outs. The same can be true for Corey Dickerson, even though his small sample size plays a part.
Might we even say that Jung Ho Kang has been unlucky, with his outs leaving his bat at 89.5 mph? The answer is subjective, but his .175 BABIP certainly makes it seem so. Now, a hypothetical: What if Kang had Newman's average exit velo figures? Would we consider that low, low batting average on balls in play as unlucky? Or would we consider it to ring true, as his contact skills bear that out? Chances are, we would arrive at the fact that his bat has run into some unfortunate outs.
Of course, one thing that we can all agree on is that Josh Bell's BABIP is certainly well-earned and true, with his outs the loudest, right alongside Kang, and his hits leading the pack.
Back to Reynolds. To those that insist that his performance is bound to regress, I say this: You're right. Yet, without pointing to the proper context, each and every argument made that references his BABIP rings hollow. Instead, let's look at the measurables that tell us if the regression will be precipitous or measured.
For one, how about his 87.7 exit velocity in two-strike counts, when pitchers have an inestimable upper hand? His .365 xwOBA overall? Those represent the second- and fourth-best figures among Pirates hitters, respectively. Not enough? Well then, let's add the fact that he has gotten much better against breaking and offspeed pitches as the season has drawn on:
This bit of context helps us to fully understand how Reynold's BABIP can remain so high. At a point in which other rookie batters might be going through the normal peaks and valleys that naturally occur, Reynolds's trajectory has maintained a steady course.
Without looking deeper, we might have looked rather foolish if Reynolds continues to play like one of the most productive rookies in Pirates memory, rather than fall off the cliff as his BABIP suggests that he will.
MORE MOUND VISIT
June 27: How Bell became an All Star
June 26: Inside Melky’s slump
June 25: Quick fixes for the bullpen
June 24: Big Joe’s comeback
