UNIONDALE, N.Y. -- Scratching Jack Johnson doesn't singularly set the stage for any Stanley Cup playoff outcome, and it'd be silly to suggest anything of the sort. In fact, I'd place a Belmont-level bet that this particular outcome, the Penguins' 4-3 overtime loss to the Islanders in their series opener Wednesday night at Nassau Coliseum, wouldn't have been altered in any way had Johnson been swapped into the lineup for any one player.
No, not even Olli Maatta.
At the same time, I think it'd be equally silly to suggest that several of Mike Sullivan's moves, headlined by the outright stunning scratching of Johnson, didn't mightily contribute ... not just to the outcome, but also the many messes that preceded it.
Let's first hold the following five truths to be self-evident:
• The Penguins went 16-6-5 to close out the regular season, performing with greater consistency than at any other point.
• The defensemen -- meaning the men, not the team concept -- also were at their peak.
• Matt Murray, in making 21 of 22 starts with a .927 save percentage, also was at his peak.
• The fourth line of Teddy Blueger, Matt Cullen and Garrett Wilson, while no dynamo, had begun contributing for the first time, and that would be vital against New York's famously tough fourth line.
• Brian Dumoulin was entering these playoffs mighty iffy because of a lower-body injury that, as recently as a couple days ago, rendered him unable to skate on his own, much less practice. Similarly, Zach Aston-Reese had only this week shed his no-contact sweater after a three-week injury absence.
Got all that?
Any disagreement so far?
OK, stay with me. It's about to become a fitful struggle to grasp what followed. Because Sullivan's moves in advance of Game 1 included:
• Inserting Aston-Reese at the expense of Blueger, who's done nothing but exceed expectations over all 200 feet of ice since his promotion and whose presence on the fourth line offered at least a prayer of occasional pop. In turn, predictably, Aston-Reese, notoriously slow to regain form anytime he returns from injury, could barely budge all through this Game 1. And the fourth line as a whole was emasculated by their New York counterparts.
• Bringing back Dumoulin prematurely. And sorry, I don't have a friendlier way to word it after Dumoulin looked anything like his usual self over the entirety of this Game 1.
• Scratching Johnson.
And this, in the totality of the above context, is where that last item stings the most: Sullivan unsettled the Penguins when they least needed it.
He overthought it.
He overwrought it.
To renew the emphasis here, Johnson isn't some All-Star — he absolutely was an overpay on Jim Rutherford's part last summer, and he undeniably struggled through two-thirds of the season.
But no head coach anywhere should conceive of deploying a player for all 82 games, having him log the fifth-most ice time on the team at an average of 19:17, watching him give up his body for a team-high 233 hits and 147 blocks, sending him out as the lone defenseman when killing a five-on-three ... then strip away his sweater for Game 1 of the playoffs.
It's a terrible signal. Not just to Johnson, who I'm told was crushed by this, but also to the entire team. He's a legit leader in there and, though this really shouldn't be a factor, he's also lifelong buds with the resident franchise icon.
Does that mean Sidney Crosby will pout or complain?
Wow, no.
Does that mean the team took to the ice fretting over Johnson's absence?
Probably not past the awkward warmups.
But it's unsettling, and I'm applying the term literally. Things had been settled, and then they weren't. The team had all but solved the mega-breakdowns that had plagued them through the season's first four months, and then they allowed the overtime goal from hell.
Say what one will of Johnson's value, or even the respective value of hits, blocked shots and logging lots of ice, but I'm not talking about how we think. I'm talking about how they, those inside hockey, think. And their culture values what he brings more than what I'm comfortable trying to describe here since I'm not one of them and can only try to convey.
They love the guy. And for 82 games, he was there for them, night in, night out, until the first game that counted.
Unsettling.
Would it have had the same impact had Maatta been scratched?
No chance. Although a two-time champion, Maatta recently came off an injury of his own. And earlier in the season, he'd already been a healthy scratch.
How about Marcus Pettersson?
The kid's been terrific, but he's also 22 and a rookie. If he sits and the gap between his general work and Johnson's isn't significant -- it isn't -- there isn't the same effect.
But there's also a pure hockey component at hand.
I'd been reminding readers all week that the Islanders, though defensively conscientious, were anything but the '95 Devils. They bite hard in all three zones, and that includes hitting to punctuate the point. For all the fuss over the numbers they push back, they also pack the pounds when pushing forward.
So after this game demonstrated that aggressive aspect, Sullivan answered a question about that thusly: "It's everything we expected. We knew they're a team that has a heavy forecheck, a high dump-in rate, and we knew they were going to put pucks in deep and try to be physical. We knew exactly the game we were going to be up against."
OK, so he'd want to scratch his most physical, durable defenseman ... why, exactly?
Even Erik Gudbranson went down in this one, victim to an ugly slew-foot into the end boards by the Islanders' Anders Lee. With Dumoulin just back, with Kris Letang in and out because of the neck issue ... I don't get it. I just don't.
Sullivan also answered a question, of course, about scratching Johnson: "It's a very difficult decision. We talked about it for a week. Jack's played a lot of great hockey for us. I told him he's going to be a big part of it moving forward. He's such a great teammate. He took it really well."
He undoubtedly did. In the coach's office.
This isn't hindsight, I swear. None of it. This is essentially the column I'd have written a half-hour before faceoff, it's the column I'd have written had the Penguins prevailed by a half-dozen, and I've got timestamped proof:
I'll say this: If you're the head coach who scratches a guy for Game 1 after he plays all 82 games and leads your team in blocked shots, you'd better win Game 1. #DKPS #Penguins
— Dejan Kovacevic (@Dejan_Kovacevic) April 10, 2019
I respect Sullivan, on and off the ice, in ways I've respected precious few coaches and managers I've covered. But this was all ill-conceived.
He can do much better in Game 2. Ideally, by doing a lot less.
• My choice beforehand for the scratch would have been Pettersson, because of all of the above. My choice in blatant hindsight would have been to rest Dumoulin another couple days.
• For what it's worth, I saw Gudbranson passing through a hallway to the locker room after the game. No bandaging of any kind, nothing visibly amiss with his casual walk. That doesn't mean he isn't hurt, obviously, but it wouldn't seem it's serious.
If Gudbranson's back, Maatta has to sit for Johnson. He was getting torched all night, including physically but also, for crying out loud, on an inside-out move in overtime by Tom Kuhnhackl of all people.
He knew it, too:
• Give Maatta this much: That interview up there came of his own volition. He returned to the room after his postgame training, made known he'd be available for questions as he was returning -- some reporters were already leaving -- then stood there and took it all.
His teammates could learn a little of that.
Within a couple minutes of the room being open to media, all that was left to answer for this was the captain and the goaltender. Imagine leaving Murray out to dry, as the Penguins did by handing out 15 high-danger scoring chances among the Islanders' 33 shots -- almost half! -- then bailing and leaving him to explain what went wrong on that overtime goal.
• Murray was run in this game in a way he hadn't been run in months.
Know who he'll identify as the main reason he hadn't been getting run?
Gudbranson and Johnson.
• At the other end, Robin Lehner made a handful of exceptional saves among his 41 total, but those included only five on rebound attempts. Not coincidentally, all three times the Penguins beat him, they either had traffic in his way or an all-out screen, like this one by Jake Guentzel on Justin Schultz's tying slapper late with 1:29 left in regulation:
Or this one earlier on Evgeni Malkin's power-play point flick, courtesy of Patric Hornqvist's hovering rear end:
I asked Guentzel if maybe more of that activity will be in order for Game 2, and he didn't hesitate:
• Crosby didn't have his best night. Odd decisions, no points, couple shots, three giveaways, 10-14 in the circle. And if the Penguins had taken this one, that would have been sent the outlook for Game 2 into orbit, since there's virtually no chance he'll have another of these in this series.
• I'll repeat this until my face is as blue as the Islanders' logo: The NHL needs to take crosschecking seriously. A spine will be shattered. Cal Clutterbuck got away with a lot with his lumber, but a couple of them were bona fide dangerous, notably one that flattened Jared McCann and drew no penalty. The Penguins weren't angels in this area, either. This needs to be exorcised from the game.
Only this league could effectively ban hooking, tripping and, to an extent, slashing, but allow crosschecking to become the minor penalty of choice.
• Want a bright spot?
The playoff version of Phil Kessel emerged from his Punxsutawney hole and was a sight to behold:
Better yet, the Penguins as a whole thoroughly blew up Barry Trotz's best-laid plans to minimize their offense, amassing an amazing 83 shot attempts and an almost amazing 58.82 Corsi For percentage of owning possession. If that pattern's sustained through the next four games, the Islanders will be out in five. Taylor Haase has much more on this in her game analysis.
Also bear in mind the enormity of the Schultz goal in the moment, covered by Sunday in his View from Ice Level. This team does dumb things, but it's damned persistent.
MATT SUNDAY GALLERY
Penguins at Islanders, Game 1, Uniondale, N.Y., April 10, 2019 - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS