Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
During Week 14, the NFL seemingly tried to deliver an early holiday gift to the Steelers. With the Ravens, Patriots and Texans all suffering defeats, Pittsburgh had a prime opportunity to lock down the AFC North, improve its playoff seeding, and at least stay in the hunt for a first-round bye. Instead, the black and gold once again got sucked into the Black Hole.
There's no shortage of culprits for the latest West Coast debacle. But, as kicker Chris Boswell laid on the kinda-sorta-turf in Oakland after a Charlie Brown-esque field goal attempt, one thing became very clear: Good grief, the Steelers' special teams are a mess.
Just how bad has the special teams play been?
Let's count the ways:
• Boswell, who converted on 89.5% of his field goal attempts and 97.1% of his extra-point attempts during the 2015-2017 seasons, is just 10 of 16 on field goals this season (62.5%) and 39 of 44 on PATs (88.6%). Boswell has the lowest field goal percentage among qualified kickers, and the third-lowest PAT percentage. The Steelers' $20 million kicker showed uncanny accuracy from long distance from 2015-17, making 35 out of 42 field goal attempts (83.3%) that came from 40+ yards away. This year, he's 4-for-9 on attempts from 40+ yards (44.4%).
• The Steelers rank 28th in the NFL in kick return average (19.4 yards per return), and 14th in punt return average (8.3 yards). Pittsburgh is actually doing a good job of limiting opponents' kick returns (20.6 yards, fifth-best), but the punting game is a different story. The Steelers are allowing an NFL-worst 15.3 yards per punt return, due to a combination of blown coverages and short kicks from Jordan Berry, who has the seventh-lowest yards per punt average (44.3) among qualified players.
• The penalties. All of those penalties. The Steelers' special teams players have been flagged an NFL-leading 24 times, according to NFL Penalty Tracker. Collectively, all of that yellow laundry has cost the team 227 yards.
Boswell's erratic kicking has made every trip to the red zone feel like a TD-or-bust situation. And the poor, oft-penalized play on kick and punt returns means that the Steelers often begin drives at a disadvantage in terms of field position. On average, Pittsburgh begins a drive on its own 26 yard line (30th in the NFL) while opponents begin drives on their own 29 (11-highest average starting position).
Add it all up, and the Steelers' special teams are a liability. Football Outsiders tracks a stat called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), which evaluates every NFL play and assigns a value based on the outcome, game situation, and the average success rate for the play type. For special teams, DVOA accounts for field goals and extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts and punt returns. A positive DVOA means that a team has better than average special teams, while a negative number means they're worst than average. In 2017, the Steelers had the ninth-best special teams DVOA. This year, they're near the bottom of the league:
The Steelers won 13 games last year in part because their special teams--and especially their near-automatic kicker--gave them an advantage in close contests. This year, Danny Smith's unit could be the reason that they miss the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
MORE STEELERS
• Tortured by tight ends: Against Oakland, the Steelers surrendered a collective ten catches, 148 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends. That's not the first time--nor likely the last--that Pittsburgh has been burned by opposing tight ends. According to Pro-Football Reference, opponents have thrown 105 total targets to tight ends against the Steelers (third-most in the NFL). Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most receptions to tight ends (73) and the eighth-most receiving yards (853). Pittsburgh's linebackers can rush the passer, but they're often overmatched when dropping back in coverage. And the "dime linebacker" who's sometimes tasked with covering hulking tight ends is either oft-injured (Morgan Burnett) or undersized (Cam Sutton). Even if he's not quite the player he used to be, expect to see a heavy dose of Rob Gronkowski at Heinz Field next Sunday.
• Losing Close: In 2017, the Steelers rolled to a 13-3 regular season record by finding improbable ways to win close games. They weren't necessarily a dominant team, ranking seventh in the NFL in point differential per game (+6.1), but they went a combined 8-1 in games that were decided by a touchdown or less. This year, the law of averages has hit the 7-5-1 Steelers hard. Pittsburgh's point differential hasn't changed all that much (+4.7 per game, ninth in the NFL), but they're 4-4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. With less luck and a lousy special teams unit that has cost them in close games, the Steelers' playoff odds have dipped from practically automatic (97% entering Week 12, according to the FiveThirtyEight website) to more of a coin flip (62%).
PENGUINS
• The Sprong saga: The brief, infuriating Penguins career of Daniel Sprong has come to an end. The final tally? 42 games played, four goals, nine points, an average of 9:40 of ice time per game, and infinite Twitter flip-outs over the way that coach Mike Sullivan deployed the 21-year-old as a miscast third-or-fourth-line player. Perhaps the biggest "what if?" for Penguins fans is what would have happened if Sprong had just been given an extended stretch of ice time on Sidney Crosby's wing. The all-too-brief glimpse of those two together was promising. In about 66 minutes of ice time that Sprong and Crosby shared, the Penguins generated 62% of total shot attempts and 74.6% of scoring chances. When Sprong skated without Sid, the Penguins generated just 49.1 of total shots and 51.2% of scoring chances.
• Pettersson: a poor man's Dumoulin? Penguins GM Jim Rutherford admitted that the player for whom he traded Sprong, Marcus Pettersson, doesn't carry as much upside. But Rutherford also noted that the 22-year-old Swedish defenseman has some qualities that remind him of a younger Brian Dumoulin. Maybe that's true, but Pettersson's early work in the NHL suggests he's a work in progress. Since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, 214 defensemen have logged at least 600 minutes of ice time in five-on-five situations. Pettersson ranks 198th in the percentage of shots generated when he's on the ice (45.3%), and 190th in terms of scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes of ice time (29.4). That doesn't mean he's a bust, or that Rutherford is crazy. It just means that, as is the case with Finnish blue liner Juuso Riikola, he's a long-term bet rather than a plug-and-play NHL starter.
• Brother can you spare a goal? Over the summer, the Penguins locked up Bryan Rust with a four-year extension worth an average of $3.5 million per season. At his current scoring pace, the speedy winger will earn more than a million bucks per goal in 2018-19. After averaging 14 goals per season the previous two years, Rust has scored just once. His points-per-game rate has dipped from a career-high 0.55 last year to 0.24. Rust is averaging a career-low 1.45 shots per game, and his 2.4 shooting percentage is a far cry from his 9.1% career average. While Rust isn't shooting as often, that crazy-low shooting percentage screams bad luck. The Corsica Hockey website calculates expected goals based on the quality of shots that a player attempts, taking into account factors like shot distance, shot type, shot angle, rebounds, and game situation. Based on Rust's shot quality, his expected goals total this season is 4.3--a figure that would amount to about 13 goals over a full season. Eventually, a few bounces should go Rust's way.
PIRATES
• An uphill climb in the NL Central: After winning a better-than-expected 82 games last season and acquiring long-term talents like Chris Archer and Keone Kela at the deadline, can the Pirates take the next step and contend in 2019? Fangraphs' 2019 team projections suggest it's doable, if not exactly likely. Pittsburgh is projected to go 81-81 next year, trailing the Cubs (88 projected wins) and Cardinals (87), but besting the upstart Brewers (forecast to fall back with 78 wins). The offense (projected to rank 10th in the National League in runs scored) could be a trouble spot. And, unlike in St. Louis, Paul Goldschmidt isn't walking through that door.
• A rough rookie class: If it seemed like most of the Pirates' minor league call-ups scuffled in 2018, you're on to something. Last year, Pirates rookie position players were a collective 18% worse than the average MLB hitter once you account for park factors and league-wide scoring trends, according to Fangraphs. Their Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total--a measure of overall batting, fielding, and base-running value compared to a waiver-wire-caliber player--was a negligible 0.1 (21st among MLB teams). Pittsburgh's rookie pitchers fared somewhat better (1.4 WAR, 15th in the majors) thanks to strong bullpen contributions by Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick.
• If Baines is in, what about Parker? With the recent, rather shocking selection of Harold Baines for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pirates fans who are sore about Dave Parker's Cooperstown exclusion have a new reason to gripe. During his career, Baines compiled 38.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Parker, meanwhile, had 41.1 WAR. Of course, you can argue that neither guy should be in--the average Hall of Fame position player compiled 69 career WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. But if Baines makes it, guys like the Cobra have more of a case. Heck, Andrew McCutchen (48.6 career WAR despite falling way off his early-career, MVP-level pace) might eventually have a case. Is the induction of Baines an outlier, or a sign that the Hall of Fame standard is weakening? Stay tuned.
COLLEGES
• Pitt's ground game advantage: Entering the 2018 season, few would have thought that the Panthers would have a decided advantage over Stanford in the running game. But that's clearly the case as Pitt prepares for its Sun Bowl opponent. The Panthers rank 18th among FBS teams in rushing yards per game (229.5) and 14th in yards per carry (5.6), led by the school's first pair of 'backs to gain 1,000+ yards in the same season in Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. Stanford, by contrast, ranks 123rd in rushing yards per game (108.3) and 109th in yards per attempt (3.7). Bryce Love, last year's Heisman runner-up who churned out 2,118 yards at 8.1 per carry, has seen his production--and likely his NFL draft stock--take a tumble. Slowed in part by an early-season ankle injury, Love ran for just 739 yards with an average of 4.5 per carry.
• Seeing red: When Penn State faces Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl, it will be a matchup of two of the top red-zone defenses in the country. The Nittany Lions have allowed opponents to score just 71.9% of the time in the red zone (the fifth-lowest rate in the FBS), and have allowed a touchdown 59.5% of the time (62nd). The Wildcats rank 18th in opponent red zone scoring (76.5%) and 11th in touchdowns (47.1%). On offense, however, Penn State holds a decided red zone advantage. The Nittany Lions' offense has scored 92.3% of the time within the 20-yard line (6th-best in the FBS) and scored a TD 75% of the time (8th). Kentucky, though? They have a red zone scoring rate of only 79.4% (101st) and have hit pay dirt 58.8% (91st).
• A turning point: The Pitt men's basketball team has made marked progress under head coach Jeff Capel, having almost matched last year's season-long win total with a collection of young talent that looks up to Atlantic Coast Conference standards. But if the Panthers are going to legitimately challenge for some kind of postseason tournament, they're going to have to do a better job of handling the ball. Pitt has committed an average of 14.3 turnovers per game, ranking 279th in the nation. Their 0.95 assist-to-turnover ratio places them 178th nationally. Freshmen Xavier Johnson (3.5 turnovers per game) and Trey McGowens (2.5) have shown serious promise, but they have work to do when it comes to protecting the rock.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Going for Two: Entering the 2015 season, the NFL decided to raise the degree of difficulty on extra points by having kickers boot PATs from the 15-yard line, rather than from the two-yard line. Following that change, PATs went from a total gimme (99.3% success rate in 2014, the last year before the rule change) to a less certain proposition (94.1% so far this season). With PATs no longer a sure thing--just ask Chris Boswell--teams have responded by attempting more two-point conversions. So far in 2018, teams have attempted an average of 0.27 two-point conversions per game, which is the highest clip in league history. So, are the two-point attempts worth it? The break-even point on a two-point conversion is a success rate of about 48%. Clubs are converting two-point attempts 50.4% of the time, they're getting a modest boost from the extra tries. The Steelers have four two-point attempts this season (tied for 11th among all teams) and have converted on three of those occasions.
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